NFL Week 11 is upon us, and we have three more NFL underdog picks against the point spread, including a quick analysis of each matchup.
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With underdogs covering in 11 of the 14 matchups, I capitalized with a 3-0 Week 10, upping my ATS season record to 13-16-1. Nine of my 13 underdog ATS winners have won the game outright.
NFL underdog picks for Week 11: Indianapolis Colts (+4 bet365) at New York Jets
Indy has lost three straight to fall out out of the AFC playoff picture at 4-6.
As a result, the Colts are once again flip-flopping starting quarterbacks, going back to second-year pro Anthony Richardson over turnover-prone veteran Joe Flacco, who has four interceptions and a pair of fumbles over his last two outings.
Nonetheless, the Colts still rank as one of the league’s best ATS teams this season with a 7-3 mark vs. the number.
It’s exactly the inverse for Aaron Rodgers and the grounded Jets who are 1-6 both SU and ATS since a 2-1 start.
We’ll stick with those trends and go with the visiting Colts to cover Sunday in Jersey.
NFL underdog picks for Week 11: Los Angeles Rams (+4.5 Caesars) at New England
Coach Sean McVay’s Rams (4-5) saw their three-game win streak end in Monday night’s 23-15 loss to the visiting Miami Dolphins. It was a game in which L.A. was held out of the end zone for the first time since Week 9 last season.
Now the Rams are venturing across the country on a short week for an early Sunday kickoff (10 a.m. Pacific time).
They’ll be facing rookie QB Drake Maye and the 3-7 Pats who have won two of three since a 1-6 start, including a 19-3 domination of the host Chicago Bears last Sunday.
The Rams have the talent and coaching edges in this matchup. But asking a team with bottom third scoring offense and defense to cover 4.5 points on the road in a short week against an improving foe is a tough ask.
NFL underdog picks for Week 11: Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5 DraftKings) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Bengals are attempting to overcome a 1-4 start to climb back into the AFC playoff picture after a slow start and have won three of their last five to that end.
It’s hardly been the fault of QB Joe Burrow who has thrown six times as many TD passes (24) as interceptions (4) and leads the league with 2,672 passing yards while ranking among the top three in QBR and passer rating.
Fellow 2020 first-round QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers currently are holding down one of the conference’s three wild-card spots at 6-3 and are riding a three-game win streak.
L.A.’s strength has been its defense which is limiting foes to a league-low 13.1 points per game while forcing 13 turnovers.
But in doing so, the Bolts have largely taken advantage of one of the league’s softest schedules with all of their wins coming against .500-or-worse teams.
Yeah, we realize the 4-6 Bengals fit that very profile.
But Burrow and Co. are easily the best offense the Chargers have faced, and that should prove to be the difference in a tightly-contested Sunday night matchup.
