The 2024-25 Tennessee basketball season came to an end on Sunday afternoon when Houston knocked off the Vols’ 69-50 in the Elite Eight.
The Vols entered the season ranked right outside the top 10 as they replaced four starters and a number of key players including SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht. But Tennessee was really good once again, winning 30 games for the third time in program history and making the Elite Eight for the third time in program history.
Ahead of the season, I published three stories looking at things I thought I knew about the team, questions for the season and a few bold predictions. How did I do? Reflection on the preseason thoughts here.
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Five Things I Thought I Knew
Tennessee Will Be Very Dependent On Zakai Zeigler
Tennessee was definitely dependent on Zakai Zeigler. Jordan Gainey’s development maybe made them less than “very dependent” on Zeigler.
But for the most part, Tennessee still went as Zeigler went. And that wasn’t a bad thing. Tennessee built a roster around Zeigler. He repaid them with a fantastic season.
Tennessee Will Finish Top Five In Defensive Efficiency Again
This one was easy. Tennessee was replacing some key guys but Zakai Zeigler, Jahmai Mashack and Felix Okpara were too good defensively for Tennessee to drop much in defensive efficiency.
The Vols finished the season ranked No. 3 nationally in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency.
Felix Okpara Will Be Tennessee’s Best Interior Defender Of Rick Barnes’ Tenure
Okpara didn’t put up as gaudy block numbers in his first season at Tennessee (64) as he did the year before at Ohio State (83). But Okpara was still a fantastic defender and proved to be an upgrade over Jonas Aidoo with his physicality inside.
This is probably up for debate but I’d stand by the preseason prediction.
Cam Carr Is The Ultimate X-Factor
What can you do but laugh about this one? Carr played four games before suffering a thumb injury and then transferring in late December. Maybe he would have been an x-factor if he stayed but Tennessee still had a lot of success without him.
Jordan Gainey largely ended up filling this role.
Cade Phillips Will Be In The Rotation Come SEC Play
I didn’t know what Cade Phillips role would be but I was confident he would earn one. That he did. JP Estrella’s foot injury forced Phillips in as the backup center.
The sophomore forward did a good job in his sophomore season, playing 14.9 minutes per game while having success rebounding and defending the rim.
Five Questions I Had
Will Tennessee Have A Consistent Two-Point Offense?
This remained a question for Tennessee through most of the season. For large chunks of the year, Tennessee struggled to score when they didn’t shoot well from three-point range.
But in the last six weeks of the season, Tennessee’s offense was good even without shots falling. Zakai Zeigler and Jordan Gainey were good getting to the basket (and foul line) while Gainey and Chaz Lanier shot well in the midrange. The question showed up against an elite Houston defense to end the season, but figuring this out was a big reason why Tennessee made the Elite Eight.
Who Emerges As A Second Offensive Option?
I knew Zakai Zeigler was the guy running the show. Who would emerge beside him? Chaz Lanier. He wasn’t Dalton Knecht but he was a highly effective player, averaging 18 points per game. He broke Tennessee’s single-season program record for made three-pointers.
Does Tennessee Have A Second Adequate Rim Protector?
Cade Phillips! He blocked 0.9 shots per game and posted a strong 7.3 block rate. His ability to defend the rim as a 6-foot-9 forward was impressive.
Will Late Shot Clock Offense Struggle?
It really didn’t. Zeigler was better in late shot clock ball screens than he was two seasons ago and Gainey turned out to be another solid option there.
How Quickly Can Tennessee’s Defense Reach Its Potential?
It didn’t take too long. Zeigler and Mashack set the tone from the jump and Tennessee’s defense was top five from the beginning of the season. Okpara didn’t hit his stride until January and that’s when Tennessee’s defense was at its best.
Three Bold Predictions
Zakai Zeigler Breaks Tennessee Single-Season Assist Record
Zeigler’s 275 assists didn’t just break Tennessee’s single-season assist record but the SEC’s single-season assist record. He finished as the Vols’ career assist record holder.
I also predicted that he’d be an All-American. Zeigler was a Third Team All-American selection by the Associated Press.
Tennessee Breaks Program Record For Three-Pointers Taken and Made
Neither proved to be true. Tennessee made 282 three-pointers which was 45 fewer than the program record in 2006-07. The Vols took 829 three-pointers which was 86 fewer than the program record in 2023-24.
Jordan Gainey Averages 12-Plus Points Per Game
My favorite bold prediction before the season came up just short. After averaging just 6.8 points in his first season at Tennessee, Jordan Gainey averaged 11.6 points in his senior season. He was even better down the stretch, averaging 14.6 points in 10 games in March.
I expected Gainey to breakout with a much better three-point shooting season. But Gainey’s success came more from driving to the basket and hitting shots in the midrange.
