Tennessee football is off to a 4-0 (1-0 SEC) start to the 2024 season after winning its first three non-conference matchups and then its SEC opener against Oklahoma two weeks ago. After an open date, Tennessee heads back on the road in conference play Saturday night when they’ll face Arkansas in primetime.
Each week, the RTI team will provide game predictions for Tennessee’s matchup.
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Ric Butler
I’m going to keep this one short and sweet because the RTI train is leaving the station for Fayetteville sometime soon.
There are two specific reasons why I’m taking Tennessee in a confident manner. The first is Josh Heupel’s record off of an open date – 8-1 all-time, 3-0 at Tennessee. He just really doesn’t lose in that spot. When given extra time to prepare and figure out an opposing defense, Heupel has proven to be up there with anyone as some of the top gameplan crafters in the league. Well, now Josh Heupel has the nation’s top defense to go along with that well-crafted offensive game plan.
That’s a recipe for nightmares if you are the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Arkansas is led by their running back, Ja’Quinden Jackson, who I wouldn’t be surprised to see have a few nice runs in the game, maybe one or two where he runs through a Tennessee defender. Jackson is built, strong, and a good runner. But let’s talk about Taylen Green for a moment. Green is a transfer quarterback who sort of runs an “explosive but reckless” offensive unit for the Razorbacks. I do think there will be a few plays with Green and Bobby Petrino dial something up for an explosive play, maybe even a big touchdown through the air. But it’s also a reckless offense at times with turnovers and head-scratching decisions. Tennessee should be able to capitalize here, and if Tennessee wins the turnover battle 2-0 or better, I see a blowout.
Tennessee, though, is explosive and disciplined. I like those combinations of ingredients for a road game at night in the SEC. I look for Tennessee’s defense to stay strong, the Vols’ pass game to ramp up a bit, and the running game and defense to close down the contest.
Prediction: Tennessee 35, Arkansas 14
Jack Foster
Arkansas is a much better team than I anticipated coming into the season, making this game a bit more intriguing. Before the season, I would’ve picked Tennessee to win by five touchdowns. Now, I can’t do that. Let’s dive in a little bit on why this is a game to keep an eye on.
New Arkansas offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has created a dangerous unit led by quarterback Taylen Green and Ja’Quinden Jackson. The Hogs score a lot and rack up lots of yards. Given NC State and Oklahoma’s struggles offensively so far, Arkansas is probably the best offense Tennessee will have faced to date.
But while the Razorbacks’ offense is exciting, it’s far from perfect. Green is prone to make mistakes and take sacks, two things he cannot do against Tennessee if Arkansas has a chance to win. Expect Green to make some nice plays, maybe even a few explosives early on, but Tennessee’s defensive line will dominate once more and I would be surprised if the Vols don’t force at least one turnover.
Another strength of Arkansas’ offense is the running game with Jackson, who is third in the FBS in rushing TDs. But if there’s one matchup I am always going to side with Tennessee on, it’s the Vols’ rushing defense vs. the opposing rushing attack. As good as Tennessee is at applying pressure to opposing quarterbacks it is even better at stopping the run.
On the other side of the ball, this could be the game Nico Iamaleava and the Tennessee wide receivers have a breakout performance. The passing game has not gelled against a P4 team for four quarters yet this season. And while it might not in Fayetteville, I see Iamaleava having his best game and for there to be several chunk plays in the passing game. Tennessee’s running backs might not have the easiest day at the office given the Hogs are good at stopping the run, but by no means will Tennessee’s offense be forced to become one-dimensional.
Tennessee is a much better team, and this would 100% be a trap game for the Vols if they had the defense from two years ago. But, they don’t. And while this is a road game at night, I don’t see a way Tennessee loses. Add in Josh Heupel’s 8-1 record coming off a bye into the equation, and there’s little reason to think Arkansas can pull off the upset.
Vols flex their muscle in Hog country and walk out with a second consecutive conference road win, improving to 5-0 (and 5-0 ATS).
Prediction: Tennessee 42, Arkansas 17
Ryan Schumpert
Tennessee football heads to Fayetteville for its last road game in 42 days. The Vols have four straight home SEC games including an open date following the Arkansas game before they head to Athens to face Georgia.
Expectations were low for Arkansas entering the season and their 3-2 record entering the Tennessee game isn’t very surprising on the surface. But the Razorbacks massively outplayed Oklahoma State in a loss in Stillwater and easily could have defeated Texas A&M in Dallas. So while Arkansas isn’t great, they have outperformed my preseason expectations.
Led by start running back Ja’Quinden Jackson, Arkansas has a strong running offense. That’s one of the matchups I’m most interested to see. Tennessee’s run defense has suffocated every opponent that they’ve played this season, but NC State and Oklahoma were all putrid up front. I don’t think Arkansas will be able to run the ball a ton on Tennessee but they should have more success than anyone else has. If Tennessee completely shuts down the Arkansas rushing attack then I’ll start viewing them in a light similarly to some of those elite Georgia run defenses of a few years ago.
The other area Arkansas has been really good is run defense which is very similar to Oklahoma. And that leads me to the other area that I’m excited about for this game. I think this is the game that Tennessee is more aggressive offensively and starts to push the ball through the air more. Arkansas pass defense has been susceptible, especially to big plays, this season and with both of Tennessee’s offense tackles back this feels like the game to do so.
Combine that with Tennessee coming off the open date, Josh Heupel’s success in those spots in his career and Arkansas playing its sixth straight game before next week’s open date and I think Tennessee not only wins but earns a comfortable win.
Prediction: Tennessee 38, Arkansas 20
