ESPN college basketball tournament expert Joe Lunardi penned his thoughts about No. 1 Tennessee before the Vols’ matchup against No. 8 Florida in Gainesville on Tuesday night.
Specifically, Lunardi wrote about Tennessee’s defensive ability in a conference full of offensive juggernauts.
“The immovable object is soon to encounter an irresistible force. Twice, in fact. The object: undefeated Tennessee, specifically, its best-in-the-nation defensive efficiency. On Tuesday night, when the Vols visit Florida and the Gators’ third-ranked offense, something’s got to give,” Lunardi wrote. “Then it gets even better: On Jan. 25, the Vols visit the force that is Auburn. The Tigers have the nation’s top-ranked offense and have been our No. 1 overall seed since Maui.
“Tennessee is right on their heels and, unlike the majority of this season’s best teams, the Vols have been doing it at the other end of the floor, too. They are first in three-point defense (24.3 3PT% allowed), second in effective field goal percentage defense (40.8 eFG% allowed) and create turnovers on a staggering 21.5 percent of opponent possessions.”
As things track now, this season looks to be the fifth straight year that head coach Rick Barnes has built a Top 5 defensive team in Knoxville. Dalton Knecht’s offensive ability helped power the Vols to the Elite Eight last season and Chaz Lanier certainly looks to have the pop to play that role this season. But will it be enough for the Vols to finally break through?
“Yet despite reaching the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight the last two years, Tennessee has never been to a men’s Final Four,” Lunardi wrote. “The next step in that progression is obvious.”
Lunardi’s latest bracketology report from Tuesday has Tennessee as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region in Indianapolis. Tennessee is projected to take on 16-seed Youngstown State before playing either 8-seed San Diego State or 9-seed St. John’s in the second round. Other notable projections in the Midwest Region include 3-seed Kansas, 2-seed Marquette, 4-seed Houston, 5-seed Michigan State, and 7-seed Ole Miss.
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Tennessee previously drew Indianapolis in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. The Vols blew past 14-seed Longwood, 88-56, before getting upset by 11-seed Michigan in the second round, 76-68.
Tennessee has never held a No. 1 seed in the March Madness tournament but has twice been on the two-line during Rick Barnes’ tenure in Knoxville (2019 and 2024). Tennessee was also a two-seed twice during the Bruce Pearl era (2006 and 2008).
The Vols are the second highest-ranked SEC team in the projections among 11 teams from the conference. Lunardi’s SEC projections include No. 1 Tennessee, No. 1 Auburn, No. 2 Kentucky, No. 2 Florida, No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Mississippi State, No. 7 Oklahoma, No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 9 Georgia, No. 9 Arkansas, No. 11 Texas, and No. 11 Vanderbilt.
It’s not hard to quickly catch on to the fact that Lunardi’s projections – and the AP rankings, for that matter – are dominated by the Southeastern Conference. Lunardi’s list on Monday has two SEC teams on the 1-line and three SEC teams on the 2-line. The AP rankings, meanwhile, have those same five teams in the top eight spots of the poll from Monday.
The SEC season is going to be a gauntlet as Tennessee faces one of those tough tests on Tuesday night.
The eighth-ranked Florida Gators will host the top-ranked Tennessee Volunteers in an SEC clash from Gainesville on Tuesday night at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Vols are coming off of a big win over Arkansas in the conference opener while Florida suffered a 106-100 loss to Kentucky to open its league slate last weekend.
Stay tuned to Rocky Top Insider for live coverage of the game on Tuesday.
Check out Lunardi’s latest bracketology report before the game here.
