With week nine coming to a head, the ACC has a packed schedule and we will be focusing on a ranked matchup between Louisville and Duke for Saturday Oct. 28 at 3:30 p.m. ET in Kentucky. With both teams in the AP Top 25, this game has a lot at stake in terms of playoff contention and bowl season. The top Kentucky sportsbooks have welcome bonuses that keep you at the epicenter of the betting movement. Shop around for what piques your interest best, and take advantage of one or multiple offers before they’re gone!
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Louisville vs Duke Preview and Odds
As we delve into the matchup, the spread is set at -4 points in favor of the Cardinals on most online betting platforms. The over / under line is set at 46.5 points for these two SEC teams. With the numbers set, let’s take a look at these two top 20 ranked teams and how they match up and keys to coming out on top this Saturday.
Louisville Cardinals: Rested and Hoping to Bounce Back
The Louisville Cardinals are coming off a much needed bye week, especially so late in the season. It’s been two weeks since their last game played against Pitt, and the Cardinals suffered a surprising loss. Quarterback Jack Plummer had a whopping 52 attempts through the air and completed 29 of those passes. Plummer also had 350 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. That many yards through the air is impressive, but Plummer failing to turn that into any points in the second half of the game is arguably the biggest disappointment of the matchup.
Plummer also had -33 rushing yards on six carries. While it isn’t hard to pick apart what went wrong in this loss, there are some positive takeaways. The numbers aside from the final score speak for themselves. Louisville proved that it has a run game that it can lean on. Running backs Maurice Turner and Isaac Guerendo had a combined 25 carries and 119 yards of rushing together. Turner ran for 81 of those yards on 12 carries. With an established run game from this tandem, the field opens up for so many more options especially in the fourth quarter. Wide Receiver Jamari Thrash had 120 yards receiving on nine receptions, and wideout Jimmy Calloway had 90 receiving yards on five receptions.
There is talent on this roster — we know that just on the ranking alone. The defense of the Cardinals has to step up in a big way. Pitt had receivers Jerrod Means produce 71 yards on four receptions and saw Kenny Johnson breakaway for 49 yards on two receptions. With a defense allowing explosive plays, a game can get away from a team very quickly. A much needed reset from the bye week, and playing at home should set the stage for Louisville to come out swinging and shining bright.
Duke Blue Devils: Looking for first win against a ranked opponent
Duke has a major chip on its shoulder going into Kentucky. Suffering a loss to Florida State just last week contributes to this and with the only two losses coming from ranked teams this season on their resume, the chirping from Louisville is loud and clear. Many people think that Duke and quarterback Riley Leonard are pretenders and not contenders. Leonard has caught the attention of many in college football, and as the weeks have gone on, but other quarterbacks have left him in the rearview.
Leonard’s last game did not help his case with a baffling 69 passing yards, an abysmal seven completions on 16 attempts and no touchdowns with one interception. While Florida State has established itself as a top five team in the nation, someone as talented as Leonard cannot under any circumstances be held to double digit passing yards.
It’s a fair speculation for Leonard to out play Louisville’s Jack Plummer, but if Duke’s defense allows over 400 yards of total offense like it did against Florida State, this game will be over quickly. Leonard’s completion percentage has gone down every single week this season and that is a red flag. While we can safely assume Leonard won’t have single digit completions and double digit passing yards, he will have to keep his completions to attempts ratio close. Making the passes count over four quarters, keeping the mistakes minimal and finding an explosive play here and there that he’s proven he is capable of making will keep this game in the forefront until the end.
Louisville vs. Duke Prediction
With the stats showing how Leonard has regressed in terms of completion percentage, the only two losses coming against ranked opponents, and the thrashing the Seminoles gave them does not bode well for Duke. Louisville is fresh off a bye week and has proven the rushing offense is there. Those two things and the passing ability Plummer has recently shown has us siding with the Cardinals against Duke.
Louisville won’t have enough to cover the 4-point spread with Leonard back to top form, but we do believe this is a shootout style win. Taking the Over 46.5 points looks promising given the two talented quarterbacks in this match up.
