Conference play has been relatively rocky for Tennessee basketball as the Vols enter their midweek open date ahead of the home stretch of the regular season.
After not dropping a game in non conference play, Tennessee is 8-5 in SEC play and is currently tied for sixth place in the conference. But despite that, Tennessee remains in the thick of the one-seed race.
Look no further than the latest bracketology updates this week. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode each have Tennessee as the top two-seed while CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm has the Vols as the second two-seed.
Lunardi has Tennessee in the East Region, facing 15-seed Central Connecticut in the opening round of the tournament in Cleveland. Tennessee’s potential Round of 32 opponents are seven-seed Louisville and 10-seed West Virginia.
Other top East Region seeds in Lunardi’s projection include one-seed Duke, three-seed Arizona, four-seed Michigan State, five-seed Kansas and six-seed UCLA.
Rexrode has Tennessee in a similar spot, facing 15-seed Central Connecticut in Cleveland in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. But the potential second round matchup is much different, potentially pitting them against seven-seed UConn or 10-seed Oklahoma in the Round of 32. Connecticut is the two-time defending national champions.
Other top East Region seeds in Rexrode’s projection include one-seed Duke, three-seed Arizona, four-seed St. John’s, five-seed Michigan State and six-seed Mississippi State.
Palm has a different look with Tennessee as the two-seed in the Midwest Region. Opening weekend matchups in Cleveland include 15-seed Towson and either seven-seed Louisville or 10-seed Ohio State. Other top teams in the Midwest Region are one-seed Alabama, three-seed Texas Tech, four-seed Michigan State, five-seed Missouri and six-seed Illinois.
That’s where Tennessee sits at the moment. What do they have to do to climb up the ranks and become a one-seed? The four consensus one seeds at the moment include Auburn, Alabama, Duke and Florida with Lunardi and Rexrode each ranking them in that order.
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Auburn is safely on the one line and Duke likely has to drop games to some bad ACC opponents to fall off of it. That makes Alabama and Florida the two teams that Tennessee is trying to catch. Before we look at what each team has remaining on the schedule, let’s look at their current resumes.
All three teams have only lost to Quad 1 opponents. Tennessee is 8-5 against Quad 1 foes, Alabama is 8-4 while Florida is 5-3. One thing working against the Vols is that they’ve only played three Quad 2 opponents while Alabama and Florida have each faced seven.
Tennessee has a relatively manageable remaining schedule. Its next game is its hardest, going to Texas A&M on Saturday. After that the Vols play at LSU, vs Alabama, at Ole Miss and vs. South Carolina. That’s three Quad 1 games, including two on the road, but also matchups against the SEC’s two worst teams.
Alabama has an absolute gauntlet left. The Crimson Tide’s remaining games are at Missouri, vs. Kentucky, vs. Mississippi State, at Tennessee, vs. Florida and at Auburn. All six are Quad 1 games.
Florida has an easier remaining slate playing vs. Oklahoma, at LSU, at Georgia, vs. Texas A&M, at Alabama and vs. Ole Miss. That includes four Quad 1 games.
Let’s look at a handful of scenarios. Tennessee needs to go no worse than 4-1 if it wants a one-seed. Going 5-0 would really put themselves on solid footing. But let’s say Tennessee goes 4-1 with a loss at Texas A&M. That would make them 10-6 in Quad 1 games.
If Alabama goes 3-3 to close the season, very realistic, they would finish 11-7 against Quad 1 opponents. It’s hard to see Florida losing more than one game. A 5-1 finish for the Gators would see them finish 8-4 in Quad 1 games.
How the committee would judge those relatively similar resumes would be interesting. That’s where Tennessee’s lack of Quad 2 games could really hurt them. It could also make the SEC Tournament extra important.
