Tennessee’s win over No. 15 Oklahoma on Saturday night in Norman has elevated the Vols’ playoff chances according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The Vols went into Oklahoma Memorial Stadium and put away the off-the-field noise to win on the road 25-15. Tennessee’s defense continued to make headlines as the Vols forced Oklahoma into benching five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold before halftime to try to give a spark to the Sooners’ offense. The Vols’ defense was relentless as they swarmed to the ball and kept things tough in the trenches, a recipe that has proved successful for Tennessee through the first four games.
Going into the season, Tennessee had three big Top 15 matchups that their playoff chances would likely revolve around: Oklahoma, Alabama, and Georgia. While the Alabama and Georgia games are still down the road, Tennesseee got off on the right foot with a win over the Sooners.
Tennessee now has the third-highest playoff chances according to ESPN’s Football Power Index at 80.6 percent, only trailing Texas’s 93.0 percent and Alabama’s 83.2 percent. The Vols win over Oklahoma jumped Tennessee over Ohio State (79.1 percent) and Georgia (70.7 percent).
Ohio State has a higher percentage to make and win the National Championship compared to Tennessee but Georgia does not. Tennessee is given a 17.8 percent chance to make the National Championship game and a 9.2 percent chance to win it.
Note: The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. -ESPN
More from RTI: Tennessee Football Set For Another Night Game In Road Trip At Arkansas
Tennessee’s playoff chances have skyrocketed since the start of the season.
ESPN’s FPI first had Tennessee with a 36.9 percent chance to make the playoffs in the preseason, which was the ninth-highest in the nation. After Tennessee’s 2-0 start including a win over No. 24 NC State, though, the Vols’ chances got bumped all the way up to 65.3 percent to make the playoffs and a 6.8 percent chance to win the championship, up from 2.7 percent previously.
ESPN’s FPI system also provides a useful simulation tool for projecting a team’s destiny based on the early-season numbers.
If Tennessee wins out but loses to both Alabama and Georgia, FPI still has Tennessee with a 91 percent chance to make the playoffs as the 10-seed with a 10-2 record. The FPI also projects that if the Vols split Alabama and Georgia while winning the rest, Tennessee would still have a 99 percent chance to make the expanded college football playoffs regardless of winning, losing, or not playing in the SEC Championship. Obviously, though, winning the SEC Championship would give the Vols a bye in the first round as a conference champion.
It’s hard to overvalue just how impactful Tennessee’s Week 4 win over Oklahoma was to their playoff chances, according to the data, projections, and simulations.
Tennessee looks to be on the path to handle the rest of their season opponents but this is the wild world of college football where chaos resides without rent. College GameDay host Kirk Herbstreit provided some advice for the Vols after the win on Sunday, which will be vital to continue success coming out of this week’s open date:
“If [Tennessee Football] can keep their ‘edge’ and can stay healthy they are very real,” Herbstreit posted to X on Sunday. “I’ve called 2 of their games this year – really like this teams potential. Hope they keep playing angry with something to prove. Don’t listen to the compliments – keep your edge!”
The Vols will use the open date to recover and reset this weekend before traveling to face Arkansas in another road SEC night game.
