Tennessee basketball is back in the Sweet 16 for the third straight season as they prepare to face rival Kentucky in Indianapolis on Friday night.
It’s the third meeting between the two teams this season and the first ever matchup between the border rivals in the NCAA Tournament. Despite losing both of the regular season meetings, Tennessee is 4.5-point favorites over Kentucky.
The stakes have never been higher in this rivalry. Here’s the RTI staff’s predictions for the game.
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Ric Butler
Tennessee-Kentucky is a big deal. The second weekend of the NCAA Tournament is a big deal. Combine those two things together, and you get the most high-stakes game in this storied rivalry on Friday night in Indianapolis. Let’s break it down.
I feel like I can go a number of different directions on this one, especially considering the overhanging aura of the unpredictable NCAA Tournament. Tennessee has loads of talent and a hunger to avenge losses from earlier in the season. Kentucky, on the other hand, has swagger and confidence from its two wins mixed with an underdog mentality. That’s a recipe for a great game – and, in some cases, chaos.
I’m going to pick Tennessee in a narrow victory on Friday because I have been continually impressed with the Vols’ play since the SEC Tournament. Tennessee has also been battle-tested in that stretch, particularly with Auburn and Florida in Nashville. For Tennessee to win, though, it’ll be on the shoulders of the guards. The Vols need Lanier and Gainey to be scorers, Mashack to be a stopper, and Zeigler to be the tone-setter if they want to win on Friday. Fortunately for Tennessee, that’s been the center of its recent postseason run.
Kentucky isn’t a great matchup for Tennessee, which is why it wasn’t easy to pick the Vols by any stretch. Mark Pope has his team firing on all cylinders right now, and clearly the Wildcats have had the winning formula in the first two game – especially from behind the arc. The Vols have to slow down the ‘Cats three-point shooting, but Kentucky will find ways to test Tennessee, too. One way or another, it’s going to be a highly competitive and high-level game on the court in Lucas Oil.
I’m picking Tennessee in a narrow victory.
Prediction: Tennessee 73, Kentucky 70
Ryan Schumpert
I’ve gone back-and-forth on this game all week. Let’s start with that old adage that it’s hard to beat a team three times. There’s some truth in that but I don’t think it’s as hard as some think. If a team has beaten an opponent twice in one season already, there’s probably a reason.
In this case, Kentucky is a bad matchup for Tennessee. The Wildcats five out offense gave Tennessee fits in each of the first two meetings with the Vols’ particularly struggling to defend Kentucky in dribble handoffs. Kentucky was able to get the ball in the paint, collapsing Tennessee’s defense and then spraying the ball to open shooters on the perimeter.
That’s my concern for Tennessee. In a tournament that’s all about matchups, Kentucky is a bad matchup for the Vols.
But on the other side, there’s a reason that Tennessee is still favorites against a team they’ve beaten twice this season and is playing well as of late. The Vols have been the better team all season and they’re due for some shooting variance to break their way in this meeting.
Connected to that is the way Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey struggled in the two regular season meetings. Those two have been playing much better over the last six weeks and will likely give Tennessee more offense than they did in the two regular season meetings.
The big matchup I’m watching for is Zakai Zeigler versus Lamont Butler. Butler is an elite defensive point guard. If Zeigler can break Butler down and get to the basket with consistency, I’m confident in how Zeigler is going to perform in the rematch.
I don’t have too much conviction in my pick. I could really see this going either way. But I’ll ride with Tennessee to get a rivalry win on the biggest stage.
Prediction: Tennessee 75, Kentucky 73
