The Opponent: The Ohio State University was founded in 1870 and was known as the Ohio Agricultural and Mechanical College for its first several years. Ohio Governor Rutherford B. Hayes played a key part in the establishment of the school. Hayes would go on to serve as the 19th President of the United States after winning the most contested election in America’s history. Ohio State has been playing football since 1890. The school has 8 claimed national titles and 39 Big Ten Titles. The school claims the only two-time winner in Heisman Trophy history, Archie Griffin. The Buckeyes are coached by Ryan Day, a former quarterback at the University of New Hampshire. As a player, Day’s offensive coordinator was Chip Kelly. Kelly rose from the offensive coordinator at New Hampshire to an NFL head coach in just seven years. He now serves as offensive coordinator at Ohio State.
Are they any Good?: Yes, Ohio State is a very good football team. Yes, the Buckeyes looked rather abysmal in their last game out against Michigan. That is not totally reflective of what this team has been under Ryan Day though. The Buckeyes are 43-8 under Ryan Day the last four years. Other than this season’s loss to Michigan, all of those losses have been to teams ranked inside the Top 15 nationally. Ohio State wins with talent. Pioneered by recruiting expert Bud Elliott, the Blue Chip Ratio identifies the percentage of a team’s roster that is made up of four and five-star recruits. Going into the 2024 season, Elliott had Ohio State with the highest Blue Chip Ratio of any program in America at 90%. That was higher than both Alabama (88%) and Georgia (80%) according to Elliott. Tennessee did not feature in the Top 16 nationally, making their Blue Chip Ratio under 50%. Obviously recruiting rankings are not everything. Michigan won the 2024 national title at just 54%. The BCR is a pretty good indicator of talent though. It leaves no doubt that Ohio State has a roster loaded with future pros.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: The Vols earned their way into the college football playoffs by going 10-2 in the SEC. Josh Heupel’s program has won 31 games over the last three seasons. No one can deny that Tennessee belongs in this game. A win would mean something more though. Going on the road and defeating a talent-rich team like Ohio State would show that Tennessee belongs in the conversation with the elite programs in America. That is a fairly exclusive club to crack, but a win in Columbus would be impossible for any critic to ignore.
What does Vegas say?: Ohio State opened as either a 7 or 7.5-point favorite when this matchup was announced. The line has mostly stayed in place over the last two weeks. The game total is 46.5. Ohio State was 6-6 ATS during the regular season. Only five of those games hit the Over. Tennessee finished its regular season 7-5 ATS, with seven games hitting the Over. Despite being the #8 seed, Ohio State remains a betting favorite to win the national championship. The Buckeyes are currently +500 to win it all, tied with Georgia for third lowest odds. Tennessee is +2500 to lift the trophy, 7th lowest odds overall. The team in front of the Vols is Notre Dame at +700. Las Vegas seems to think six teams have a real shot at the national title; Oregon, Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State and Notre Dame.
Matchup to watch on Offense: Find a way to run the football. The Vols have done that all season. Tennessee ranks 9th nationally at 232 yards rushing per game. They go up against a Buckeye defense allowing less than 97 yards rushing per game, though. This is the key matchup for the Tennessee offense. Ohio State’s run defense is anchored by two outstanding defensive tackles in Ty Hamilton and Tyleik Williams. Defensive ends Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have over 10 sacks between them, and multiple forced fumbles. Both are very involved against the run as well. Tennessee has to find some form of success against this Buckeye front though. That will certainly feature Dylan Sampson, but will have to involve the quarterback as well. Opposing quarterbacks have had moderate success scrambling against the Buckeyes. Nico Iamaleava has appeared to be a more willing runner in the second half of the season. Tennessee will need a few timely Nico runs to extend drives in this game. In its two losses this season, Ohio State has given up just over 163 yards rushing. That puts the target number for Tennessee at just over 150 yards. The Buckeyes have been outrushed three times this season; Oregon, Nebraska, and Michigan. Ohio State was 1-2 in those games, and only scored 21 points in the lone win against Nebraska. Tennessee has not been out-rushed in a single game this season. It is hard to see a path to victory on Saturday night unless that trend holds true.
More from RTI: Tennessee Football Announces Uniforms For CFP Game At Ohio State
Matchup to watch on Defense: Tennessee’s defensive line versus Ohio State’s offensive line. The Vols have to win this match-up decisively to win this game. The Buckeyes have struggled with significant injuries along their offensive front this season. Future first-round left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the season in early October. Rimington Award-winning center Seth McLaughlin tore his Achilles in November. Ohio State has been forced to shuffle in the aftermath of both injuries. The results have been mixed, and create a potential advantage for Tennessee on Saturday night. The Vols are both deep and talented along their defensive front. It is a unit that has to be disruptive against Ohio State. The Buckeyes struggled offensively at home versus both Nebraska and Michigan. Those struggles largely centered around offensive line play. The Vols certainly have the personnel to punish the Buckeyes, but can they? A similar question was posed going into the Georgia game, and the group’s performance fell flat. The Vols recorded no sacks on Carson Beck, and barely registered any hurries. That will not work on Saturday. Unlike Georgia, Ohio State is loaded at wide receiver. The Buckeyes feature the best trio in college football; Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate. All three are long, fast, and athletic. The trio have 23 touchdowns between them. Tim Banks has faith in his corners, but it is too much to ask of Tennessee’s secondary to cover these three for longer periods of time. If Will Howard can consistently operate in a clean pocket, then the Vols are in trouble. Regardless of where it comes from, Tennessee has to get after Howard on Saturday night. That starts with Rodney Garner’s defensive front.
Fun Fact: Tennessee and Ohio State have been playing football for a combined 267 years, and have 1,874 wins between the two programs. Going into Saturday night, the two schools have only met once though. It was New Year’s Day of 1996 in the Citrus Bowl. Those two teams were mirror images of each other in many ways. Each had only one loss, coming at the hands of hated rivals in Florida and Michigan. The Citrus Bowl was seen as a consolation prize for two programs with national championship aspirations. The field was littered with college football stars; Peyton Manning, Eddie George, Al Wilson, Orlando Pace, Peerless Price, Terry Glenn, Leonard Little, Antoine Winfield, Joey Kent, Jay Graham, Mike Vrabel, Shawn Bryson, Luke Fickell, Shawn Springs, Jason Layman, Terry Fair, and countless others. The game itself was played in a monsoon. You can watch it all here. An early Eddie George touchdown was equalized by a 69-yard rushing touchdown by Jay Graham. The Vols took the lead after halftime on a long completion from Peyton Manning to Joey Kent, and would hold on to win 20-14. Many Ohio State fans will remember it as the “Illegal Cleats” game. Buckeye head coach John Cooper made quite a stink over multiple Vols allegedly wearing illegal soccer cleats with longer studs, thus creating an advantage in sloppy conditions. Cooper, an East Tennessee native himself, won a lot of games in the mid-1990s. He put a lot of Buckeyes in the NFL. For better or worse, his legacy is largely defined by his 2-10-1 record against Michigan though. Comparisons between Cooper and Ryan Day have become more regular in past weeks given Day’s 1-4 record against those same Wolverines. Saturday night Ryan Day has a chance to beat Tennessee for the first time in school history, and exercise the demons of the illegal Citrus Bowl cleats in the process. If he can’t, then it is fair to wonder whether he will suffer the same fate as Jim Cooper soon.
So what happens?: A cold night awaits Tennessee in Columbus, with a trip to the Rose Bowl and sunny California on the line. It would be a SoCal homecoming for Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava. He may have to play his best collegiate game to get Tennessee there. I expect Ohio State to try to force Nico to beat them. The Buckeyes will try to take away the Tennessee ground game, and pressure Nico in obvious passing situations. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is very creative in both how, and when, he brings pressure. The Vols will have to counter with something from the vertical passing game. While a talented player, I would target cornerback Davison Igbinosun early in this game. Igbinosun is a solid physical corner, but he has 11 pass interference calls against him on the season. Looming behind Igbinosun is star safety Caleb Downs, one of the best defensive playmakers in college football. Tennessee has to be aware of Downs when throwing downfield. With a suddenly thin wide receiver corps, expect to see two tight ends on the field regularly for the Vols. That could mean a lot of Ethan Davis in the slot, especially if Squirrel White is not 100%. Regardless of how successful Tennessee is on the ground, the Vols will have to make some plays through the air. Only two opponents have exceeded 200 yards passing against this Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes have given up only 4 passing touchdowns on the season. Defensively, the Vols need to mix it up Saturday night. If Tennessee can create pressure on Will Howard with four pass rushers then the Vols stand a good chance of winning this game. If they can’t, then they have to get more creative in blitz looks. Again, if you give Howard time in the pocket then these receivers will carve you up. It could be a big game for Omarr Norman-Lott bringing pressure from the interior. Alongside James Pearce Jr and Joshua Josephs, a lot of NFL eyes will be on Norman-Lott Saturday night. It is one last opportunity for several Vols to fatten their NFL pay day, as if more motivation is needed.
Red Zone Efficiency will really matter in this game. The Buckeyes are ranked 2nd among playoff teams with a touchdown conversion rate over 77% in Red Zone trips. Tennessee is ranked 11th amongst playoff peers at just under 62%. Ohio State features the nation’s best Red Zone defense, whereas the Vols are 11th nationally. Both defenses allow touchdowns on less than half of their opponents’ Red Zone trips. Which offense can break through on a chilly Saturday night will go a long way in deciding this game. Ohio State’s talent is undeniable. I have come this far without even mentioning TreVeyon Henderson or Quinshon Judkins, probably the most talented 1-2 punch at running back in America. That is a testament to how stacked this roster is with future pros. The game is not played on paper though. Ohio State has not always looked like the sum of its parts this season. Tennessee’s path to victory involves dominating both lines of scrimmage. It is a very plausible path. If this game were being played inside Neyland Stadium, then I would be picking Tennessee to win. The same is probably true if this were on a neutral field. I think the Vols are going to need to score 24+ points on Saturday night though. I struggle to see that happen because this Ohio State defense is really good, and this Tennessee offense does not always travel. I expect a good game. A few splash plays from Ohio State’s receivers will be the difference, though. Buckeyes 27, Vols 17
One Response
Remember what happened in the Iowa game? All of the talk about their defense? I’ll take the Vols 31-10.