The Opponent: The University of Georgia was founded in 1785 and is the oldest public university in the country. It is the fourth largest school in the SEC, with just over 40,000 total students. Georgia began playing football in 1892. They are a charter member of the SEC and claim 14 SEC titles. Georgia is coached by Kirby Smart, in his 9th season in Athens. Smart is 101-18 overall, and 61-11 in SEC play. Saturday will be just the 54th meeting all-time between Tennessee and Georgia. Georgia leads the all-time series 28-23-2 thanks to a current seven-game winning streak over the Volunteers.
Are they any Good?: Yes, once again Georgia has a very good football team. The Bulldogs may appear mortal for the first time in several seasons, but this is still a championship-caliber team. While they have not been as consistent throughout this season, Georgia has still shown that they have a sixth gear that few teams in America can match. It is a group that is especially salty at home. The Bulldogs have won 28 consecutive home games, dating back to South Carolina in 2019. That streak won’t break easy. Georgia has also not lost consecutive regular-season games since Kirby Smart’s first season in 2016.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: Are the Vols a championship-caliber team? A win would certainly prove that. A close loss may prove that as well. Style points may end up mattering to the College Football Playoff committee. Tennessee has proven it can beat anyone inside Neyland Stadium. The Vols are 19-1 in their last 20 games at home. Can they do it on the road though? Over that same time period, Josh Heupel is 6-6 in true road games. Those include wins against three ranked opponents; Pitt, LSU, and Kentucky. They also include losses against three unranked opponents; South Carolina, Florida, and Arkansas. A win Saturday night would certainly be Heupel’s biggest road win of his career. It would also indicate that his Tennessee team is indeed championship caliber.
What does Vegas say?: This line has been on a roller coaster over the last several weeks. Prior to last weekend’s results, you could bet this game at Georgia -8.5. With the uncertainty surrounding Nico Iamaleava, the line has pinged between 9.5 to 11.5 this week. As of Thursday afternoon, it has settled at either 10 or 10.5. Expect movement in either direction once Nico’s status is official. The game total is between 47.5 and 48.5, remarkably low for a matchup of Top 10 teams. Tennessee has yet to give up 20 points in a single game this season. Georgia is giving up just under 16 ppg at home on the year. Georgia is 2-7 ATS this season. Six of their games have gone Under. Tennessee is now 5-4 ATS on the year, with the Under hitting in the slight majority of the Volunteers’ games. The two teams are a combined 2-8 ATS since September.
Matchup to watch on Offense: Find a way to run the football. This is a priority regardless of Nico Iamaleava’s availability, although it becomes even more critical if the Vols are playing with a backup QB. It is also something Tennessee has not been able to do against Georgia in many years. Tennessee’s last win in this series was 2016. That is the last time the Vols have come anywhere close to 4.0 yards per carry against this Georgia defense. That number has averaged to around 2.0 yards per carry in the Heupel era, once you exclude Jaylen Wright’s opening 75-yard touchdown last season. Georgia is really solid against the run this season. They are not as dominant as we are used to from a Kirby Smart defense though. The Dawgs are giving up 111 yards per game on the ground, or 3.35 yards per carry. Veteran linebacker Smael Mondon returned to the lineup last week. He is flanked by sophomore CJ Allen, tied for the team lead in tackles with 49. With Desean Bishop out again for the Volunteers, expect 20+ carries from workhorse Dylan Sampson. Sampson went from never having lost a fumble in his career, to losing a fumble in three straight games. It is something he and his position coach have discussed and something Georgia defenders will clearly key in on. Quarterbacks have had some success running against this Georgia defense. It feels unlikely you will see many designed QB runs if Nico plays though. Expect Tennessee to rely heavily on its 12-personnel package with both Miles Kitselman and Holden Staes in the game. The Vols have to find a way to make Dylan Sampson productive on Saturday night. That doesn’t mean Sampson needs his usual 5.6 yards per carry. Tennessee needs him to get as close to 4.0 as possible though.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Own the line of scrimmage. That was the story coming out of Oxford last weekend. The Rebels’ revamped defensive line dominated Georgia’s front. They allowed little to nothing for the Georgia ground game and were able to constantly harass Carson Beck. It set a very high bar for Tennessee to match on Saturday night. Maybe the Vols don’t have to be at that level of success, but they have to be close. It certainly starts with run defense, where Tennessee has been leaky these past two games. Yes, Tennessee still ranks at the top of the conference in run defense. Those numbers have slipped dramatically the past two games though. Tennessee was surrendering just 79 yards per game going into the Kentucky game. The Vols gave up 347 yards combined to Kentucky and Mississippi State though. That is not all on the defensive line. Linebacker play has not been good enough in run support in recent weeks. That has to tighten up for Tennessee to have a chance to win on Saturday. It starts on the defensive front though. Then the Vols have to attack Carson Beck on passing downs. Over his last three games, Beck has taken eight sacks and thrown seven interceptions. For whatever reason, Beck is not playing with a ton of confidence at the moment. He returns home for the first time after that rough three-game stretch. I don’t think it would take much for Carson Beck to find that confidence again, in which case the Vols could be in trouble. Tennessee’s defensive front is tasked with keeping Beck under duress and trying to continue his turnover streak. This unit has carried the Vols through several pedestrian offensive performances this season. They will be called upon again Saturday night. It is a Tennessee bunch that is averaging three sacks per game and 8.5 tackles for loss in conference play. They have to clearly outplay Georgia’s offensive line Saturday night to give the Vols a chance in this one.
Fun Fact: One name still looms larger than most when it comes to Georgia football. In spite of all their recent success, it is hard to imagine any one player eclipsing the reputation of Hershel Walker in Athens. The 1982 Heisman Trophy winner was a man amongst boys in college football. The Legend of Herschel Walker was unfortunately built across the shoulder pads of Tennessee’s Bill Bates. Long before Madden video games would introduce the phrase “truck stick”, Herschel Walker gave us a timeless example while scoring his first collegiate touchdown. He went straight through Bates in the process, securing a 16-15 win for Georgia during their 1980 National Championship season. The two would cross paths again though. They were teammates for the Dallas Cowboys from 1986 – 1989. This was before Herschel Walker was shipped to the Minnesota Vikings in one of the most infamous trades in NFL history. The Cowboys used the mammoth haul of draft picks to build themselves up from a 1-15 team to a Super Bowl winner in a few short years. Bill Bates ended his 15-year NFL career with three Super Bowl rings. Walker played nine more NFL seasons with four different teams and retired a Dallas Cowboy the same year as Bill Bates. Despite a failed run for the US Senate, Herschel Walker remains part of the political news cycle. Less than two weeks ago, President Trump touted the idea of a new missile defense shield at a Georgia political rally. He even teased the crowd that he may, “put Herschel Walker in charge of that little sucker”. Maybe the final chapter on Herschel Walker isn’t written quite yet.
So what happens?: I will start with a massive disclaimer. As of Thursday afternoon, Nico Iamaleava’s status is unknown for Saturday. That makes any specific prediction a real fool’s errand. As the Main Ingredient said in their 1972 R&B hit, Everybody Plays the Fool, so here goes my turn…
For all the worries over where a 10-2 Tennessee team would rank compared to other bubble teams, the Vols still have games to play. A 9-3 finish is not out of the question, but neither is 11-1. Both teams in this game still have complete control of their playoff destinies. Josh Heupel’s track record against Kirby Smart has been frightening. His offenses are averaging 13 points per game against Smart’s defense through three games. As highlighted above, the Vols have not been able to run on Georgia’s defense. The Bulldog secondary has largely smothered Tennessee’s pass game with press coverage in recent years. It has just been a very lopsided match up for the Vols. To be fair though, which programs have looked good against Georgia in recent years? The talent gap between the two programs is probably as close as it’s been in some time. Tennessee has receivers in Bru McCoy and Dont’e Thornton (listed as questionable) who appear more capable of getting off press coverage than past Tennessee players. The Vols will need a few chunk plays in the passing game. Ole Miss found a way to scheme receivers open last weekend against this Georgia defense. Tennessee has to try to do the same. Super star safety Malaki Starks is one to keep an eye on when the Vols do throw it deep. Going into this game, the most concerning trend for the Vols is their Red Zone offense. Tennessee has scored just four touchdowns (29%) and three field goals in its last 14 Red Zone attempts. It is a Tennessee offense that has been moving the ball very effectively, but they consistently stall out in the Red Zone. It is hard to imagine Tennessee making drastic improvements in the Red Zone in just one week. That is all the more reason the Vols need to find a few chunk plays. The best way to alleviate Red Zone struggles would be to bypass it altogether.
For this to be a close game late, Tennessee’s defense has to live up to its reputation. That means consistent pressure on the quarterback, salty against the run, and able to force turnovers. Tennessee can do that Saturday night. Can they do it for four quarters though? The Vols have lost seven straight games to Georgia, all by 14+. There is a path to victory for Tennessee on Saturday night. It involves this offense executing at a much higher level then we have seen this season though. They have to do that on the road, in a hostile environment, and against a quality defense. That is asking a lot. It is an offensive unit that seems dangerously close to clicking in recent weeks. It is mid-November though. At some point you simply are who you are. Recent history in this series is hard to ignore. Tennessee’s defense fights valiantly, but the offense can’t muster enough on the road. Georgia 30, Tennessee 17.
