Tennessee’s men’s basketball team is looking to close the deal in a historical season. The fourth-ranked Volunteers (22-6) are currently tied with 14th-ranked Alabama (20-8) for the Southeastern Conference lead at 12-3 with three games remaining.
That’s 120 minutes away from a potential share of the SEC regular-season title for the first time since 2018 and an outright non-division SEC crown for the first time since 1967. Will the Vols hold off the defending-champion Crimson Tide and third-place South Carolina (23-5, 11-4)? Below we examine the current SEC title futures odds and Tennessee’s prospects for finishing on top of the competitive conference.
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SEC Championship Odds: Tennessee still a slight favorite
The Vols remain the online sportsbook consensus SEC favorite (-123) despite a rugged closing schedule. Alabama is right behind with consensus odds of -111 — with South Carolina a distant third at +2075.
The Volunteers’ demanding itinerary starts with Saturday night’s visit to Alabama as the SEC co-leaders will square off in an 8 p.m. ET ESPN showdown.
Tennessee rolled to a 91-71 home win over the Crimson Tide on Jan. 20, but that was in the friendly confines of Food City Center.
Now, the Volunteers will be taking the floor in Tuscaloosa where the Tide are 13-1 on the season, including 7-0 in SEC play. Overall, Alabama has won 16 straight SEC home games dating back to the 2021-22 season.
And even if the Vols escape with a win Saturday, they’ll still have to visit 18th-ranked South Carolina four nights later and then host No. 16 Kentucky (20-8, 10-5) on March 9 to close out the regular season.
Alabama, meanwhile, closes out its regular season with a visit to No. 24 Florida (March 5) and a home date with 12th-place Arkansas (March 9).
South Carolina hosts Florida (20-8, 10-5) on Saturday and then Tennessee before closing the season at seventh-place Mississippi State (19-9, 8-7) on March 9.
So if Tennessee is going to claim its first share of the SEC regular-season crown, it will almost certainly be earned over the final week.
Vols relying on Dalton Knecht and defense
Tennessee was fifth nationally as of Thursday in both the NCAA NET rankings and guru Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings.
Credit veteran coach Rick Barnes’ acumen, a deep, defensive-minded roster and one of the transfer portal finds of the season in senior guard Dalton Knecht, a sharp-shooting transfer from Northern Colorado.
Knecht did lead the Big Sky Conference in scoring last season with an average of 20.2 points per game. But few envisioned that the 6-foot-6 guard would be doing the same late in the SEC season with an even-higher 20.8-point average.
Knecht has topped 30 points in six of 28 games this season, including 37 against current No. 9-ranked North Carolina on Nov. 29 and a career- and season-high-matching 39 in Wednesday’s 92-84 win over No. 11 Auburn.
He also is pacing the Vols with a 41.4% success rate from 3-point range while averaging 4.9 rebounds per contest.
Meanwhile, Tennessee again boasts one of the nation’s top defensive teams. The Vols are allowing only 67.2 points per game (second-best in the SEC), forcing a conference-leading 13.4 opponent turnovers and limiting foes to 38.3-percent shooting from the field (third-best nationally).
The Volunteers have finished as a top-five team nationally in Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings in each of the previous three seasons and are right up there again at No. 3 this year with an opponent-adjusted average of 91.8 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Tennessee certainly will need to be at its defensive best Saturday in Tuscaloosa as Alabama leads the nation in scoring (91.5 ppg) and tops Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency list (128.1 points per 100 possessions).
