The Opponent: The University of Kentucky was founded in 1865 as the Agricultural and Mechanical College of Kentucky. The school’s current enrollment is over 30,000 total students. Kentucky began playing football in 1881 and is a charter member of the Southeastern Conference. The school’s all-time record in football is 644-647-44. Kentucky joins Vanderbilt and Mississippi State as the only SEC schools with a historical winning percentage below 50%. Kentucky is coached by Mark Stoops, in his 12th season in the Bluegrass State. Stoops’ approval rating has probably never been lower amongst Big Blue Nation. Unfortunately, his buyout currently sits at $44 million, a friendly reminder that there is no better job in America than a fired college football coach.
Are they any good?: Based on October’s results, Kentucky is not a good football team. The Cats played Georgia within one point at home in September, before going on the road and winning in Oxford. Kentucky was 0-3 in the month of October, though, losing by a combined 49 points to Vanderbilt, Florida, and Auburn. Kentucky has struggled offensively all season, ranked dead last in the SEC in scoring. The surprise is that the wheels have fallen off this Kentucky defense in recent weeks. Mark Stoops’ program has always hung its hat on quality defenses. It has historically kept the Cats competitive in most games. It is a big reason that Stoops’ national reputation far exceeds his career 28-60 record in the SEC. Kentucky has been unrecognizable on defense the past several weeks though. That has led this Kentucky bunch to look like a really bad team.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: I think this game will tell us if we are ever going to see a dangerous Tennessee offense in 2024. That does not mean scoring 40+ points, or resembling the 2022 unit in any way. Can the Vols string together four quarters of consistent offensive output in a conference game, though? Tennessee has been held scoreless in three straight first halves, the first time that has happened since the early 1960’s. Opening drive turnovers have doomed any early momentum in the last two games. Given what Florida and Auburn just did to this Kentucky defense in consecutive weeks, the Vols have no excuses not to produce early Saturday night. That is especially true coming off a bye week. This Kentucky defense is banged up and demoralized. Tennessee has to capitalize on that early in this game. For those fans waiting to see a complete Tennessee offense, Saturday night should offer a nice opportunity. If not now, then when?
What does Vegas say?: This line opened up at Tennessee -15.5 on Sunday. It currently sits at -16.5 at most sports books. Kentucky is 4-4 ATS this season, including 2-0 as underdogs. Kentucky game totals have only gone Over twice this season. Tennessee is now 5-2 ATS on the season. Tennessee game totals have gone Under in four straight games now. The game total Saturday night is just 45.5, one of the lowest figures we have seen since very early in the Josh Heupel era.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Lean into your advantage. Tennessee’s deep and talented defensive front has led this team throughout the fall. The big bodies for the Vols should be well rested after a bye week, and appear to have a significant advantage over Kentucky’s offensive line. The Cats are allowing 3.0 sacks per game in conference play, and an average of six tackles for loss per game. Kentucky is not getting much push in the run game either, just 3.36 yards per carry in SEC play. The Wildcats will be without their starting right tackle in former Vol Gerald Mincey. Mincey’s replacement, Malachi Wood, scored an astounding 0.00 grade from Pro Football Focus for his pass blocking against Auburn. Tennessee needs to press its advantage over Kentucky in this game. Eight different Tennessee linemen have double-digit tackles for the season. Eleven Vol linemen have more than one tackle for loss. Rodney Garner’s unit needs to continue to throw fresh bodies against an undermanned Kentucky front. No team has thrown more interceptions in SEC play than Kentucky. A lot of that is due to substandard quarterback play. A lot of that is due to quarterbacks under constant duress though. If Tennessee’s defensive line can bottle up the Wildcat ground game, then the Vols can put Kentucky in some uncomfortable situations. This is the biggest mismatch in this game. Tennessee has to exploit it as much as possible.
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Matchup to watch on Offense: Let the zone-read power your offense. Kentucky’s defense actually started their game against Auburn magnificently. Defensive coordinator Brad White does a really good job with zone coverages. He perfectly baited Auburn’s Payton Thorne into an early interception with the zone scheme. It is the type of coverage that has given Nico Iamaleava trouble in his young career. At some point last week, Hugh Freeze decided he was done throwing the football though. Auburn absolutely ran it down Kentucky’s throat in the second half of that game. In total, the Tigers ran for nearly 360 yards at Kroger Field. In reality, nothing was working well for the Kentucky defense. That was especially true when senior linebacker JJ Weaver exited the game right before halftime. Auburn found its most success with spread formations and simple zone-read runs. It is a concept very familiar to Josh Heupel’s offense. Tennessee ran it for 254 yards last season against Kentucky. They ran it for 177 yards against the Cats in 2022. Those were both Kentucky defenses ranked towards the top of the SEC in terms of stopping the run. This year’s Wildcat bunch has not been nearly as stiff against opponents’ ground games though. Weaver is already confirmed out for Saturday night, a big blow for Big Blue. While fans want to see the continued improvement of the Tennessee passing game, the Vols will run as much as Kentucky lets them Saturday night. Nico’s passing seemed to improve after a few second-half runs against the Tide. Expect to see #8 pull a few balls out of that zone-read look. Tennessee will need to do just enough to keep Kentucky honest and try to confuse some backup linebackers. The quarterback has to keep a few balls to do so. If the Vols can get past the line of scrimmage then expect to see missed tackles from second-string players. Kentucky could not stop the Auburn run game last week, so that is the obvious place for the Vols to start.
Fun Fact: Some estimate the American Bison population as high as 60 million at the time of the American Revolution. An animal that we typically associate with the American West once roamed from coast to coast throughout the American interior. Buffalo were rampant throughout Kentucky in the early 19th century. Before pioneers and frontiersmen made use of the Cumberland Gap, it was a well-worn Buffalo Trace into the heartland of Kentucky. While most Americans know the American Bison is now an endangered and protected species, it is hard to fathom the effects of commercial and systematic hunting on an animal that once dominated this young country. Estimated populations went from upwards to 60 million to under 1,000 total by the early 1900’s. That number is thankfully continuing its slow and steady increase thanks to careful conservation plans and protected habitats. One such area is Big Bone Lick State Park in Northern Kentucky. Visitors can see a small, but growing, bison herd in this 500+ acre state park.
So what happens?: Kentucky comes into Neyland Stadium absolutely reeling. The Cats are high on injuries, and low on confidence. It’s a location where Kentucky has won just once since 1984. Meanwhile, Tennessee is 17-1 at home since the start of 2022. From statistics to overall vibes, everything points to a Tennessee romp Saturday night. Tennessee has to jump on Kentucky early and kick them while they are down. Don’t let the Cats rediscover that confidence they played with in late September. Defensively, I expect Kentucky to sell out against the Tennessee run. Brad White and Mark Stoops can not be happy watching the Auburn tape, and surely will do everything in their power to prevent Dylan Sampson from rushing for 200+ on the Cats. They will gamble on making Nico Iamaleava beat them with his arm and his decision-making. Expect a mix of coverages, with multiple different zone looks. Kentucky has the pass rushers to hurry Nico into quick decisions. Deone Walker is a one-man wrecking crew wearing #0 for the Cats. How much confidence and momentum does Tennessee’s young quarterback carry over after a strong second half versus Alabama? Tennessee has had a lot of success finding big plays early against this Kentucky defense, and I expect the same on Saturday. Tennessee will find a chunk play early, and finally find its way into the endzone in the first half. The availability of Kentucky corner DJ Waller Jr will loom large for a Kentucky secondary that allowed 35+ yards per catch last time it played on the road. Tennessee’s receivers have to be looking forward to this matchup. Kentucky has allowed fifteen passing plays of 30+ yards on the season.
Offensively, it is hard to find many positives for this Kentucky offense. Junior receivers Dane Key and Barion Brown are both playmakers, but they just don’t seem to get the ball often enough. The talk all summer was that Kentucky was going to modernize the tempo of their offense under first-year coordinator Bush Hamdan. That has not happened. Whether Stoops superseded his new offensive coordinator, or they both realized they don’t have the personnel to play fast, we may never know. This remains a slow and plodding Kentucky offense though. The reality is no offensive scheme is going to look good with Kentucky’s offensive line play. The Cats’ line was dominated by Auburn’s defensive front last weekend. The Tigers took away the Kentucky run game, already without starting tailback Demie Sumo-Karngbaye. It forced the Cats to take lower percentage shots downfield, mostly to Key. When that proved ineffective, Kentucky turned to backup QB Gavin Wimsatt for a more chaotic approach to offense. Mark Stoops either is not sure who his quarterback will be Saturday night, or he does not want to tip his hand. Both things are probably true, and Tennessee will likely see both Vandagriff and Wimsatt Saturday night. I am not sure how much it will matter. This Tennessee defensive front against this Kentucky offensive line is a massive mismatch. The Cats may find Key or Brown for some big completions. Wimsatt may scramble for a few first downs. It is very hard to imagine Kentucky sustaining drives against the backdrop of a raucous home crowd for Tennessee. If the Vols can start hot, then it is fair to question how much fight Kentucky will put up playing from behind. Coming off a bye week, I expect Tennessee to start much better offensively. It will be a fairly balanced approach, with Dylan Sampson leading the way. The Vols will get Kentucky down early. Tennessee’s defensive front will start to flex its muscle as Kentucky is forced to play outside its comfort zone. That will lead to a few second-half turnovers, that will make this final score pretty lopsided. Vols 38, Wildcats 13
