The Opponent: Mississippi State University for Agriculture and Applied Science, or as it is more commonly known Mississippi State, was founded in 1878. The school has just over 22,000 total students, slightly edging out its rival Ole Miss. Mississippi State first began playing football in 1895 and is another charter member of the SEC. The Bulldogs’ 1941 conference title is their only one in school history. Tennessee is 29-16-1 all-time against Mississippi State. They have only played twice in the last twelve years. Jeremy Pruitt defeated Joe Moorhead 20-10 in 2019 in the last matchup between these teams. Head Coach Jeff Lebby is in his first season in Starkville after several successful stops as an offensive coordinator. Lebby spent two years on Josh Heupel’s staff at UCF. The two coaches share similar offensive styles and DNA, including an uptempo attack.
Are they any Good?: No, this is not a very good Mississippi State team. The Bulldogs are 2-7 on the season, including 0-5 in the SEC. State has a very respectable offense, averaging 24 points per game in conference play. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they are giving up 42.6 points per game through five SEC games. They are starting to flirt with some historically bad defensive metrics, including both scoring and run defense. Mississippi State is certainly in the cellar of the SEC this season, but the cellar of the conference has been raised. The Bulldogs have enough offensive punch to compete with anyone on the right night.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: Can Tennessee finish drives on offense? I wrote last week that Tennessee was running out of time to show some offensive potency this season. This may be the last real opportunity for the Vols to light up the scoreboard. Overall, the offense looked much better against Kentucky. Dylan Sampson ran for his usual clip. The offensive line blocked fairly well. Nico Iamaleava played arguably his best game of the season. It only resulted in 28 points though. The Vols missed field goals. They dropped touchdown passes. They were plagued with inopportune penalties and turnovers. Maybe this could be a good offense, if only they could execute. It is November though, so maybe this is just who Tennessee is going to be in 2024. If the Vols can’t comfortably get to 30+ points against this defense, then that is probably the case.
What does Vegas say?: Tennessee opened as 24.5-point favorites against Mississippi State. That number sits at -23.5 at most books right now. That is a pretty remarkable spread considering Tennessee is averaging just 22.8 ppg in SEC play. It speaks to the defense that the Bulldogs are expected to field Saturday night. The Over/Under in this game is between 60.5 and 61.5. Tennessee is now 5-3 ATS on the season, whereas Mississippi State is 5-4. The Bulldogs were 33+ point underdogs on the road in both Athens and Austin earlier this fall. They covered both spreads easily.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Win in the Red Zone. Mississippi State is going to move the football on Saturday night. The Bulldogs are averaging nearly 400 yards per game in SEC play. They convert third downs at nearly a 40% clip, top five in the SEC. Don’t be alarmed when you see State deep into Tennessee territory Saturday night. The Vols have to win in the Red Zone. Tennessee has been really good in the Red Zone this season. Opponents are only scoring 66.67% of the time against Tennessee in the Red Zone. Only 38% of the time are opponents scoring touchdowns. If the Vols can hold to those averages Saturday night then they should be in good shape to secure win #8 on the season. Michael Van Buren Jr. took over at quarterback for Mississippi State in late September. He is completing 57% of his passes for nine touchdowns to four interceptions. He has played on the road against both Texas and Georgia, so may not be fazed by the environment. Kevin Coleman Jr is the player to watch at receiver for the Bulldogs. The St. Louis native is averaging over six receptions per game, and has five touchdowns on the year. Tight End Seydou Traore is also very active in the throw game for State. Van Buren will target both pass catchers in the end zone Saturday night. Tennessee has to keep them covered, and force Van Buren to hold onto the football a little longer. Mississippi State is giving up more than 3 sacks per game in SEC play. That is a good way to knock opponents out of scoring position. Tennessee has to continue to play tight defense in the Red Zone Saturday night.
More from RTI: Tennessee Football Announces Uniforms For Mississippi State Game
Matchup to watch on Offense: Figure out your receiver rotation. The Vols have had guys banged up in recent weeks. Everyone played against Kentucky though, and everyone appears healthy going into Saturday night. Nine different Vols caught passes against the Wildcats last weekend. That number does not include Ethan Davis, who also featured at tight end. Tennessee’s receivers weren’t terrible overall against Kentucky. Several key drops certainly highlighted the night, but you are also seeing receivers really involved in the run game as well. At the end of the day though, Tennessee is not getting enough playmaking from its receiver position. Tennessee ranks in the bottom half of the SEC in terms of long passing plays for the season. That is not all on the receivers themselves, but it is a group that can play better. This Mississippi State defense should be the cure for what ails Tennessee. The Bulldog secondary is allowing SEC quarterbacks to complete over 78% of their passes, and for well over 300 yards per game through the air. It is a unit that has really been shredded in conference play. Mississippi State also has just two sacks in five SEC games this season. That certainly goes a long way in explaining their struggles in the secondary. Tennessee has skill at the wide receiver position. There have been flashes of brilliance from this group throughout the season. They have not played close to a complete game yet though. The Vols need to use Saturday night as an opportunity to learn who should be getting snaps in key November moments.
Fun Fact: The use of artificial noise inside stadiums was brought up recently after a member of Alabama’s radio team accused Tennessee of pumping in artificial crowd noise during the game. To be clear, there is no proof of this accusation. Still, it raises the question of what is allowed inside stadiums and when. We know cowbells are allowed at Mississippi State home games inside Davis Wade Stadium, a very unique college football tradition. Legend has it that a wayward dairy cow wandered onto the field during a 1930s game between Mississippi State and Ole Miss. The Maroons won that game, and the cow was credited as the good luck charm. Cowbells soon filled up the stadium during the heyday of State football in the 1940s. In 1974, the SEC banned artificial noise makers from inside stadiums. A 2010 ruling by the SEC allowed cowbells legally back inside Davis Wade Stadium but with some caveats. The bells can not be rung once the offensive snap is imminent, and until the play is blown dead. It is effectively the same rule that governs playing music in between plays to amp up the crowd. I would not expect many cowbells in the stands Saturday night in Neyland. The Bulldogs could probably use them though. Mississippi State has won just once in Knoxville in that last 60+ years.
So what Happens?: There is a lot of talk about playoff chances, and Georgia, this week. This is not a good Mississippi State team, but Tennessee could seriously regret overlooking the Bulldogs. The reality is the Vols have not been scoring enough to overlook any opponent. I highlighted the receiver position earlier, but this needs to be a Dylan Sampson game. Mississippi State is giving up over 6 yards per carry in conference play. State has one of the worst run defenses that Tennessee will face this season. The Bulldogs have given up 59 running plays of 10+ yards on the season, by far the worst-performing defense in the SEC by that metric. Sampson has been so steady and consistent this season for Tennessee. Saturday night he will eclipse the 150-yard mark for the first time in his career. The Louisiana native will flirt with 200 yards as Tennessee’s offense moves at its fastest tempo of the season. The tempo and run game will open up opportunities for Nico downfield, and help Tennessee finally cross over the 30-point threshold in conference play.
Mississippi State has a solid offense, and they will move the ball at times on Tennessee. Statistically, this is a similar performing offense to Tennessee’s. There is no comparison between these two defenses though. According to ESPN’s data, Tennessee leads the country in stop rate. That is the percentage of defensive drives that end in a punt, turnover, or turnover on downs. The Vols are producing one of those results on 80.5% of their opponents’ drive, allowing only 0.98 points per drive. Mississippi State is ranked 133 out of 134 teams in America at this same metric. The Bulldogs produce stops on only 38.6% of opponents’ drives. They give up 3.38 points per drive. That has resulted in Mississippi State giving up at least 34 points in every SEC game played this season. Tennessee has yet to eclipse 30 points in any single conference game. Something has to give this weekend. Tennessee’s offense appears to be improving, even if the scoreboard has not reflected that. It is hard to find those glimmers of hope for this State defense though. The Vols play a cleaner offensive game Saturday night, and run away from an overmatched opponent. Tennessee 44, Mississippi State 17
