NFL Week 12 is here, and I have three more NFL underdog picks against the point spread, including a quick analysis of each matchup.
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NFL favorites bounced back in a big way in Week 11, resulting in a 1-2 week in this corner. That drops my ATS underdog season record to 14-18-1 with 10 outright winners.
NFL underdog picks for Week 12: Chicago Bears (+3.5 Caesars) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Recent series history is on the side of the Vikings (8-2), who have beaten the Bears (4-6) in five of their last six meetings.
So is momentum as Minnesota enters the contest with a three-game win streak while Chicago has dropped four in a row.
But the Bears have the defense (seventh in both points allowed and takeaways) to stymie the Vikings and fluster QB Sam Darnold, who has five interceptions and two fumbles over his last three games.
And if rookie QB Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense builds on the improvement they displayed a week ago in the first game under new coordinator Thomas Brown, Chicago has a strong chance to cover if not pull the outright upset.
NFL underdog picks for Week 12: Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5 FanDuel) vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos (6-5) and Raiders (2-8) have been trending in opposite directions since their Week 5 meeting in the Mile High City.
And, in fact, Denver’s 34-18 win that day marked the first of six straight losses for Vegas — the longest current drought in the league.
But the Broncos’ 16-point win wasn’t as lopsided as it seems as the Raiders outgained the hosts 330-289 in the game and were set back mightily by a 3-0 turnover deficit.
One of those giveaways turned the whole game around as cornerback Pat Surtain’s 100-yard pick-6 in the second quarter was a 14-point swing, turning what could’ve been a 17-3 Raiders lead into a 10-10 deadlock.
Overall, the Raiders have won eight of the last nine in the series and eight straight at home, and they should muster enough in a divisional game to cover a point spread that has ballooned significantly in favor of the Broncos over the last week.
NFL underdog picks for Week 12: San Francisco 49ers (+2 bet365) at Green Bay Packers
This seemingly sets up well for the Packers (7-3) who are playing at home with playoff revenge against a struggling 49ers team (5-5) currently on the outside looking in at the NFC postseason picture.
But all is not as rosy as it appears in Green Bay.
QB Jordan Love has thrown an interception in all eight games he’s played and is tied for the league lead with 11 picks. Meanwhile, the Pack hasn’t covered in four straight outings despite a 3-1 record during that span.
As for the Niners, they figure to be extra motivated following a last-second, 20-17 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks last week and should have injured stars George Kittle and Nick Bosa back for this one.
