The final four teams in the AFC Playoffs have been confirmed and one thing is clear based on the AFC Championship Odds — one of these teams doesn’t belong.
Left for dead before the season began due to the fact they boasted a rookie head coach and a rookie QB, the Houston Texans have stormed into the NFL Divisional Playoffs and have their sights set on crashing the party being hosted by three strong contenders who have been there and done that.
The Baltimore Ravens have been the class of the AFC all season and, as the No. 1 seed, will play host to the Texans on Saturday, Jan. 20. Then, on Jan. 21, the No. 2 Buffalo Bills will play host to the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The two winners will face off for a berth in Super Bowl 58.
- Saturday, Jan. 20, 4:30 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
- Sunday, Jan. 21, 6:30 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
- Sunday, Jan. 28, 3 p.m. ET: AFC Championship Game
With the big prize so close, let’s take a look at the AFC Championship Odds and the outlook for all four teams to cash that ticket.
Baltimore Ravens AFC Championship Odds
- DraftKings Sportsbook: +115
- FanDuel Sportsbook: +115
- Caesars Sportsbook: +115
- BetMGM Sportsbook: +120
Beginning in Week 1, the Ravens have been viewed as a strong team within the AFC. As the season went on, their prospects of reaching the Super Bowl looked better and better. Now, here they sit two home wins away from reaching the big game.
MVP frontrunner and QB Lamar Jackson has been sensational this season, and he has the Baltimore offense clicking like never before. Even when star TE Mark Andrews went down, the Ravens kept chugging along.
On Christmas night, the Ravens impressively won at San Francisco 33-19, and the following week, they put up 56 points in a rout of the Miami Dolphins. Both of those teams qualified for the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills AFC Championship Odds
- FanDuel: +220
- BetMGM: +225
- Caesars: +230
- DraftKings: +235
Counting Monday’s playoff win, the Bills have won six in a row, and the offense is clicking at a high rate. That’s great news because they’ll need every bit of that execution when they try to get over quite the hump next weekend in the Divisional Playoff.
Buffalo has been eliminated by the Chiefs in two of the last three postseasons. The good news this time around is that the Bills get to face Kansas City on their home turf. Of course, Buffalo already beat the Chiefs in Kansas City this season so perhaps it doesn’t matter where they play anymore.
Bills QB Josh Allen is on a roll, and Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has scuffled most of the season with a lack of playmakers. Should Buffalo get past Kansas City, you have to like its chances of winning in the next round because if the Bills can beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, they may just start to feel invincible.
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Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Odds
- BetMGM: +300
- Caesars: +310
- DraftKings: +320
- FanDuel: +330
It hasn’t been an easy season for the Chiefs, but here they are anyway — one win from a sixth consecutive berth in the AFC Championship game. Granted, they don’t get to play at Arrowhead Stadium throughout this postseason, so it will be more difficult to repeat as AFC champs.
The problem with betting on Kansas City to win the AFC is that you’re paying a premium price for a marquee name with the game’s best quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is the most accomplished QB in the league, but based on how this season has gone, do you really see the Chiefs winning at Buffalo and then at Baltimore?
It feels like there is a ceiling on this year’s version of the Chiefs and that there is no value in their AFC Championship Odds.
Houston Texans AFC Championship Odds
- DraftKings: +1100
- BetMGM: +1300
- Caesars: +1300
- FanDuel: +1300
If you had asked Texans fans late in the regular season what they hoped for the rest of the season and the playoffs, they would have told you they’re just happy to have a quarterback that gives them a chance in the future. They didn’t need a playoff appearance or even a playoff victory to be satisfied.
And now look where the team is.
Rookie QB CJ Stroud burst onto the scene, and he led the way as the team took several steps forward. That includes Saturday’s dominant playoff win over the Browns which set the stage for the Divisional Round matchup against the Ravens.
These teams met all the way back in Week 1, and Baltimore won 25-9 on its home field. Both teams are drastically different by now so you can probably throw that game out the window when handicapping this rematch.
The Ravens are 10-point favorites on Saturday, and if the Texans are fortunate enough to score the outright upset, they’d have to beat either Buffalo or Kansas City on the road to win the AFC championship. The odds are fair, but with how great Stroud has been, it might be fun to bet some pizza money on the Texans to reach the Super Bowl.
