When Tennessee basketball collides with Kentucky at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Friday night it’ll be the first time ever that the Vols and Wildcats meet in the NCAA Tournament.
The border rivals have met in countless regular season and SEC Tournament matchups but this will be the first in the Big Dance. Kentucky has a commanding lead in the overall series and won both of the regular season meetings, just the second time during Rick Barnes’ tenure that Kentucky swept the regular season series.
Kentucky was the only team to beat Tennessee at Thompson-Boling Arena this season. The Vols didn’t lose a single game this season where they were as big of favorites as they were in that meeting. And even in Rupp Arena, the Vols were favorites.
So what went wrong and what went right for Tennessee in the matchups? Here’s a look at some things you don’t remember and some that you probably do.
Extreme Shooting Variance
Tennessee basketball shot a season-high 45 three-pointers in its home loss against Kentucky, making just 11 attempts for an ugly 24.4% clip from three-point range. The Wildcats, on the other hand, calmly made 12-of-24 three-pointers on their way to earning the victory.
A one-game shooting variance isn’t anything crazy. Surely, it wouldn’t repeat itself two weeks later in Rupp Arena? Not so fast, my friend.
Tennessee toned down its three-point attempts, taking just 18 in Lexington. They only made three of them for a 17% hit rate. Kentucky, again, hit 12-of-24 three-pointers including some true daggers from Kobe Brea late.
Kentucky is a really good three-point shooting team. They rank top 25 nationally with a 37.4% hit rate from deep. Tennessee is an averaging three-point shooting team, making 34.5% of its attempts from deep.
The isn’t exactly a fair exercise due to shot quality. But for the sake of driving the point home, what would the scores have been in the two games if the two teams shot their average from three-point range? Tennessee would have won 85-69 in Knoxville and 73-67 in Lexington.
Again, easier said than done, but it’s hard to tell the story of the first two games without detailing how hot Kentucky was from deep and how cold Tennessee was.
Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey Were Quiet While Igor Milicic Scored
In recent weeks, Tennessee basketball’s backcourt have done most its scoring with Zakai Zeigler, Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey driving the bus. That wasn’t the case in the first two meetings.
Lanier went for 15 points (3-of-10 3PT) and Gainey went for six points (2-for-9 FG) in the first meeting. Two weeks later in Rupp, Lanier totaled 10 points (0-for-7 3PT) while Gainey scored eight points (4-for-12 FG). In those two games, Tennessee got an average of 19.5 points from the duo.
Over the last 10 games, the duo are averaging 32.7 combined points per game for Tennessee. That’s the good news for the Vols. They should get more from Gainey and Lanier in this matchup.
However, Igor Milcic went for 19 and 16 points respectively in those two games. He’s scored in double figures just three times since. Tennessee likely won’t get that level of offensive production from the forward.
Defensive Breakdowns Cost Tennessee Late At Rupp Arena
In the second meeting, Kentucky led 61-60 coming out of the final media timeout. The Wildcats promptly outscored Tennessee 14-4 in the game’s final 3:30. Rick Barnes was hot due to Tennessee’s late-game defensive breakdowns that gave the Wildcats easy buckets at the rim.
Ironically, the regular season game that Tennessee lost by 11 points was truly a closer game than the one they lost by five points.
Kentucky is a very tough team to guard and they did a lot of damage at the rim against Tennessee. The Vols have to be locked in to what they’re doing defensively in this game. Absolutely can not have the same defensive breakdowns that plagued them in the second matchup.
If Tennessee is locked in defensively and Kentucky cools down a bit from deep then the Vols should be in good shape.
Tennessee Controlled The Turnover And Rebounding Battle
The remarkable part about Tennessee’s home loss to Kentucky is that the Vols took 22 more shots. 22 MORE SHOTS. If Tennessee takes 22 more shots than Kentucky on Friday night then I’ll like its chances.
The Vols did that by winning the rebounding and turnover battle. In the Knoxville meeting, Tennessee won the turnover battle 13-5 and won the rebounding battle 41-38 despite missing 22 more shots.
Those numbers weren’t nearly as dramatic in the second game with Tennessee losing the turnover battle 9-8 and winning on the glass 33-26 despite missing five more shots. The Kentucky games are the only two games this season where Tennessee has won the rebounding battle and lost the game.
Rebounding the basketball and winning the turnover battle are bread-and-butter game indicators. If Tennessee can continue the regular season trend then they should be in good shape.
