The Opponent: The University of Alabama was founded in 1820 as the University of the State of Alabama. The majority of the young campus was burned to the ground by Union troops just days before Robert E. Lee’s surrender at Appomattox. Alabama started playing football in 1892 and claims 18 national titles in its program history. The Tide are in their first season without Nick Saban since Mike Shula controlled the sidelines in 2006. In his place is Kalen DeBoer. DeBoer comes to Tuscaloosa with a career winning percentage over 90%. He already finds himself in uncharted waters after a loss to Vanderbilt. All can be made well for DeBoer with a win on the Third Saturday in October though. It is a rivalry in which Alabama holds the all-time advantage 59-39-7.
Are they any Good?: Yes, Alabama is a very good football team. That has been an easy question to answer for 15+ years now. We are witnessing Alabama in its first year post-Saban though. We have seen that this team is mortal in a loss to Vanderbilt. We have also seen that their best is as good as anyone’s. Alabama looked like a juggernaut of bygone years in the first half against Georgia. The Tide defense has looked fairly susceptible since halftime against Georgia though. It has been a unit plagued by poor tackling and mental lapses, especially in the secondary. Tennessee has to expect Alabama’s best, which is really good. With a win on Saturday, the Tide would still be considered a favorite to win the national championship.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: This game will tell us whether Tennessee really has a shot at the college football playoffs. A win on Saturday would put the Vols right back on solid ground in terms of making the final 12. A loss would all but eliminate Tennessee, outside of running the table with a win in Athens. It is possible a 9-3 team sneaks in, but that does not feel like the Vols at this point. Through no fault of their own, Tennessee does not have a quality win as of yet. NC State, Oklahoma and Florida will all struggle to reach bowl eligibility. The reality is Tennessee does not have many opportunities for a quality win this season. Saturday is one of those opportunities though. As anemic as the Volunteer offense has looked in conference play, maybe they are one game away from figuring something out. Paired with the Volunteer defense, that would certainly make Tennessee formidable against any team in the country. We will find out on Saturday whether they can hang with Alabama.
What does Vegas say?: This line opened up as Alabama -1.5 on Sunday. It currently sits at Alabama -2.5 or -3. The game total is anywhere from 56 to 57 points. These teams combined for 101 last time they played inside Neyland Stadium. Alabama is 3-3 ATS this season, whereas Tennessee is now 4-2. Tennessee has played in three straight games that have gone Under. Alabama games have hit the Over five of six times this season.
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Matchup to watch on Offense: Get Nico out of the pocket. Anyone who has watched Tennessee play since Oklahoma can see that Nico Iamaleava is not comfortable in the pocket. It is hard to blame him. His pass protection has not been good enough. In three conference games, the Vols have already given up 10 sacks. Even with a clean pocket though, Nico does not appear to always see the field clearly. He is waiting for open receivers, instead of throwing them open. He is holding onto the ball too long at times. Tennessee rolled Iamaleava out several times against Florida. He looked better in those instances. He showed the ability to hit the short and intermediate throws on the move. He also showed the ability to reset the pocket, and launch it deep. Getting outside of the pocket can also help Nico see the field more clearly. For a young QB, that can be tough when surrounded by a swarm of 300-pound men. Thus far, Kane Wommack’s Alabama defense does not resemble what we came to expect from Nick Saban. Don’t be fooled though, the Tide still have some very talented pass rushers. Alabama is still getting a consistent pass rush. Given what we have seen from Tennessee, it would be foolish to expect the Vols to consistently keep a clean pocket around their quarterback. Getting Nico on the move can also help integrate him more into the run game. That remains a missing component of this offense. More importantly, it is something Alabama has struggled with this season. Don’t pay attention to the box scores. College football nets out negative sack yardage. Alabama has struggled with mobile quarterbacks. Both Diego Pavia at Vanderbilt and LaNorris Sellers at South Carolina were very effective running against this defense. Byrum Brown at USF had a lot of success as well. Nico Iamaleava has playmaking ability if Tennessee can put him in comfortable spots. This Alabama defense has flaws that can be exploited. Tennessee’s best chance to exploit the Tide may start with getting its quarterback out of the pocket.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Don’t lose track of Ryan Williams. The Tide freshman receiver is a star. At just 17, Williams has amassed nearly 600 yards receiving through six games. He is averaging a gaudy 25 yards per catch. Unless Tennessee can get back to scoring 35+ points per game, the Vols will continue to play with less margin for error on defense. So far, this defense has been up to the task. Tennessee is giving up just 17 ppg through three SEC games, and 10.7 ppg in all competitions. This will be the Vols’ biggest challenge to date though. Ryan Williams can break a game open in one play. Tennessee can play consistently great defense in this game, but lose Williams just once and everything can change. Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III are both coming off their best game in Orange. They both are likely to draw Williams at various times. It isn’t just Tennessee’s corners that need to focus on Williams, it is the entire secondary. Safety help has to be there over the top when Alabama runs him deep. The entire defense needs to be ready to help get Williams on the ground after the catch. There are plenty of deep-threat receivers in college football. What has made Ryan Williams so impressive is he has been just as effective on short throws. For a guy who is still growing into his body, he is very difficult to tackle after the catch. Look for Alabama to target Williams 10+ times in this game. The Tide certainly have some other dangerous pass catchers, like Washington transfer Germie Bernard, but Williams is the home run hitter the Vols can’t lose track of.
Fun Fact: Only one touchdown was scored during Tennessee’s 10-9 victory over Alabama in 1968. It was by Richmond Flowers Jr, a young man who took the long road into the end zone that afternoon. Flowers was just months removed from heartbreak. He was considered the greatest American hurdler in 1968 but severely injured his hamstring in June of that year. Flowers tried to recover in time for the Olympic Trials in September, but to no avail. Instead, he returned to Doug Dickey and the Volunteer football team. It wasn’t Flowers’ first bout with adversity though, not even close. He grew up with one of the most famous names in the state of Alabama as the son of Richmond Flowers Sr. Sometimes history can convolute good versus bad, and even the benefit of hindsight can not discern the hero from the villain. This is not one of those times. Attorney General Richmond Flowers Sr fought doggedly against Governor George Wallace, the face of segregation in the American South. He kept up this fight even when reviled in his own community, facing constant death threats and alienation for doing what was right. That hatred led Richmond Flowers Jr to leave the state of Alabama, even while being heavily recruited by Bear Bryant. Flowers should be considered one of the greatest pure athletes to ever step foot on campus. The self-proclaimed “fastest white boy alive” will always be a part of the lore of the Third Saturday in October. His family name means so much more in the state of Alabama, and the American South as a whole.
So What Happens?: With or without the comments from AI Kalen DeBoer, Saturday sets up to be another great crowd inside Neyland Stadium. Tennessee is 21-4 at home under Josh Heupel, including 16-1 since the start of 2022. It is a clear home-field advantage for the Vols. Tennessee’s offense under Josh Heupel has always looked better at home. If you look for silver linings, the offense looked better in some regards versus Florida. The two turnovers from Iamaleava were brutal though, and 17 points in regulation is not going to beat Alabama. Tennessee has no choice but to build off of the marginal improvements though. One way or another, the Vols have to pressure this Alabama defense. Using tempo would certainly help, as would staying unpredictable on first down. A key matchup to watch is Tennessee’s offense on third down. The Vols are converting just 34% of their third down in conference play. Only Oklahoma’s offense has been worse. Alabama allowed both Vanderbilt and South Carolina to convert over 50% of their third downs. It is a Tide defense that has struggled with mental busts at times and therefore struggled to get off the field. Vanderbilt’s offense was on the field for 40+ minutes in Nashville. If Tennessee can keep Alabama’s defense on the field then Dylan Sampson will eventually have success in this game.
I already touched on Ryan Williams, but his quarterback may be the real wild card in this game. Jalen Milroe is a good quarterback, but a world-class athlete. Just as Ryan Williams can break the game open with one reception, so can Milroe with one run. It is a tough first game to be without Keenan Pili. Arion Carter and Jeremiah Telander will have to bring Milroe down in space at times. Tennessee has to pressure Milroe throughout the game. The Alabama quarterback has four interceptions through three SEC games. He has a few fumbles as well. It is hard to see Tennessee winning this game without forcing at least one turnover from Jalen Milroe. The reality is neither of these teams has played up to their potential in their last two games. That has produced plenty of angst amongst each fan base. Whose problems are more correctable though? That is probably the question going into the Third Saturday in October. I lean more towards Alabama there. The Tide defense certainly has its flaws, but it also has talent. Alabama’s mistakes have been more mental. While no guarantee, I think those are easier to clear up than some of the problems plaguing Tennessee’s offense. Kalen DeBoer is 18-4 all-time in one-score games. That includes 2-1 this season with Alabama, and 8-0 last season at Washington. He is playing with the more veteran quarterback and the more explosive offense. That all leads me to predict Alabama 31, Tennessee 23
