The 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament has been been dominated by top seeds and favorites.
The result is a Final Four featuring all four No. 1 regional seeds for the first time since 2008 and for only the second time overall since full bracket seeding began in 1979.
Onn the March Madness betting boards, it’s been decidedly chalky as spread favorites of 8-plus points have won all 22 games outright, matching the record from the 2007 NCAA tourney.
Will that continue in the national semifinals and championship game, set for Saturday and Monday in San Antonio? We break down the odds and trends below.
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Final Four, national championship odds: Gators, Blue Devils favored Saturday
On the subject of dominance, the Southeastern Conference sent a record 14 teams to the Big Dance this season.
And so it’s no surprise to see Saturday’s Final Four tipping off with an all-SEC matchup between the West Region’s top-seeded Florida (34-4) and the South’s top-seeded Auburn (32-5).
The Tigers won the SEC regular season championship while the Gators captured the SEC tournament title. Florida won the Feb. 8 matchup in Alabama, prevailing 90-81.
In Saturday night’s second semifinal, it’s Wooden Award-favorite Cooper Flagg and ACC-champion Duke (35-3) taking on Big 12-champion Houston (34-4).
Here’s the Saturday Final Four schedule and odds for the matchups in San Antonio’s Alamodome:
- South 1-seed Auburn vs. West 1-seed Florida, 6:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
- East 1 seed Duke vs. Midwest 1-seed Houston, 8:49 p.m. (CBS)
Florida, which has won 10 straight and 16 of its last 17 games outright, owns Division I’s fifth-best against-the-spread record at 27-11 (.711).
However, the Gators have had to scrap and claw to secure the program’s first Final Four berth in 11 years. And they are the only member of the remaining quartet with a below-.500 ATS record (1-3) so far in the NCAA tourney.
Auburn, meanwhile, is 20-16-1 ATS on the season, but is 3-1 in the NCAA tourney and 2-1 as an underdog on the season. The health of All-America forward Johni Broome, who suffered an elbow injury in the South Regional final, will be key to the Tigers’ continued success.
On the other side of the bracket, Duke owns the nation’s 12th-best ATS record at 25-13 (.658), including a 24-13 mark as a favorite and a 3-1 showing in the Big Dance.
It’ll face Houston, which is 20-17-1 ATS on the season, including 1-0 as an underdog and 2-1-1 in winning the Midwest title.
NCAA Tournament championship odds: Duke is a heavy favorite
The national championship game is set for 8:50 p.m. ET, Monday, April 7 on CBS.
Entering the Final Four, Duke has won 15 straight and 31 of its last 32 games overall., And, their four Big Dance victories so far, the Blue Devils have posted a tourney-best 23.5-point average margin of victory.
Coach Jon Scheyer’s crew will now try to follow through with the sixth national championship in the program’s history.
As detailed below, Duke is a strong national title favorite, and that’s a good place to be considering how this year’s bracket has played out so far.
During Rounds 1 and 2, per the BetIQ database, favorites went 36-12 straight-up and 26-21-1 ATS. And since the Sweet 16 tipped off last Thursday, favorites have gone 12-0 SU (7-5 ATS), marking the first time that has happened since Big Dance odds have been tracked.
College basketball bettors have taken notice.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Duke has attracted 30 percent of its national championship futures handle — 5 percent more than the other three Final Four participants (Florida 12%, Auburn 7% and Houston 6%) combined.
Duke is even more popular at BetMGM Sportsbook, with the Devils accounting for a full 40.5 percent of the market’s total handle.
“The tournament has gone in the bettors’ favor with favorites consistently winning,” BetMGM taking manager Christian Cipollini said in a Monday news release. “The sportsbook is cheering against a Duke-Florida final.”
