Tennessee football is coming off its final open date of the season and enters a critical final five-week stretch of the season 6-1 (3-1 SEC) and in the thick of the College Football Playoff race.
Before diving in to everyone else, let’s take a quick look at where Tennessee stands. The Vols’ lone loss came against a mediocre Arkansas team. A trip to Georgia remains on the schedule as does a road game against a solid Vanderbilt team to conclude the regular season. Tennessee’s best win is over Alabama but with NC State and Oklahoma spiraling, there aren’t any other good wins on the Vols’ resume at the moment.
This much is certain at this point, Tennessee has to win out to unquestionably make the College Football Playoff. They could get in at 10-2 but it’s no certainty.
“You make your case by going controlling what you control, which is your performance on Saturday,” Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel said of the playoffs on Monday. “So your preparation takes you there. We’re halfway through the conference schedule. There’s a ton of football. If you’re worried about the end result, you’re going to make the mistakes you can’t afford on the way to the end.”
With that, let’s take a look at the landscape around the country and how it affects Tennessee.
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Seven Spots Up For Grabs
It’s a 12-team playoff but there is really just seven spots truly up for grabs assuming Tennessee does not win the SEC. The champions of the four top conferences will make the playoffs as will the top group of five team.
There’s essentially still 21 teams alive for the 11 non group of five bids.
There’s four teams alive in the ACC— Miami, Clemson, Pitt and SMU. Five teams alive in the Big 10— Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State and Illinois. Seven teams alive in the SEC— Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU and Ole Miss. Four teams alive in the Big 12— BYU, Colorado, Iowa State and Kansas State. Then there’s the independent Notre Dame.
However, there’s little chance of the Big 12 getting more than one team in and you can weed out some pretty unlikely teams to make it in the ACC, Big 10 and SEC. By my count, there’s truly 11 teams including Tennessee competing for the seven outright bids at this point.
The Big 10 Problem
There’s a problem for Tennessee and the rest of the SEC teams vying for an outright bid. The Big 10. I included Illinois in the still alive group because they only have two losses but that feels very unlikely.
However, it’s difficult to see a path to Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Penn State not making it. Ohio State is the only team in that group with a loss and even if they fall to either Penn State or Indiana, the Buckeyes have the brand, talent and preseason hype to get the benefit of the doubt at 10-2.
And those other teams? They’re all unbeaten at this point. Oregon is a lock to make the playoffs. Even if Penn State loses to Ohio State this weekend, if they avoid upsets at Minnesota or home against Washington then they’re all but a lock to make it.
Indiana is a trickier one. The Hoosiers best wins right now are home victories over Nebraska and Washington. Its hardest game remaining besides Ohio State is a bad Michigan team at home. Could a 10-2 get in over an 11-1 Indiana? Maybe. But I’m skeptical.
Barring some pretty big upsets, four Big 10 teams making the playoffs feels like a real possibility.
Tennessee Needs To Root Hard Against The ACC and Notre Dame
The two x-factors right now are what happens in the ACC and with Notre Dame. Let’s start with the Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame has an extremely odd case. They have a great win at Texas A&M and a terrible loss against Northern Illinois. Remaining are games against a good Army team and at USC. A loss should all but eliminate the Fighting Irish. But if they go 11-1, see brand recognition for how they probably overcome the bad loss against Northern Illinois.
On to the ACC where both Pitt and Miami are unbeaten. The Panthers still have their toughest tasks ahead, games at SMU and Louisville as well as home versus Clemson. The Tigers haven’t lost since the Georgia game to open the season.
Tennessee needs two of four things to happen. They need Pitt to lose a game. Then they need either Clemson or Miami to lose in the regular season. If that doesn’t happen, then Tennessee needs Miami to beat Clemson in the ACC Championship.
SMU remains a wild card, but those are the best paths to the ACC getting just one team in.
How Things Shake Out In The SEC
No SEC team is undefeated the the calendar turns to November but Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M and Tennessee all have one loss while Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Missouri have two losses.
Even with two losses, Missouri is eliminated. Alabama and LSU face off next week in what’s an elimination game and Ole Miss has an incredibly tough task against Georgia remaining.
A 10-2 Tennessee team would likely get the nod over a 10-2 Alabama team but what about a 10-2 LSU team? The Tigers would have more good wins having knocked off Alabama and Ole Miss.
Then there’s the one-loss teams. Texas and Texas A&M play each other and despite all the love for most the season, I think losing to the Aggies would definitely put Texas behind Tennessee. Its best win would likely be at Vanderbilt.
Games To Pay Attention To
Here’s a few games that are sneakily really important to Tennessee’s 10-2 resume. A lot of games here between one playoff contender and another solid team that’s not going to make the playoffs. I’ll bold the team that Tennessee should be rooting for
- 11/2 — Texas A&M @ South Carolina
- 11/2 — Ole Miss @ Arkansas
- 11/2 — Pitt @ SMU
- 11/9 — Clemson @ Virginia Tech
- 11/9 — Alabama @ LSU
- 11/16 — Clemson @ Pitt (Unless SMU is unbeaten)
- 11/16 — LSU @ Florida
- 11/16 — Texas @ Arkansas
- 11/23 — Penn State @ Minnesota
- 11/23 — Pitt @ Louisville
- 11/23 — Army vs Notre Dame
- 11/30 — Texas @ Texas A&M
- 11/30 — Notre Dame @ USC
- 11/30 — South Carolina @ Clemson
