It’s on to October and Week 5, and that means three more NFL underdog picks against the point spread, complete with quick thoughts on each matchup.
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I got back on the winning track in Week 4 with two of my three underdog selections winning outright. That brings my ATS season record to 5-6-1.
NFL underdog picks for Week 5: New York Jets (+2.5 DraftKings) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Coach Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings are on quite a roll as one of the league’s two unbeaten teams at 4-0.
The surprising Vikes also boast the NFL’s lone 4-0 ATS record so far, covering by a league-high average of 16 points per game.
QB Sam Darnold — yes, that Sam Darnold — is listed among the top-five MVP favorites and Brian Flores’ Minnesota defense leads the league with 17 sacks and a 37.14 EPA.
Meanwhile, it’s been a mixed bag so far for veteran QB Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, who are 2-2 SU and ATS.
Gang Green is coming off a deeply disappointing 10-9 home loss to the Denver Broncos in which they were limited to a trio of field goals.
But Rodgers and Co. can gain much by studying the second half his former team, the Green Bay Packers, played last Sunday against the Vikings. Jordan Love and the Pack went to an up-tempo attack and outscored Minnesota 22-3 over the final 30 minutes to nearly pull off a stunning comeback.
It’s the first real wart the Vikings have shown this season, and the Jets have the offensive and defensive talent to pick up where the Packers left off and notch the upset win in London.
NFL underdog picks for Week 5: Arizona Cardinals (+7.5 BetMGM) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have owned this NFC West series of late, winning the last four meetings by an average score of 39-17.
The defending NFC champs, though, have been hit hard by injuries in their 2-2 start. They’ve also shown some cracks defensively, allowing a combined 50 points to the Vikings and Los Angeles Rams in back-to-back losses in Weeks 2 and 3.
QB Kyler Murray has played in only one of the Cards’ losses to the Niners over the past two seasons and has gone 2-2 against San Francisco as a starter since his rookie campaign of 2019.
Given Murray’s improved cast of weapons this season — including the expected return this week of talented tight end Trey McBride — and Arizona’s 23-17 overall ATS record as an underdog since 2021, we’re expecting the Cards to keep things close Sunday in Santa Clara.
NFL underdog picks for Week 5: New Orleans Saints (+5.5 FanDuel) at Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, we’re also fading the league’s other unbeaten team this week, the two-time defending Super Bowl-champion Chiefs.
K.C. is 4-0 but boasts only the seventh-best point differential in the league, winning by an average margin of five points per contest.
That often makes covering the spread a dicey proposition for the champs.
Since 2022, the Chiefs have been one of the league’s best home teams with a 13-5 regular season record.
However, they’re below .500 ATS at 7-10-1 in those games.
And now the injuries are piling up for Andy Reid’s team, especially on offense where running back Isiah Pacheco and wide receivers Rashee Rice and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown are all out and expected to miss significant time.
That’s affecting the Chiefs’ potency as Mahomes and Co. are currently a mid-tier NFL offense, raking 14th in both points (23.0) and total yards (328.3) per game.
That’s not the case for Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara and the rejuvenated Saints attack which is pacing the league with an average of 31.8 points per outing.
New Orleans also boasts the sixth-ranked scoring defense (17.5 points), giving us ample reason to expect a close game Monday night at Arrowhead.
