In his second year as head coach of Tennessee, Josh Heupel led the Vols to their first 11-win season since 2001. The team capped off the exciting season with a 31-14 win over Clemson in the Orange Bowl, followed by sending five players to the NFL, including top-10 pick Darnell Wright.
With Heupel’s third season set to start soon and all the excitement that is generating for the school, we’ve gathered the best Tennessee Volunteers football odds and identified three Tennessee best bets to consider for the upcoming season, including their Week 1 matchup vs. Virginia.
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Tennessee odds preview, storylines to follow
The Vols are ranked 12th in the AP Preseason Top 25. Considering the Vols weren’t ranked at all in the preseason in 2022, this is a significant jump. It’s safe to say Tennessee has the attention of the nation thanks to its performance in 2022 that includes wins over Clemson, Alabama, and Florida. That was in large part due to the team averaging the most yards per game in 2022 with 525.5 per game and points per game at 44.5.
However, various key players who helped make the Vols what they were departed for the next level. In addition to Wright, Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, and Byron Young all got the chance to continue their careers on the biggest stage in the sport. Hooker accounted for 74% of the Vols’ passing yards, while Hyatt and Tillman hauled in 40% of Tennessee’s passing yards and 47 percent of the Vols’ receiving touchdowns. As great as Heupel has been getting the most from the offense, that’s a significant amount of production to replace.
What they do have going for them is that new starting QB Joe Milton III has already seen meaningful playing time — none more notable than his start against Clemson. In Hooker’s absence in the Orange Bowl, Milton III went 19-for-28 for 251 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Tigers were a top 30 defense in 2022, and that’s just on paper. They were likely better than that when you account for the quality of opponents.
Despite the exodus of critical talent, the Vols are fortunate in that their projected depth chart doesn’t have a single freshman on either side of the ball. The experience of their roster should help avoid letdown performances, which are season killers on the collegiate level.
Tennessee Volunteers best bets
Below are the three best Tennessee Vols bets to place before the kickoff of the 2023 season.
Over 9.5 Wins (+146 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
At first glance of their schedule, there is only one game that feels safe to consider as a certain loss — Sept. 30 vs. Georgia. Outside of that one, they’ll have to keep an eye out for Alabama, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Florida. The Gamecocks made it look easy against the Vols in 2022, winning the game 63-38. Florida nearly pulled out the upset in Knoxville thanks to a monster performance from Anthony Richardson, who was selected in the first round in the NFL Draft.
Neither Florida nor Texas A&M cracked the top 15 in the AP Top 25 to start the season, but they are still formidable SEC foes — especially the Aggies, who are a wild card this season.
Their now sophomore QB Connor Weigman didn’t start last season until after Week 7 due to injury. In his five starts in 2022, he amassed 896 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns, and did not throw an interception. He got progressively better as time went on, concluding the season with a 12-for-18, two-touchdown performance in a win over No. 5 LSU. Now that he has a full offseason with starter reps under his belt, he could be in for a big season — one that could help produce an upset in Knoxville if the Vols aren’t careful.
Florida had a Jekyll and Hyde season last year, which makes them a dangerous out. QB Graham Mertz is expected to get the start for the Gators in 2023, and although he wasn’t lights out in Wisconsin before transferring to Florida, it’s yet to be seen what a change of scenery does for him.
However, the Vols would be the favorites in both of those matchups. We don’t expect them to drop both, so a 10-win season is highly possible in Knoxville.
Win the SEC East (+490 on FanDuel)
This wager isn’t likely to come to fruition, but given the value, it’s worth considering. The Bulldogs recently lost QB Stetson Bennett to the NFL Draft. Although the Bulldogs’ recent success has been a complete team effort — defense coaching, offense, etc. — Bennett made history as the starting QB by winning back-to-back championships, making him one of three college QBs to ever do so.
He had a lot of help to accomplish the milestone, but it is still on his resume, and isn’t accomplished often. Although Carson Beck has been around for years learning from Bennett, there is no guarantee he’ll replicate his success. There is a decent chance he isn’t ready for the role. If he struggles early on and causes Georgia to drop a game or two, that could make the matchup between Georgia and Tennessee the game for the division.
Georgia is the better team on paper, but in one game with so much on the line, the Vols could find themselves unseating Georgia this year. Georgia has had plenty of good QBs come through their system over the years recently, but none accomplished what Bennett did. Beck could be next in line to come just short of the ultimate goal due to a few letdown games that cost them mightily. With odds like +490, the risk is worth the potential reward.
Week 1: Tennessee vs. Virginia: Over 58.5 (-110 or better)
The Vols led the nation in points per game and yards per game in 2022. A big chunk of the talent responsible for the production has departed, but Heupel has shown that his offense works regardless of who is under center. The likelihood the explosiveness of Tennessee’s offense bottoms out is slim, especially against a Virginia defense that was nothing to write home about in 2022.
The real pressure to to hit this Over is going to be on Virginia to put up enough points. The Cavaliers’ offense was one of the worst in the nation with QB Brennan Armstrong last year. He finished 2022 with 2,210 passing yards, seven touchdowns and 12 interceptions. They can’t be any worse this year, especially with Tony Musket now expected to take over QB duties.
Although the newcomer played in a lesser division last year, he offers more hope than what they got with Armstrong. Any improvement in QB production should go a long way for Cavaliers’ head coach Tony Elliott, who is no stranger to good offenses thanks to his time at Clemson. He is entering his second year as the head coach at Virginia, so the lessons learned should be enough to show improvement on that side of the ball starting Week 1.
