Tennessee football returns to Neyland Stadium to face rival Alabama on the Third Saturday in October. It’s a critical SEC showdown with major College Football Playoff stakes for both teams as the Crimson Tide are slight favorites in the showdown.
Each week, the RTI team will provide game predictions for Tennessee’s matchup.
We move on to the Alabama Crimson Tide.
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Jack Foster
Man, this is the most conflicted I’ve been on a game since I can remember. Both teams enter having had about the same experience over the last month. Big win (sure, Alabama’s was bigger), followed by an inexcusable road loss (Alabama’s was worse), followed by an ugly performance in a narrow win at home over a team that should’ve been beaten by two or more touchdowns.
This is also a matchup of good vs. good and bad vs. bad. Tennessee’s defense is one of the best in the country and will square off against an Alabama offense that has quarterback Jalen Milroe, who is fifth in Heisman odds, and freshman phenom Ryan Williams at wide receiver, among other great players.
Tennessee’s offense has significantly underwhelmed and will face off against an Alabama defense that hasn’t been good in the last 10 quarters, surrendering 92 points.
So what gives? Does this set up better for Tennessee or not? The gap is wider between Alabama’s defense and Tennessee’s offense, meaning I do not see this being the game the Vols’ offense breaks through and has a big day against a lackluster unit. But I also don’t see Alabama’s offense having a good day against the Tennessee defense, though it is more likely.
In a low-scoring game, I’m taking Alabama close. Both sides of the ball have been very impressive at times for the Tide (first half defense vs. Georgia), and the same cannot be said for Tennessee. The Vols’ defense will be on the field too much and the loss of Keenan Pili will be enough to prevent Tennessee from holding Alabama under three touchdowns, which will be needed in order to win.
Prediction: Alabama 24, Tennessee 20
Ric Butler
Much like I assume my RTI cohorts have, I’ve been rethinking this prediction all week.
I started the season thinking that this would be a win for Alabama despite believing that Tennessee was going to have a playoff-level team at this time. It would feel a little weird to now pick Tennessee despite the Vols’ emerging offensive struggles, but we’re also looking at a surprising Alabama team that lost to Vanderbilt and struggled against South Carolina last weekend.
This game is all about explosiveness. Neither offense has been particularly sound in consistent drives throughout games and has relied on explosive plays to get points on the board for the most part. Alabama struggled to hit those explosive plays last week which allowed Shane Beamer’s group to take advantage of mistakes and slow play to stay in the game. I like Alabama’s weapons and experienced quarterback here in this position but the great equalizer could be Tennessee’s pass rush – even without having enforcer Keenan Pili in the mix.
This game is about quarterback play, though. How will Jalen Milroe handle Tennessee’s defensive front? Will Nico Iamaleava step up when his team needs him to?
I think that Alabama has the better chance to win outright but Tennessee has a few more key factors that could make a difference – starting with the crowd.
Everything in me wants to pick Alabama in this game. Heck, that’s where I started this season. But something in my gut tells me that Tennessee’s environment could be an X-Factor in this game. Both teams are on the heels right now but Tennessee has the fortune of being lifted by the crowd in Knoxville. I’m unconfidently picking the upset in Knoxville but I do think Tennessee will cover +3 either way.
Prediction: Tennessee 27, Alabama 24
Ryan Schumpert
The one though that’s remained in my head all week is that I’m not sure I can ever remember a top 12 matchup where both fanbases felt as poorly about their team and chances to win as this one. Both teams have looked extremely shaky in recent weeks, dropping games to unranked foes on the road two weeks ago before surviving as multi-score favorites at home a week ago.
It’s a super intriguing matchup because it’s strength-on-strength and weakness-on-weakness. Tennessee’s defense has been stout this season and despite a shaky performance last week, Alabama’s offense has been fantastic as well. On the other side things are more dicey, Tennessee’s offense has largely been lifeless in recent weeks while Alabama’s defense has had a myriad of issues in its last two games.
So what to make of the rivalry showdown? I think big plays will be the story of this game. Alabama’s offense has been a bit big play dependent and Tennessee’s red zone defense has been phenomenal all year. With Tennessee’s offensive line issues, it’s just hard for the Vols to sustain long drives down the field right now. Tennessee was close to hitting big plays a week ago. They have to connect on them this week.
The Vols’ defensive line against Alabama’s offensive front is the other matchup I’m watching. Last week when South Carolina’s defensive line was dominant, they really affected Jalen Milroe the way no one else has. If Tennessee is going to win, its defensive line needs to control the game.
For me, I trust Alabama’s ability to create big plays more than I trust Tennessee’s. And I trust Alabama’s weakness (defense) more than I trust Tennessee’s (offense). The home field could be the true equalizer that I’m overlooking. But I like the Crimson Tide to win in the rivalry clash.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Tennessee 24
