The Opponent: The University of Arkansas was founded in 1871 as Arkansas Industrial University. The school has over 30,000 total students and serves as the flagship program of the state-wide system. Arkansas started playing football in 1894 and competed in the historic Southwest Conference for most of the 20th century. The Razorbacks claimed the 1964 National Title under legendary coach Frank Broyles. Tennessee is 13-6 all-time versus Arkansas but has lost three straight to the Hogs. Tennessee last won in Fayetteville in 2001. Arkansas is coached by former Tennessee offensive line coach, Sam Pittman. In his fifth season in Fayetteville, Pittman is 26-27 overall and 12-24 in the SEC.
Are they any good?: Yes, Arkansas is a good team. We are finding out that there are not many bad teams in the SEC this season. This is a high-variance Arkansas team, with both a high ceiling and a low floor. The Prodigal Son, Bobby Petrino, has breathed life into an offense that had become rather stale under Dan Enos. Alongside quarterback Taylen Green, Petrino has made this a dangerous and balanced attack for the Hogs. Defensively, Arkansas is giving up yardage but not many points. The great equalizer is turnovers. Arkansas is tied with Tennessee with seven takeaways on the season. Tennessee will be the best offense Arkansas has faced on the season. Arkansas will likely be the best offense Tennessee has faced on the season. The Hogs sit at 3-2 for the year. Six wins would likely be a bare minimum to save Sam Pittman’s job. With games remaining against LSU, Ole Miss, Texas, and Missouri, Arkansas likely needs to pull off an upset somewhere to make this season a success.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: This game will tell us a lot more about Tennessee’s defense. The Volunteers’ defensive stats are other-worldly through September. Tennessee has the top-scoring defense in the SEC at 7.0 ppg. The Vols are giving up less than 180 yards per game and under just 50 ypg rushing. Opponents are only converting 17% of their third downs on Tennessee. It is all too good to be true. The reality is Tennessee has not played a good offense to this point in the season. Yes, we can comfortably say Tennessee has a good defense. Is it truly elite though? How they play against Taylen Green and this Arkansas attack will offer more insight into that question.
What does Vegas say?: This line has consistently stayed around -13.5 all week. The game total is between 58 and 59 points. Arkansas is 4-1 ATS this season, including 3-0 ATS as underdogs. Tennessee is 4-0 ATS on the season. Las Vegas sees this game as around 35-22 Tennessee – or something to that effect. Tennessee has eclipsed 30 points just once in its last five SEC road games. Arkansas has scored over 30 just twice in its last ten conference games.
Matchup to watch on Offense: How well does Tennessee protect Nico Iamaleava on Saturday night? The main concern leaving Oklahoma was clearly the play of Tennessee’s offensive tackles, and protecting its quarterback. After watching two strip-sacks, Josh Heupel had clearly seen enough. The Vols went ultra-conservative offensively and were able to ride a smothering defense to a conference road win. Is that a sustainable game plan? I am skeptical. It is likely Tennessee will need to score 30+ to win a game this season, maybe even Saturday night. The return of Lance Heard will help. The LSU transfer has had two weeks to rest a sore ankle. The assumption is he will be a full participant Saturday night. John Campbell may just be playing on a pitch count this season, so expect to see Dayne Davis and/or Larry Johnson regularly this fall. Regardless of the personnel, this Tennessee offense is limited if it can’t give Nico time to let routes develop downfield. This is an Arkansas secondary that has given up its share of chunk passing plays this season. That includes four of 50+ yards. Outside of one big strike to Dont’e Thornton, the Vols were limited in the downfield game against the Sooners. Nico has shown a nice touch on the deep ball. This is also a good game to work the tight ends and slot in the middle of the field. It all starts with protection though. Tennessee has to do a better job of protecting its quarterback Saturday night. LSU transfer Landon Jackson is an All-Conference pass rusher for the Razorbacks. At linebacker, Georgia transfer Xavian Sorey Jr has had a nice start to the season as well. Sorey has made multiple plays in the backfield through September. Arkansas knows it has to make plays on Nico Iamaleava to win this game. If the Vols can keep Nico clean and turnover-free, then it is hard to see Tennessee losing this game.
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Matchup to watch on Defense: Make Taylen Green a pocket passer, and show discipline when he breaks the pocket. Green can make plays with his legs. Tennessee can live with the QB getting 50-60 yards rushing if need be. He is most dangerous as a passer when the pocket breaks down though. Green keeps his eyes downfield, and tries to make plays. Taylen Green has been very inaccurate at times this season though. He has as many interceptions as touchdowns and is completing just 52% of his passes in conference play. Arkansas has allowed 12 sacks on the season. The reality is that number would be much higher if not for the athletic ability of Taylen Green. The Hogs have really struggled with pressure off the edge. Their rate of pressure allowed is one of the worst in FBS. Texas A&M had two strip-sacks of Taylen Green last Saturday. Still, it is not enough to just pressure Green. He is used to that pressure. Tennessee has to keep contain on Green and get him on the ground whenever possible. More importantly, the Volunteer secondary can not get caught peaking into the backfield when Green starts to improvise. Tennessee’s secondary was the talk, if not the worry, of fall camp. Thus far, the Volunteers have looked solid in the defensive backfield. How much have they been tested though? It is easy to have defensive busts with a quarterback like Taylen Green. Defenders in pass coverage have to stick with their assignment until Green breaks the line of scrimmage. Every good upset starts with a few crazy bust plays. The Volunteers need to be guarded against those on Saturday night.
Fun Fact: There are no shortage of Arkansas alums worth highlighting; the Waltons, the Tyson family, Jerry Jones, or Pat Summerall. It is political season though, so let’s get political. As wild and whacky as the American presidential election may get, we can never be Panama. The ballad of Ricardo Martinelli is way too long for this simple column. I would encourage you to read up on the former Panamanian president, and proud Arkansas alum though. Martinelli made billions as part of his business empire, before parlaying that success into the presidency in 2009. He served into 2014, and was considered a very successful president for Panama. Legal troubles have chased Martinelli ever since leaving office though. At one point he was fighting extradition from a Miami mansion. In 2023, he was convicted to 10 years in prison for money laundering. In spite of his conviction, Martinelli continued his campaign for reelection into his old office. He also sought emergency asylum from the country of Nicaragua. Martinelli has been living inside the Nicaraguan embassy in Panama City for months now. The Supreme Court of Panama finally ruled Martinelli ineligible to run for president, due to his criminal conviction. However, his running mate, José Raúl Mulino, was able to step in and win the election anyway. Martinelli’s influence still lays heavy over Panama, even as he remains isolated in the embassy. Wonder if he’ll be able to watch the game Saturday night?
So what Happens?: Saturday will be Tennessee’s last road game until a November 16th trip to Athens. SEC road games are never easy, and Saturday should be no exception. Tennessee is going to get everyone’s best shot this season, especially when it is a prime-time ABC game. Arkansas is a tough team to predict. There is a world where Arkansas is 5-0 entering this game. Most of that unpredictability has to do with their quarterback play, which we have already touched on. Arkansas has been solid running the ball this season though. Ja’Quinden Jackson leads the SEC in rushing with 509 yards, and an impressive 6.4 yards per carry. Jackson is a physical back but also has a nice explosive gear. His production has really fallen off in Arkansas’ two SEC games though, just 3.5 yards per carry. I don’t expect him to find much more success against a Tennessee defense giving up only 50 yards rushing per game. Bobby Petrino will have a nice script to start the game. That will include some read-option plays with Taylen Green. I expect Arkansas to have less and less success running the ball as the game goes along though. The depth of Tennessee’s defensive line will continue to pay dividends in this game. Look for an impactful game from both Keenan Pili and Arion Carter.
I will stop short of calling it a breakout game, but I expect Nico Iamaleava to show up big time against Arkansas. The Vols will still let the run game power this offense, especially in the second half, but I expect Nico to find open targets downfield in this game. I think Tennessee goes at Doneiko Slaughter early on, and makes him show he can cover speed out of the slot. You will continue to see plenty of “12” personnel from the Vols as well. That extra tight end can help solidify pass protection, but I predict over 100 yards combined receiving from the tight end position Saturday night. The Hogs gave up over 10 yards per completion against UAB. Neither Auburn nor Texas A&M really had the passing game to challenge this Arkansas secondary. Tennessee will do so. While Arkansas has been statistically strong against the run this season, Texas A&M was able to wear them down in the second half last week. Auburn also averaged over 5 ypc against this defense. Expect Tennessee to do the same. If the Vols can get a lead, then expect Green to start pressing. As noted earlier, Taylen Green has been feast of famine thus far this season. You will see both on Saturday night. College football creates chaos better than any sport, and Fayetteville could provide the perfect setting for some Saturday night. Tennessee is rested coming off a bye week though. The Vols will have shored up their pass protection enough. Tennessee’s defensive front against Arkansas’ offensive line is too big of a mismatch to ignore. Josh Heupel’s team keeps rolling. Vols 38, Razorbacks 24
