Tennessee football returns to Knoxville on Saturday night for its SEC home opener against Florida. Following its loss at Arkansas last week, the Vols’ badly need to right the ship with a big rivalry victory.
Each week, Rocky Top Insider will take you behind the scenes with a question and answer with a media member who covers Tennessee’s opponent.
*Some answers have been slightly shortened or altered for clarity
What’s been different for Florida in its last two games compared to its first three?
“Certainly starts with the opponent. Mississippi State and UCF, even before the season we were looking at those two teams being the easier teams on the schedule and games that Florida had to win.
For the offense, there was such an offseason focus on trying to push the ball down the field in the passing game with Graham Mertz. I think we saw enough from the Miami game and it didn’t work. He comes back against Texas A&M and there wasn’t a whole lot of success throwing the ball down the field there either. The last couple of games we’ve gotten the 2023 version of Graham Mertz. He’s just playing conservative in a conservative offense. That means no turnovers but at the same time not pushing the ball down the field. Mertz has played within himself and in the offense a little bit more.
They inserted DJ Lagway and I think they’ve figured out the quarterback rotation a bit better. It fits both quarterbacks. It gets Graham Mertz comfortable and gives DJ Lagway some experience. It allows you to still hit some explosive passes with Lagway. They’ve settled down there and found some weapons at receiver with transfers Elijah Badger and Chimere Deke with Trey Wilson being out.”
Do the last two games make you feel differently about this team or Billy Napier’s chances of keeping his job?
“I don’t think so yet. That starts Saturday in Knoxville. Even before the season, you were marking off UCF and Mississippi State as wins. They got those wins. Don’t get me wrong, before those games it was ugly. They still had a lot to prove because the games versus Miami and Texas A&M weren’t close. There was a lot to prove even against Mississippi State because they had to go to Starkville and Billy Napier has been bad on the road. They get the win going into the bye week and I think they figured out some things on defense, but the true tests are still coming up. The Miami and A&M games still weigh heavy on Billy Napier’s future. Now it’s time for him to get a win people aren’t expecting him to get.”
How have they been splitting snaps at quarterback? How would you assess their performances?
“When Mertz came back against Texas A&M they were flipping every other drive. The change after the Texas A&M game was that Graham Mertz gets the first and second drive and DJ Lagway gets the third, sixth and ninth drives of the game. They’re really stuck to that. It doesn’t matter what the situation is or if it’s right before halftime with 40 seconds on the clock. Lagway, going back to the Mississippi State game, had two 90 yard drives. But they’re really sticking to that plan no matter the situation. I think that shows a lot of trust in their plan and in DJ Lagway where they’re not going to go away from the plan just because it may not be an ideal situation.
Mertz is really living in that seven-yard range overall and isn’t really pushing the ball down the field. It does seem like when Lagway comes in he’s looking for that explosive play. You can tell right away. He wants that first read. That downfield shot and not using his legs as well as he could. Some designed runs but you can tell the run game opens up when DJ Lagway comes in. You can tell defenses are backing off to take away deep passes and it’s opening up the rushing attack.”
Is the Florida run defense as bad as it looks? How has the defense performed as a whole?
“The run defense has been up until the UCF game. They just out talented UCF. They won a lot of battles up front. That was a lot of it. And they did play more aggressively and made some personnel changes on passing downs. There were a couple of third and fourth and longs where Florida had its four best pass rushers on the field. You could see the personnel groupings already changing from the bye week.
For the run defense, I think there was a lot of the mentality with Ron Roberts coming in as co-defensive coordinator— just filling gaps. Playing undermanned. Not enough numbers in the box and that’s not what we saw against UCF. They outmanned UCF numbers wise and they got up field. It wasn’t a lot of east-west movement. They got up field and got seven tackles for loss and got sacks in this game. Safeties came up and made plays near the line of scrimmage. Things we hadn’t seen all season long in what had been a conservative in approach from Ron Roberts. I think co-DC Austin Armstrong got more involved in the defense. I think you saw a lot of his fingerprints on this defense against UCF. I do think they figured some things out on defense. Just how much remains to be seen as the schedule gets tougher.”
What is a key or multiple keys for Florida to pull the upset on Saturday?
“To stop Tennessee’s run game. I think it is that simple. I know growing up and watching this rivalry game, there were so many years in a row where whoever won the rushing attack won the game. It may be that case this time. I still question how explosive Florida’s offense can be with Graham Mertz at quarterback. That conservative passing approach can work as long as the Florida run game is working. They’re not going to outscore a lot of teams with the conservative approach from Mertz. I think Florida’s run game is going to have to be key if Mertz is getting the majority of the snaps. I don’t expect him to go on the road and throw for 300-400 yards. That’s what it might take if the run game isn’t there. I don’t see Florida doing that so the run game needs to be there and I think the run defense is going to have to continue to progress and make it hard on the Tennessee run game and in turn on Nico to have a good performance.”
Score prediction?
Tennessee 30, Florida 17
