INDIANAPOLIS — Tennessee basketball is a day away from taking on rival Kentucky in the Sweet 16 in what’s one of the biggest games in program history.
The Vols are trifling with their top rival for the third time this season as they look to advance to the Elite Eight for the second straight season and the third time in program history.
Kentucky won the two meetings in the regular season, handing Tennessee two of its seven losses on the season. So what are the keys to Tennessee avoiding a season-ending loss at the hands of its biggest rival? Taking a look at three things I’m watching for here.
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Can Tennessee Slow Down Kentucky’s Five-Out Offense?
Two of Tennessee’s worst defensive performances of the year came in its two regular season losses against Kentucky. It’s easy to simply point to Kentucky’s red-hot three-point shooting (12-of-24) in both of the games. That’s a real element. But it’s not just that simple.
The Wildcats’ five-out offensive attack that relies on a lot of ball movement and dribble-handoffs gave Tennessee issues in both games. Kentucky hit some tough shots in the two games but the bulk of its makes were on open shots.
And, yes, Kentucky shot really well from three-point range in both games but they had plenty of success at the basket too. Tennessee’s top focus entering this game should be on the defensive end of the court. They need to be more cohesive and more in sync on that end of the court.
The odds indicate that Kentucky won’t shoot as well from three-point range in this game than the first two meetings, but the Vols have to do a better job of defending the rim and forcing Kentucky into guarded jumpers.
How Effective Will Each Team’s Sharpshooter Be?
Kentucky’s Koby Brea and Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier isn’t much of a true matchup. But on the offensive end of the court, the Vols and Wildcats ask the pair to do a lot of the same things. Lanier has made 120 three-pointers this season at a 41% clip. Brea has made 92 three-pointers at a 44% clip.
Both are elite perimeter shooters who can give their team a major boost though Tennessee definitely asks for more scoring from Lanier (18.1 PPG) than Kentucky does Brea (11.8 PPG).
In the first two meetings, Brea played well while Lanier struggled. In Knoxville, Lanier shot three-for-10 from deep while Brea made all three of his three-point attempts. Lanier shot zero-for-seven from deep in the second meeting while Brea shot four-of-nine with a pair of significant bombs in the game’s final minutes.
Both players success is a huge indicator of team success too. Tennessee is 21-0 when Chaz Lanier scores 18-plus points. Kentucky is 14-2 when Brea makes three or more triples.
Zakai Zeigler vs. Lamont Butler
While Brea and Lanier are two players with similar strengths, Zakai Zeigler and Lamont Butler is a true matchup. They’re the head of the snake for both teams defensively and true point guards on the offensive end of the court.
They’re also two players with no shortage of NCAA Tournament experience. Zeigler is playing in his ninth NCAA Tournament game on Friday night. Butler is playing in his 14th after making the Big Dance in all four seasons he spent at San Diego State.
Butler missed the game in Knoxville with an injury and played just 22 games in the second meeting before suffering an injury. But in those 22 minutes, Butler was brilliant. The veteran point guard is by far Kentucky’s best perimeter defender. He recorded three steals in that game while dishing out four assists without turning the ball over.
This matchup will dictate the terms of the game. Zeigler needs to disrupt Butler and Kentucky’s offensive rhythm. Kentucky feasted on Illinois turnovers in the Round of 32. Zeigler has to take care of the ball and create good looks for himself and others.
