Tennessee football is off to a 3-0 start this season, annihilating a trio of non conference opponents to open up Josh Heupel’s fourth season as head coach. But things get ratcheted up to a new level this weekend when Tennessee travels to Norman to open up SEC play at Oklahoma.
Each week, the RTI team will provide game predictions for Tennessee’s matchup.
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Ric Butler
I picked Oklahoma before the season started because I expected the Sooners to look a good bit better than they have now. While Oklahoma still presents a stout defense orchestrated by Brent Venables, their offense has struggled. That’s a bit misleading, though. The Sooners have been banged up but according to the availability report Oklahoma looks to be getting a handful of key players back for this game, including their leading returning receiver from 2023, Nic Anderson.
Jackson Arnold is a capable quarterback but hasn’t been as polished in the first three games. The new wrinkle that was really exploited last week was Arnold’s legs, though, rushing for nearly 100 yards and two scores as a capable runner out of the pocket. Arnold has struggled against pressure without all of his weapons this season but can take advantage of gaps in the line with his legs. It’ll be important to stay gap-sound on Saturday night in Norman, staying in the lanes and not letting the quarterback escape when things break down. That being said, though, just look at the effort Tennessee’s defensive line has shown this season. There’s a play in the NC State game from Omari Thomas that really exemplifies Tennessee’s motor and drive, which will be important in keeping the Sooners to short yards.
Tennessee has struggled in hostile road games throughout the last few years and that’s exactly what will be waiting ahead on Saturday night. But unlike past years, Tennessee has a far deeper roster heading into Norman than other road cities. Tennessee’s depth and ability to rotate key positions should help mitigate the challenge of playing in such a hostile environment.
This game will be fought and won in the trenches and that’s why I’ve leaned towards Tennessee this week. Yes, there’s a lot of hoopla about Josh Heupel’s return to Norman and yada-yada-yada. I’m less interested in that storyline when the first whistle blows. I believe that Tennessee’s defensive front will travel well and give Nico Iamaleava and the Vols’ offense enough opportunities to find the win. I also believe that while Venables is a worthy chess opponent, Heupel has had more than enough time to prepare for this game and find a scheme that he likes.
I picked Oklahoma in August, but I’m flipping to Tennessee after the first three weeks.
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Oklahoma 24
Jack Foster
This is the game that was circled for almost everyone as the swing game in Tennessee’s season. If the Vols win, 10-2 is the floor. If the Vols lose, a CFP bid becomes an uphill battle.
Through the first three weeks, Tennessee couldn’t have looked better, and Oklahoma hasn’t looked great. I picked Tennessee before the season, and that obviously hasn’t changed. The question is just by how much. First here’s a couple keys to the game.
Tennessee’s defensive line/pass rush will feast on a poor Oklahoma offensive line and put Jackson Arnold through the ringer. While the Sooners’ aerial attack is one of their strengths, I don’t know how much time Arnold will have to throw and he certainly won’t be playing on schedule most of the time. HOWEVER, Tennessee must not let Arnold scramble for back-breaking first downs like it has against mobile quarterbacks in the past. And Arnold can beat teams with his legs, just like he did last week against Tulane.
Expect Nico Iamaleava to be imperfect in this game. It’s his first true road game in a tough environment at night. It’s not going to be easy and Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables will have his defense ready. Tennessee’s offense will have its ebbs and flows but will be far more efficient than Oklahoma’s offense.
This could be a pretty low-scoring game, and I’m worried I’m predicting too many points with my score. But Oklahoma will probably score a couple of times, and I still like Tennessee to put together a handful of strong drives resulting in points. Also, don’t be surprised if Tennessee gets a defensive touchdown.
Vols pick up a massive, relatively stress-free win in Norman and double cover the spread.
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Oklahoma 14
Ryan Schumpert
It’s been 18 years since Tennessee football has gone on the road and defeated a top 15 opponent. While I don’t know this for a fact, I’m pretty confident that the Vols haven’t been touchdown favorites in any of those games. Saturday is simple a tremendous opportunity for this Tennessee football team and program. It would be another win to help put them in the forefront of the sport and it would make it all but a lock that they will go 10-2 or better and make the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma boasts the best defense that Tennessee has seen to date this season and one of the best defenses they’ll see all season. The Vols have to be able to run the ball with some level of success and I think they will. But it won’t be anything like the first three games of the season. Oklahoma has the ability to make Nico Iamaleava beat them through the air. There’s no doubt that Iamaleava is extremely talented but he hasn’t had to do that in any of his first four starts. It remains a question entering the top 15 showdown.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee’s defense is facing an Oklahoma offense that’s been largely hapless to this point in the season. The Sooners are likely to get a starter back at receiver and on the offensive line in this game. We’ll see how much that ends up mattering but I’m skeptical that it makes a radical difference. The most lopsided matchup in this game is Tennessee’s defensive line against Oklahoma’s offensive line. While the depth has been crucial for Tennessee all season, it will be particularly important on what’s expected to be a hot September night in Norman.
There are some unknowns entering this game for Tennessee but I keep having a prevailing thought that’s similar to how I felt before the NC State game. Oklahoma is going to struggled moving the football against a defensive front that can overwhelm them. Most games under Josh Heupel, Tennessee has been able to roll out of bed and score at least in the 30-ballpark. Oklahoma has a great defense, but I think Tennessee will be able to get in that range Saturday night.
Prediction: Tennessee 31, Oklahoma 21
