NFL Week 13 offers a feast with 16 games over a five-day span, and I have three early-week NFL underdog picks against the point spread, including a quick analysis of each matchup.
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I went 1-2 with my Week 12 underdog selections, dropping my ATS season record to 15-20-1 with 10 outright winners.
NFL underdog picks for Week 13: Las Vegas Raiders (+13.5 FanDuel) at Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are at it again, pacing the AFC and tied for the league’s best record at 10-1.
But against the spread, K.C. is below .500 at 5-6, including a 2-5 mark when laying at least 3.5 points. That includes a 27-20 Week 8 road win as a 9-point favorite in Las Vegas — one of eight one-score victories for Mahomes and Co., on the season.
It’s a continuation of Kansas City’s recent track record. The Chiefs rank second in the league with a home record of 36-10 (.783, including playoffs) since the start of the 2020 season but are way down at 24th with a home ATS mark of 20-25-1 (.444) during that span.
The Raiders, who could be turning back to second-year QB Aidan O’Connell following Gardner Minshew’s season-ending collarbone fracture Sunday, own a 2-9 record and the league’s longest current losing streak at seven straight.
But we’ll play the percentages on Friday and go with a Chiefs win … and a Raiders cover.
NFL underdog picks for Week 13: Carolina Panthers (+6.5 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here’s another trend that could’ve been mentioned above: In division games this season, NFL underdogs of 6-plus points are 13-5-1 ATS, with eight outright victories.
And despite its 3-8 overall record, Carolina is an attractive divisional dog Sunday as it hosts 5-6 Tampa Bay.
QB Bryce Young and Panthers have shown some marked improvement of late, winning two of their last three and taking the Chiefs down to the final play in a 30-27 home loss Sunday as a 10.5-point underdog.
Overall, Carolina is 4-3 ATS this season when catching six or more points.
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, meanwhile, are coming off a 30-7 road rout of the lowly Giants, but that stands as their only win in their last five outings.
NFL underdog picks for Week 13: New Orleans Saints (+3 DraftKings) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Saints (4-7) have had a strange season.
They started 2-0 with a pair of blowout wins, followed by a seven-game losing streak and the firing of head coach Dennis Allen. Since, under interim coach Darren Rizzi, New Orleans has won back-to-back games as a home underdog.
On Sunday, the Saints play a third straight such contest coming off their Week 12 bye as a 2.5-point dog vs. the visiting Rams.
L.A. has dropped lost two of its last three and possesses one of the league’s worst defenses (26th in both points and yards allowed and 28th vs. the run).
That doesn’t instill much faith as a road favorite going up against one of the league’s top running backs in the Saints’ Alvin Kamara (third with 1,225 scrimmage yards) and a dangerous all-purpose weapon in Taysom Hill, who rushed for a career-high 138 yards and three TDs in a Week 10 win over Cleveland.
