RTI Game Predictions: Tennessee at Alabama

More From RTI: Alabama Beat Writer Nick Kelly Previews Alabama-Tennessee

Jack Foster

It’s hard to believe the Third Saturday in October is already here. Feels like just yesterday we were in Nashville kicking off the season.

Seven weeks into the season, Tennessee and Alabama have each underwhelmed in some areas but been better than expected in others. A majority of Tide and Vol fans likely projected their teams to be undefeated at this point, setting the stage for a Top 10 tilt, but an Alabama home loss to Texas and a Tennessee blowout road loss to Florida leaves them each with one loss.

Thus, this is a playoff game for both teams. Whoever loses has no chance of making the College Football Playoff. And as for Tennessee, a loss would make it significantly more difficult for them to reach the SEC Championship game in Atlanta.

Both teams have similar strengths. Their pass rushes are outstanding, and both teams have, at least recently, won games in a low-scoring manner this season.

So who wins in the trenches? Stats point to Tennessee. The Vols’ defensive line has been better on paper, and their offensive line has been much better. Alabama ranks 126/130 in sacks allowed this season. Not ideal with James Pearce Jr. and Tyler Baron coming to town.

Another question is can Tennessee stop the big plays? That seems to be the only thing Alabama’s offense has done really well recently, as quarterback Jalen Milroe ranks second in the SEC and fourth in the FBS in yards per pass attempt.

But ultimately, this game comes down to two things that go hand-in-hand. Can Tennessee play well for 60 minutes on the road? And can Joe Milton III make enough good-to-great plays to lead his team to victory?

The Vols haven’t played well on the road since last year against LSU, with the most previous three performances being very ugly against Georgia, South Carolina and Florida. They need to change that narrative this weekend in Bryant-Denny.

And as for Milton, Tennessee simply has to have its quarterback make a few plays that will positively alter the outcome of the game. Does Milton have it in him? Based off last week’s poor performance against Texas A&M and his largely disappointing season up to this point, I don’t have enough confidence in the sixth-year senior to give Tennessee the edge.

Tide wins close.

Prediction: Alabama 24, Tennessee 20

Ric Butler

Let’s just cut right to the chase and get to the good stuff. I’m going to name some quarterbacks and I want you to think of the common thread among them: Joe Burrow, Hendon Hooker, Trevor Lawrence, Quinn Ewers, Jayden Daniels. Those are five of some of the most recent quarterbacks to beat a Nick Saban-led team. It takes an elite quarterback performance to topple the Tide, which puts pressure on the shoulders of Joe Milton III.

I’m not saying that Milton has to go out and pass for 300 yards and three touchdowns, though that probably would go a long way in finding a win for Tennessee. We know that Tennessee’s offense is based on the ground game right now and that’s the way it should be with Wright, Small, and Sampson playing as well as they are. But, at the same time, Milton is going to have to step up and make plays in the intermediate range of the field and in the red zone.

Let’s talk about where Tennessee does have the advantage, though, and that’s with the pass rush. Don’t get me wrong, Alabama has a stout pass rush as well… but they won’t be on the field at the same time. It’ll be Alabama’s offensive line which has struggled throughout the year. Alabama’s line has given up some of the most sacks and quarterback pressures in all of college football this year. Tennessee has another opportunity to pin its ears back and make life difficult for Jalen Milroe. But at the same time, Milroe can use his feet in a number of different ways. Keeping coverage in the back end of the field will be crucial for Tennessee’s defense when the play starts to break down into chaos as Milroe scrambles around the field.

I know the other guys are going to have great thoughts as well so I’m going to skip to my final point – or, hesitation, in this case. I believe that Tennessee’s road game against Florida was a wheels-fell-off type of game that won’t be repeated this season. But, at the same time, that memory does weigh heavy. I believe that Tennessee can be effective on the road but I think that Tennessee also needs to get out to a hot start in order to neutralize some of the crowd during the game. It’s not that I need to see it to believe it, but it’s something that I need to see in order to fully find the confidence once again.

Prediction: Alabama 27, Tennessee 21

Ryan Schumpert

The Third Saturday in October has some real juice again after Tennessee end a 15-game losing streak in the series with a 52-49 thrilling victory at Neyland Stadium. We aren’t going to get a game anything like that this Saturday in Tuscaloosa. In fact, the game’s over/under is set at 48. Less points than either team scored in last year’s game.

Neither team’s offense has lived up to its preseason expectations. Tennessee expected to take a step back offensively but to mix a strong run game with an effective down field passing attack. The running game has lived up to its end of the bargain but the Vols’ passing offense has been dreadful to date. Alabama expected to turn back the clock and beat opponents with a powerful rushing attack. The Crimson Tide’s rushing game has disappointed and they’ve been depended on their vertical passing game to score against top competition.

Tennessee proved they can run on anyone last week against Texas A&M when they totaled 232 rushing yards. But can the Vols find enough passing to supplement the rushing success against Alabama? The Crimson Tide are good at corner and at rushing the passer. That doesn’t inspire confidence in Joe Milton and the Vols’ receivers. If Tennessee wants to stay competitive, it must avoid the pre snap penalties that plagued them in Gainesville. This offense isn’t good enough to overcome first-and-15 with any frequency.

I’m more fascinated by Alabama’s offense versus Tennessee’s defense. The Vols’ defense has been stout the last two games. Can it continue their success on the road against the most explosive offense they’ve faced all season? It’s capable of it but this is also a bigger challenge than what it’s seen so far this season. Tennessee’s defensive line has to be dominant for Tennessee to earn the upset.

Tennessee’s road struggles and lack of passing offense are too much for me to predict the upset. Alabama wins a low scoring affair.

Prediction: Alabama 24, Tennessee 14

Matt Reed

There is reason to like the matchup of Tennessee’s defense against this Alabama offense. Assuming the Tennessee defense can travel, I already touched on how they’ve been successful at preventing long plays. Those have been a staple of this Alabama offense under Jalen Milroe. More importantly, James Pearce and Tyler Baron are playing as well as any pass rush duo in college football this season.

Where Tennessee’s pass rush has been elite through six games, Alabama has been porous in pass blocking. The Tide are 130th in the nation with 31 sacks surrendered through seven games. To put that into perspective, Bryce Young was only sacked 22 times through 13 games last season. Five-star true freshman Kadyn Proctor is reminding folks why it is so hard to play left tackle in the SEC as a freshman. Proctor has struggled mightily in Alabama’s last several games. How do Nick Saban and Tommy Rees adjust to that when facing Tennessee’s pass rush? It is hard to see a path to victory for Tennessee that does not involve its pass rush making some big plays.

Saban is very good in “revenge” games and certainly will be using last year’s score to motivate his defense. Saban has only lost six games at home since his first season at Alabama. Those six visiting quarterbacks were Cam Newton, Zach Mettenberg, Johnny Manziel, Chad Kelly, Joe Burrow, and Quinn Ewers. That is where I struggle to see Tennessee win on Saturday. It is not that Joe Milton is not capable of playing at that level, but he has not played anywhere near that level this season. I expect Tennessee’s vaunted run game to have some success on Saturday, but at what point does Saban put eight defenders in the box to force the Vols to throw? This is not a bulletproof Alabama team. If this game were inside Neyland Stadium again I would be picking Tennessee. Unfortunately, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Tennessee play well on the road, and it’s been a while since we’ve seen Joe Milton play well period. It is hard to pick the Vols when considering those two facts.

Prediction: Alabama 31, Tennessee 17