We are on to Week 3 with three more NFL underdog against the point spread picks, accompanied by some quick thoughts on each matchup.
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After a 2-1 showing in Week 2 with covers by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago (barely) Bears, my underdog ATS record sits at 2-3-1 on the season.
Best NFL bets Week 3 underdogs: Philadelphia Eagles (+3 Caesars) at New Orleans Saints
Quarterback Derek Carr, running back Alvin Kamara and the Saints are flying high at 2-0, having scored 22 more points than any other team in the league so far while posting a league-best plus-62 point differential.
The Eagles, meanwhile, should be 2-0 as well, but just about everything that could go wrong did go wrong in the final 2 minutes Monday night as Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons scored a late touchdown to steal a 22-21 road win in Philly.
Despite the Saints’ gaudy early-season numbers, Philly still possesses the talent edge, particularly in the trenches.
And I see a focused Eagles squad taking advantage of that advantage to not only cover Sunday but hand the Saints their first setback of the new season.
Best NFL bets Week 3 underdogs: Miami Dolphins (+5 BetMGM) at Seattle Seahawks
Yes, we know it’s the 1-1 Dolphins flying cross country with backup QB Skylar Thompson making his fourth career start against the 2-0 Seahawks in one of the league’s loudest environs.
And the general public certainly isn’t going be in any rush to bet on a Miami squad which suffered a 31-10 nationally-televised home beatdown in its last game, losing starting QB Tua Tagovailoa to a concussion in the process.
But much like the game write-up above, I’m giving the overall talent edge to the visitors. I also feel the QB-change line adjustment for Miami has been a touch too much.
And while the Seahawks certainly have won more than not of late in the Pacific Northwest — 25-18 since the start of the 2019 season — covering the spread has proven more problematic as they’re sub-.500 ATS (19-23-1) at home during that span.
I’m still picking Seattle to win and move to 3-0 Sunday, but I’m banking on Thompson and Co. to keep things close and get the cover.
Best NFL bets Week 3 underdogs: Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5 BetMGM) at Buffalo Bills
These teams are off to disparate starts with Jacksonville 0-2 and Buffalo 2-0.
But the Josh Hines-Allen Jags have had the Josh Allen Bills’ number in recent seasons, winning 25-20 last season in Great Britain and 9-6 at home in 2021.
In both games, the Jaguars were underdogs of at least five points as they are in this Monday night matchup.
If they can protect Trevor Lawrence, the Jags have the offensive weapons — including ex-Bills wideout Gabe Davis — to do some damage against a depleted Buffalo defense and keep things too close for comfort for the rabid Bills Mafia.
To that point, the Bills have won 16 of 20 home games since the start of the 2022 season but are only 8-12 ATS in those contests.
