NFL Week 4 is here and so are three more NFL underdog picks against the point spread with quick thoughts on each matchup.
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NFL ’dogs have shown some real bite so far, posting a 24-21-2 ATS record.
But I’ve been unable to take full advantage here in this corner with an 3-5-1 ATS mark, including a 1-2 Week 3.
Best NFL bets Week 4 underdogs: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2 Caesars) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Bucs are coming off a disappointing home showing in a 26-7 loss to the previously winless Denver Broncos.
The Eagles, meanwhile, are fresh off a 15-12 upset road win over the previously unbeaten New Orleans Saints.
That sets up well situationally for Baker Mayfield and Co. who quietly have won eight of their last 11 games overall, dating back to Week 13 of last season.
Philly, meanwhile, is 3-7 over that same span, including a 32-9 wild-card playoff loss to the host Bucs last January.
Tampa has been hurting with cluster injuries in the defensive secondary, but the Eagles aren’t in good shape to take advantage with starting wide receivers A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) on track to miss Sunday’s game.
Best NFL bets Week 4 underdogs: Washington Commanders (+4 BetMGM) at Arizona Cardinals
The Commanders and Cardinals are far down the list of current household NFL brands, but Sunday afternoon’s matchup in the desert has the makings of an under-the-radar barn-burner.
Both teams feature exciting, dual-threat quarterbacks in Kyler Murray and rookie Jayden Daniels piloting top-five scoring offenses. Those high-scoring units are paired with suspect defenses.
Sunday also presents a strange situation for Arizona which enters a game as the point spread favorite for the first time since Week 9 of the 2022 season. In all, the Cards are only 9-16 ATS as a favorite since the start of the Murray Era in 2019.
That’s not a good sign with the hosts laying more than a field goal against the sizzling Commanders who have not punted or turned the ball over on offense since Week 1.
Best NFL bets Week 4 underdogs: Seattle Seahawks (+3.5 FanDuel) at Detroit Lions
The second of two Monday night games pits the 3-0 Seahawks against the 2-1 Lions.
In beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins, Seattle hasn’t faced the toughest of schedules to date.
Nevertheless, the Seahawks’ defense (fourth-fewest points and second-fewest yards allowed) has looked stout under new head coach Mike Macdonald while Geno Smith (ninth-best QBR) and the offense have been solid.
Detroit, meanwhile, is off to a decent 2-1 start, but the defense has been middling (13th in expected pointsadded) and QB Jared Goff has struggled (26th-best QBR with three TD passes and four interceptions so far).
Detroit is a league-best 28-12 ATS since 2022, but two of those setbacks came at home against these Seahawks, who notched 48-45 (2002) and 37-31 (2023) shootout victories in the Motor City as a field goal-plus underdog.
