After a day of SEC chaos broke Tennessee’s way, the Vols now control their own destiny in the College Football Playoff race ahead of their regular season finale. What seed Tennessee would be in the playoffs remains unclear but if they beat Vanderbilt, they’ll make the playoffs.
The good news is that Tennessee is a relatively substantial favorite against its instate rival, opening as 11.5-point favorites on Sunday according to the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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But there’s a betting trend that indicates this game will be closer than the experts in the desert expect. Vanderbilt has been underdogs eight times this season and in those games they are 7-1 against the spread. The only game the Commodores didn’t cover as underdogs was their home matchup against South Carolina.
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Not only have the Commodores been good against the spread as underdogs but they’ve also won a number of games outright as underdogs. Vanderbilt is 4-4 outright as underdogs including wins over Virginia Tech, Alabama, Kentucky and Auburn.
It’s already been a successful season for Clark Lea’s Vanderbilt squad. The Commodores enter the regular season finale 6-5 (3-4 SEC) and have clinched bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018. Vanderbilt has been one of the biggest surprises in the SEC and pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season over Alabama.
Vanderbilt was playing great in the middle of the season when they won four out of five SEC games with the lone loss being a narrow one against Texas. But the Commodores have struggled a bit as of late and enters the rivalry matchup coming off losses against South Carolina and LSU.
Tennessee enters the critical matchup 9-2 (5-2 SEC) and coming off a blowout win over UTEP after dropping its second game of the season the week prior at Georgia. The Vols are only 1-2 on the road this season but Tennessee fans will almost certainly be the majority at Vanderbilt’s FirstBank Stadium.
Kickoff from the Volunteer State capital is at noon ET on Saturday. ABC is broadcasting the critical matchup.