No. 7 Tennessee landed behind No. 6 Ohio State in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night.
The big question heading into the night was whether or not Ohio State’s loss to unranked Michigan last Saturday would be enough to slide the Buckeyes behind Tennessee with both teams sitting at 10-2 on the season.
While the AP Poll voters and Coaches Rankings participants both said yes to that hypothetical question, the selection committee did not on Tuesday night. Tennessee sits in front of Ohio State in the Week 15 AP and Coaches rankings but is one spot behind the Buckeyes in the fifth edition of the CFB Playoff rankings.
Ohio State’s ranking at No. 6 compared to Tennessee’s ranking at No. 7 means that the Buckeyes would be projected to host the Vols in the first round of the playoffs from Columbus, OH. Had Tennessee been ranked ahead and the two spots flipped, it would be the Vols projected to host the Buckeyes from Neyland Stadium in the first round.
Tennessee also looks to have the hardest route through the playoffs based on Tuesday’s rankings. According to the current projections, the winner of Tennessee-Ohio State will face 1-seed Oregon in the quarterfinals of the playoffs. The bottom half of the 12-team bracket is still a challenge in its own right with three SEC teams projected, but the path of visiting Ohio State followed by a neutral site against the nation’s No. 1 team looks to be the toughest path, especially early on, of any team.
There are still a few possibilities for change with conference championship weekend set to be played on Saturday. None of these are guarantees, as the committee’s selections are based on opinion, but we can get an idea about potential moving routes based on previous actions.
The first avenue is if Penn State loses by a decent margin in the Big Ten championship game to Oregon, the Nittany Lions could potentially move to Ohio State’s spot ahead of Tennessee and force the Vols to travel to Happy Valley in the first round in the same 8/9 matchup.
Although neither of these options is guaranteed, the best route for Tennessee to host a game in Neyland Stadium is if Penn State and/or Georgia get absolutely crushed in their respective conference title games this weekend. Perhaps a huge loss from either school would be impactful enough to not drop either from the rankings but move them into a road-game position in the first round. With Tennessee being the highest-ranked road team in Tuesday’s rankings, the Vols just need one team to drop behind them after a huge loss. It doesn’t feel likely that Penn State or Georgia would fall behind Tennessee with losses this weekend, but it’s the Vols’ only two slim shots to host a first-round game in Knoxville.
Warde Manuel on whether Georgia would stay ahead of Tennessee if it loses SEC title game:
“It depends on the outcome of the game as to whether or not teams will move above or below other teams. We haven’t watched the (SEC title game). … There are a lot of data points.”
— Adam Sparks (@AdamSparks) December 4, 2024
THE UPDATED CFP BRACKET PROJECTION 🏈 pic.twitter.com/5dB1gqvoD0
— ESPN (@espn) December 4, 2024
More from RTI: Where Tennessee Lands In College Football Playoff Rankings At End Of Regular Season
Here’s a look at the season comparison between Tennessee and Ohio State with the Buckeyes being ranked one spot above the Vols in Tuesday’s penultimate rankings/bracket update.
Team Comparison
Strength of Schedule
Ohio State: No. 26
Tennessee: No. 28
Strength of Record
Ohio State: No. 6
Tennessee: No. 7
ESPN Football Power Index
Ohio State: No. 3
Tennessee: No. 7
Wins
Ohio State: Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska, No. 3 Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern, No. 5 Indiana
Tennessee: Chattanooga, No. 24 NC State, Kent State, No. 15 Oklahoma, Florida, No. 7 Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State, UTEP, Vanderbilt
Losses:
Ohio State: No. 3 Oregon (10/12), Michigan (11/30)
Tennessee: Arkansas (10/5), No. 12 Georgia (11/16)
