Tennessee basketball is back in the NCAA Tournament for the seventh straight season as the Vols chase their first Final Four berth in program history.
With Dalton Knecht leading the way, Tennessee basketball came up one game short of the Final Four. The Vols are a two-seed for the second straight season in the tournament. It’s the third time Tennessee has been a two-seed during Barnes’ tenure with the previous two ending in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
So why could this team be different and make the Final Four? Looking at three reasons here.
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Tennessee Has Veteran Guards Playing At A High Level
A consistent winning formula in March is veteran guards and the Vols have four seniors who are the top players and leaders on this team.
Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack have been through the battles in the NCAA Tournament throughout their career. Jordan Gainey experienced the NCAA Tournament last season and played some of his best basketball of the season. Of the main guards, only transfer Chaz Lanier has not played in the NCAA Tournament.
All four players enter the tournament playing well. Since the Vols lost at Rupp Arena in early February, a turning point in the season, Zeigler is averaging 15.7 points and seven assists, Lanier is averaging 18.6 points on 39% three-point shooting and Gainey is averaging 13.4 points.
Those three have established themselves as Tennessee’s top offensive options and should be confident entering the tournament. Mashack is a defensive stopper and while he’s no offensive star, he’s found some more consistency over the last month.
That quartet playing the way they have the last month is a formula for a deep run.
Vols Have Shown Offensive Consistency Down The Stretch
For most of this season, Tennessee’s offense has gone as its three-point shooting has gone. When the Vols hit three-pointers their offense looks good but when perimeter shots don’t go down they have little offensive answers.
That could still rear its ugly head in a single-elimination tournament, but Tennessee has done a good job of mitigating that concern as of late. In Tennessee’s March wins over South Carolina, Texas and Auburn, the Vols have shot poorly from the three-point line and still had good offensive showings.
Tennessee has found a consistent midrange game with Lanier and Gainey. Both Gainey and Zeigler has been more consistent and effective getting to the free throw line and scoring at the basket.
Look no further than Gainey to illustrate Tennessee’s ability to score without hitting three-pointers. Over the last nine games, Gainey is averaging 13.4 points and is shooting just 27% from three-point range.
There’s No Juggernaut In Tennessee’s Region
Tennessee was perhaps the third best team in the country last season. They were definitely the third best team remaining in the Elite Eight.
But the Vols had to face Purdue, the second best team in the country, in the Elite Eight and fell to Zach Edey and the Boilermakers to end their season. Houston is the one-seed in the Midwest Region and they’re a good team but they’re also not a juggernaut.
From an analytical standpoint, Tennessee’s half of the Midwest Region is pretty soft. And if the Vols get to the Elite Eight, they will likely have a decent home court advantage in Indianapolis as long as they’re not facing Purdue. Last season in Detroit, the Boilermakers had a significant fan advantage for the Elite Eight game.
In short, Tennessee’s “A” game is good enough to beat anyone else’s “A” game in its region. That wasn’t the case last season.
