The Opponent: Originally established by the Methodist Church, Vanderbilt was initially called Central University. After a very generous gift from New Yorker Cornelius Vanderbilt, the school renamed itself just a few years after its founding. Vanderbilt is the only private school in the SEC and has the smallest overall enrollment at less than 7,500 undergraduate students. Vanderbilt has been playing football since 1890 and is yet another founding member of the SEC. Vanderbilt is coached by former Commodore, Clark Lea. After going just 9-27 in his first three seasons, including 2-22 in the SEC, Lea is enjoying a breakout season in Nashville. Saturday will be the 119th meeting between Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The Vols hold the all-time advantage at 78-32-5.
Are they any good?: Yes, Vanderbilt is a good football team. Nobody expected to be reading that in August, but Clark Lea has done a great job with this Vanderbilt team. Lea went out last off-season and scored a winning combination via New Mexico State. Vanderbilt brought in Tim Beck as their new offensive coordinator and brought along Beck’s Aggie quarterback in Diego Pavia. Pavia has been the poster child for this scrappy Vanderbilt bunch. His effort in their historic upset of Alabama was one of the best single-game performances of this college football season. While it has not garnered the same headlines, Lea has also really improved this Commodore defense in his fourth season. Vandy was horrendous against the run last season but has made great strides in 2024. Nothing Vanderbilt does jumps off the page from a stats standpoint, but the Dores find a way to keep every game close. They have only one loss that was more than a single score, 28-7 against South Carolina. Vanderbilt could finish 4-4 in the SEC with a win on Saturday. The Dores have been outscored 164-152 in conference play. Last season’s margin was 317-135. That improvement puts Lea squarely in the conversation for SEC Coach of the Year.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: Are the Vols ready to take the next step under Josh Heupel? It is hard to imagine a more stark contrast than what Saturday’s result could produce. With a win, Tennessee is in the inaugural expanded college football playoff. The Vols would also make a legitimate claim to be included in the SEC’s top tier in the first year of a new look conference. A loss would summon some very dark clouds over Rocky Top though. It could likely see Tennessee tumble all the way to an in-state bowl game. It would be a loss that a portion of the fan base would really struggle to forget. Josh Heupel has built his program in all the right ways since arriving in Knoxville. The opportunity is there on Saturday for his program to take the next step.
What does Vegas say?: This line opened at either 10.5 or 11.5 last Sunday, depending on the book. It has stayed in that same area all week. The Over/Under appears fairly set at 48.5. Vanderbilt is 8-3 ATS this season. The Dores have not had a game go Over since their early October upset of Alabama. Tennessee is 6-5 ATS for the season, but just 2-5 ATS in SEC play. This will be the third time this season a Tennessee game total will be under 50. In both other instances (Kentucky & Georgia), the game has gone Over.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Get off the field. Only Florida has run fewer offensive plays than Vanderbilt this season, yet the Dores are still towards the top of the SEC in time of possession. Clark Lea’s team has done a very nice job of shortening games and limiting possessions. It is a really smart strategy when you are playing most games with a talent and depth disparity. That will clearly be Vanderbilt’s goal on Saturday. It is a tactic that has frustrated this Tennessee offense at times under Josh Heupel. We saw Tennessee struggle in Fayetteville when limited to just 64 total plays. Tennessee has the best third-down defense in the SEC, allowing opponents to convert less than 29% of third downs on the year. That number is still just 32% in conference games only. Stopping Vanderbilt’s offense obviously starts with containing Diego Pavia. The New Mexico native leads the Commodores in both rushing yards and attempts. Vanderbilt has a true option attack. They throw in a lot of motion with that, all of which stresses defenders into getting out of position. Eye discipline is a term thrown around frequently this week. The Commodores want to catch defensive backs peaking into the backfield. It is a good way to lose your man, or your assignment, and give up a big passing play. It is how Vandy scored the first touchdown in Baton Rouge last weekend. Linebackers will also be stressed with pre-snap motion. This creates a big challenge for a Tennessee team that is among the most penalized in the SEC. Pavia has been playing most of this season banged up. He has taken a lot of hits. His six rushing attempts against LSU last Saturday were less than half of his season average. Tennessee should expect a player like Pavia to leave it all on the field on Saturday though. It will be interesting to see how much he runs early in the game on Saturday, and whether he shys from contact. The Commodores use Pavia’s legs to stay ahead of the chains on offense. If you can limit his running ability then you can put Vanderbilt in third and long situations. That would greatly increase Tennessee’s chances of getting off the field, and getting the ball back to their offense.
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Matchup to watch on Offense: Get Nico Iamaleave in rhythm early on Saturday. Nico has been playing better football as the season has gone along. He was poor to start the UTEP game but has otherwise completed over 60% of his passes in four straight games. They face off against a Vanderbilt secondary allowing opponents to complete 67% of their passes for the season. Tennessee does not need to worry about style points on Saturday, they just need a win. This coaching staff would be wise to start Saturday’s game with some easy throws to get their quarterback in rhythm. Look for the Vols to involve their tight ends heavily on Saturday. That group had six catches against UTEP. More importantly, look for Dylan Sampson to get involved in the passing game. While not often a feature of Josh Heupel’s offense, Sampson has five catches over his last two games. He is averaging over 8 yards per catch on those plays. Finally, expect to see plenty of short passes to Tennessee receivers on the boundary Saturday afternoon. It is a staple of Heupel’s offense, and a good way to get Nico going early. LSU had success doing the same against this Vanderbilt defense last Saturday. Tennessee needs to get its young quarterback playing confidently this weekend. Everyone knows that the Vols want to ride Dylan Sampson in this regular-season finale. Josh Heupel’s offenses have had a lot of success on the ground against Clark Lea’s defenses. To continue that trend, Tennessee has to make Vanderbilt first respect its passing game.
Fun Fact: Most folks have heard the term robber baron, but few understand its meaning. The term has roots as far back as feudal Europe, but really took on a new life during the American Gilded Age of the late 19th century. Robber baron was frequently used to describe American industrialists who were hell-bent on expanding their empires. Prime examples include John D. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, and Cornelius Vanderbilt. The term robber baron suggested ruthless business tactics, oftentimes even unethical practices. Just before providing the generous gift that would ultimately grow Central University in Nashville to Vanderbilt University, Cornelius Vanderbilt was locked into a battle for control of the Erie Railroad. The battle pitted the stodgy old Commodore versus upstart Wall Street traders Jay Gould and Jim Fisk. While the Erie Railroad itself was not very profitable, it held great value to Vanderbilt once combined with the rest of his existing railroad holdings. Think about it like the game of Monopoly. The battle for control of the Erie dominated national headlines for much of 1868 and 1869. It is one of the few financial battles ultimately lost by Cornelius Vanderbilt, who was still considered the richest man in America at the time. The Commodore was outfoxed by even more ruthless robber barons in this particular battle though. Jay Gould barely escaped prosecution for his role in financial manipulations that ultimately triggered the Black Friday financial crash of 1869. Jim Fisk was murdered just a few years later while refusing to pay a blackmailer. The life of a robber baron is not always glamorous.
So what happens?: It all comes down to this. For Tennessee it is simple, win and you’re in. Defensively, Tennessee knows what it needs to do. The Vols need to stay disciplined and contain Diego Pavia. They have to contain Pavia while also accounting for downfield receivers. Tight end Eli Stowers is a weapon. Vanderbilt has certainly studied what Georgia did with its tight ends against Tennessee, especially in the second half. Tim Banks’ defense has to expect Stowers to attack the middle of the field. This is a Vanderbilt offense averaging about 70 yards less per game in November compared to the first part of its season. A lot of that is directly tied to Diego Pavia’s success on the ground. The final battle will play out in the Red Zone though. The Commodores have been incredibly effective in the Red Zone this season, scoring on over 92% of their chances. Tennessee has had one of the better Red Zone defenses in the SEC though. Who plays closer to their season average will go a long way in determining Saturday’s winner.
Josh Heupel’s offense has averaged nearly 50 points per game against Vanderbilt and Clark Lea. However, Lea has improved his scoring defense by two touchdowns compared to his 2023 team. Tennessee is not going to sniff 50 on Saturday afternoon. Can the Vols get to 30 though? The Vols are averaging less than 19 points per game through three SEC road games this season. Saturday won’t be a true road game though. First Bank Stadium has a reduced capacity of under 30,000 due to ongoing construction. Per usual, expect 60-70% of the crowd to be in orange. That should allow Tennessee’s offense to operate in a fairly tame environment. Vanderbilt will bring pressure defensively. The Commodores will bring blitzes from the second and third level often. Linebackers Randon Fontenette and Nicholas Rinaldi both have over three sacks on the season. I have gone this far without talking much about Dylan Sampson though. The Vols limited Sampson’s carries against UTEP last weekend to his lowest of the season. Expect Sampson to have 25+ carries on Saturday. He sits 157 yards away from the Tennessee single-season rushing record. The Louisiana native has never rushed for more than 150 yards in a single game. He won’t quite get there on rushing alone on Saturday, but will eclipse 150 yards of total offense. While Clark Lea’s defense has greatly improved this season, it is hard to totally ignore past results. Tennessee has rushed for over 800 yards against the Commodores the last three seasons. It may be a slow start, but expect the Vols to find their footing in the ground game in the second half. Tennessee will be just under 200 yards in both passing and rushing. That balanced approach, combined with a punishing defense, will be enough to get Tennessee out of Nashville with a win. Vols 28, Commodores 17
