Tennessee Football’s Path To Hosting A College Football Playoff Game

Entering week 13 of the college football season, Tennessee was right on the outside of the College Football Playoff field and needed help to make the 12-team field.

The Vols got plenty of help with Florida upsetting Ole Miss, Oklahoma upsetting Alabama and Ohio State blowing out Indiana. Those three results propelled Tennessee up three-spots to No. 8 in the CFP rankings Tuesday night. But the more pertinent number is that the Vols would be the No. 9 seed in the playoffs if chalk holds the rest of the way.

After being outside the playoff field a week ago, Tennessee just has to move up one spot in the rankings to host a College Football Playoff game. What do they need to happen to make the jump?

We’ll start with the obvious point. Tennessee has to beat Vanderbilt in its regular season finale to improve to 10-2 (6-2 SEC). If the Vols drop their regular-season finale they won’t make the playoffs, let alone host a first round game.

There are two most likely things that could happen for Tennessee to jump up in the rankings. The first is for Southern Cal to upset No. 5 Notre Dame on Saturday in Los Angeles. That would move the Fighting Irish to 10-2 with a pair of shaky losses.

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The other outcome that could move Tennessee up a spot is if No. 20 Texas A&M beats No. 3 Texas in College Station. It’s less certain that the Longhorns would fall behind Tennessee with a loss but their lack of quality wins would make it possible.

But there is one other tricky aspect if the Aggies win. Texas A&M advances to the SEC Championship with a win over the Longhorns. If the Aggies were to also beat Georgia in Atlanta, then they would be guaranteed a top four-seed. Even with a third loss, Georgia would likely remain ranked ahead of Tennessee.

To sum up the SEC scenario, Tennessee needs Texas A&M to defeat Texas and then lose to Georgia so they can potentially be the second highest ranked team in the SEC.

Neither of those scenarios are probable but both are quite plausible. Southern Cal is 7.5-point underdogs against Notre Dame and Texas A&M is 5.5-point underdogs against Texas. Both Florida and Oklahoma were bigger underdogs last weeks.

The only other scenario that would allow Tennessee to jump up in the seeding is if Penn State loses as 24.5-point home favorites against Maryland this week.

But all focus is on Vanderbilt for the Volunteer football team. Kickoff between Tennessee and Vanderbilt is at noon ET on Saturday afternoon. Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek and Taylor McGreggor are on the call for ABC.