After a two-game road trip, Tennessee basketball is back at home on Saturday afternoon where they’ll face Alabama in a top 10 tilt.
It’s the first ever top six matchup at Thompson-Boling Arena/Food City Center and the matchup has major ramifications for each team’s quest to earn a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Here’s three things to watch for ahead of the critical rivalry matchup.
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Can Tennessee Avoid A Slow Start?
Tennessee’s biggest weakness, at least in SEC play, this season has been its consistent slow starts to games. It’s happened both at home and on the road though it’s been more prevalent at home when Tennessee came out the gates extremely sluggish against Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt.
The Vols need to play with a sense of urgency from the jump in this one. Tennessee has been elite at overcoming deficits early in games but that’s risky business. For one, Alabama is the best team that Tennessee has played at home this season. The Crimson Tide can pour it on you and make the deficit bigger than it’s been in most games. And that high powered offense will make it all the harder for Tennessee to come back against.
Two things I’m watching for specifically. What is the scored at the game’s first media timeout? Tennessee should look to be down three points or less. Then what’s the score at halftime? Tennessee’s lost two games the last two seasons while leading at halftime. Its second half success at home this season makes me skeptical that they won’t finish the job if they’re up at halftime.
Will Tennessee Dominate Alabama In Turnover Battle Again?
Tennessee is riding a three-game winning streak over Alabama entering Saturday’s matchup. The biggest common denominator between those games? The Vols have absolutely dominated the turnover battle.
In those three games, Alabama has turned it over 53 times to Tennessee’s 21 turnovers. The Vols have scored 66 points off of Alabama’s turnovers while the Crimson Tide have scored just 15 points off of Tennessee’s turnovers. Those numbers are pretty jarring.
But how plausible is this to happen again? There’s evidence in both directions.
Alabama has turned the ball over at a high clip this season and still doesn’t force many turnovers. In SEC play, Alabama ranks 12th in offensive turnover percentage and 14th in defensive turnover percentage. The Crimson Tide are vulnerable in the turnover battle again.
However, Tennessee isn’t quite as equipped to take advantage as they’ve been in the past. The Vols’ 18.9 defensive turnover rate is solid though its second worst in the last six seasons. It’s been a bit more lackluster in SEC play where they’re forcing turnovers on just 16.7% of possessions. The ball pressure is still there though and Alabama will have to deal with Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack.
Offensively, Tennessee has had turnover issues off-and-on this season. This is the area I’m the most intrigued. If the Vols turn it over seven times, their average in the last three meetings, they stand a great chance to earn another win.
Can Tennessee Slow Down Alabama’s Three-Point Shooting?
Alabama boasts one of the nation’s top offenses and they’ve done it most of the season while being just an average three-point shooting team. But they have the capability to go off from deep like they did against Mississippi State on Tuesday night when they made a staggering 22 three-pointers. There’s not a team in the country that will beat them if they shoot like that.
Tennessee boasts the nation’s third best three-point defense and when you think about the offenses that have given the Vols’ defense issues, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, it’s teams that made a bunch of three-pointers against them at a high clip.
That makes this matchup one of the most interesting in the game. Alabama’s rim offense is elite but Felix Okpara is fantastic at defending the rim. The Crimson Tide need to make outside shots to have a lot of success against Tennessee’s defense.
Interestingly, Alabama is shooting 39% from three-point range on the road this season and just 32% at home. The Crimson Tide have lost just once on the road in SEC play this season.
