As soon as the final play ended in Sunday’s NFC Championship game, the odds for NFL Super Bowl 58 were released by sportsbooks throughout the United States. The verdict was unanimous, too: The San Francisco 49ers were short favorites over the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Super Bowl 58 will be played on Feb. 11, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET. Let’s take a closer look at the point spread and the total, and the early line movement.
NFL Super Bowl Odds: Early Line Movement Favors Chiefs
When the point spread opened late Sunday night, the 49ers were listed as 2- or 2.5-point favorites at the best online sportsbooks.
Early bets poured in on the Chiefs, and within a few hours, the 49ers were down to 1-point favorites almost across the board. With two weeks for more money to be bet on North America’s biggest sporting event, you can expect some line movement in both directions.
As of Monday morning, the Over/Under is 47.5 points at most sportsbooks.
Although it’s not surprising to see these teams meet in this year’s Super Bowl, it wasn’t always obvious for either team at varying points in the season.
Despite winning the Super Bowl in 2023, the Chiefs started slowly this season — even losing the season opener at home to the Detroit Lions. The defense did the heavy lifting while the usually potent offense took some time to get going.
By the end of the regular season, however, the Chiefs found their groove and carried that over into the playoffs, where they have looked great.
San Francisco, on the other hand, looked phenomenal for much of the regular season on its way to earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed but encountered some major adversity in its two playoff games.
The 49ers trailed the Green Bay Packers by seven points when the fourth quarter began in the NFC Divisional Playoffs but rallied to win 24-21. Then they trailed the Lions by 17 points at halftime in the NFC Championship game and came back to win 34-31.
Super Bowl Betting Trends
The pre-game favorite is 35-21 straight-up in the first 57 Super Bowls, while Super Bowl 41 between the 49ers and the Cincinnati Bengals was a pick ‘em.
The favorite is 25-28-3 against the spread in Super Bowl history. The underdog has covered in each of the last two Super Bowls, and in the three before that, the favorite covered the spread.
The Chiefs are in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons. They are 2-1 ATS in the three most recent Super Bowl appearances, including winning outright as underdogs last season.
The Super Bowl winner is 47-7-3 ATS (87%) all-time.
In the history of the Super Bowl, the Over/Under has been a virtual toss-up. The Over is 28-27-1 with the tiebreaker coming last season when the Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35. The total was 51.5 points. That Over broke a streak of four consecutive Unders.
If this year’s total remains less than 49 points ahead of kickoff, it will be the lowest total in a Super Bowl since Super Bowl 50 when the total was 43.5 points for the Denver Broncos’ 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers.
