The Opponent: North Carolina State University was established as North Carolina A&M in 1887. It is currently the largest university in the state of North Carolina with over 37,000 total students. The school has fielded a football team since 1892 and was a founding member of the Atlantic Coast Conference in 1953. NC State has won seven conference titles as a member of the ACC, but none since 1979. The Wolfpack are currently coached by Dave Doeren, beginning his twelfth season in Raleigh. Doeren was the flavor of the day at one point during Tennessee’s epic 2018 coaching search. He was one of the last candidates in conversation with John Currie, before Currie was relieved from his duties as athletic director.
Are they any Good?: Yes, NC State is a good football team. They have won eight or more games for four straight seasons, and are currently ranked 24th in the AP poll. The Wolfpack currently have the fourth-best odds to win the ACC. NC State has been a good football team for several seasons now. They are trying to make a leap to become a great football team though. This is a team whose defense has consistently ranked at the top of the ACC, but whose offense has always seemed to be lagging behind. NC State decided to address that deficiency in the transfer portal, by bringing in several high-profile starters on the offensive side of the ball. This group includes Grayson McCall (QB, Coastal Carolina), Noah Rogers (WR, Ohio State), Justin Joly (TE, UConn), Jordan Waters (RB, Duke), and Zeke Correll (C, Notre Dame). How quickly that group can gel into a cohesive unit is the key question facing NC State at the moment.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: This game will tell us a lot about Tennessee. It is hard to imagine the Vols losing this game, and still making the college football playoffs. It would not be impossible, but probably means Tennessee would need to go 7-1 in SEC play or somehow win the conference championship. I expect this game to tell us a lot more about the Vols along both lines of scrimmage. We know Tennessee has a lot of experience along both its offensive and defensive lines. Can they control a game against a Top 25 opponent though? Tennessee fans have to feel good about the future of Nico Iamaleava after his first two starts. Typically there is some learning curve for young quarterbacks though. Saturday night should also tell us how steep that curve may be for Nico. NC State will not be the toughest defense he faces this season, but it will be a big step up from UTC. Saturday night will tell us more about Nico, and this Tennessee team as a whole.
What does Vegas say?: This line was available most of the summer at Tennessee -5.5, a number which shifted to -4.5 at some point in August. The opening weekend results clearly shifted the line more in Tennessee’s favor, as it now sits at -8.5 or -9. NC State was 7-6 overall last season ATS, and 0-2 ATS in games versus ranked opponents. The Over/Under sits anywhere from 60.5 to 61.5 depending on where you partake. Tennessee has been heavily bet throughout this week.
More from RTI: Tennessee Transfer Tight End Holden Staes Dominated NC State With Two Touchdowns Last Season
Matchup to watch on Offense: How effective can Tennessee be with its ground game? In its nine wins last season, North Carolina State allowed under 100 yards per game rushing. In its four losses, that number was just over 160. In Tennessee’s nine wins last season, the Vols rushed for over 246 yards per game. In its four losses, that number dwindled to 111. The Pack are replacing 2023 Butkis Award winner Payton Wilson. Wilson was a tackling machine for NC State in 2023. Converted safety Sean Brown is starting in Wilson’s place this year, after being a starter at free safety last season. Brown is a versatile defender, but I would expect Tennessee to test the slightly undersized Brown often. It is going to be interesting to see how the Wolfpack defends Tennessee’s offense as a whole. Specifically, do they play with a lighter box out of respect for the passing game? The Volunteers want to make you pick your poison. If you commit the bodies to stopping the ground game, can your secondary play on an island with Vol receivers? If you want help with safeties over the top, can Tennessee gash you on the ground? It will be very interesting to see how much Nico Iamaleava runs on Saturday night. NC State allowed 75 yards on just six carries to Western Carolina’s quarterback last week. If Tennessee can get its ground game moving, then NC State needs to be prepared to win in a shootout versus the Vols.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Tennessee’s remade secondary versus North Carolina State’s talented pass catchers. This is the obvious area of concern for Tennessee. It could be considered a strength versus weakness matchup in favor of the Pack. The Wolfpack are in their second season under offensive coordinator Robert Anae. Anae was brought in to modernize an NC State offense that felt stagnant at the end of the 2022 season. His first-year results were mostly disappointing. Modest improvements were made, but not the leap that some had hoped for. After revamping its offensive staff during one off-season, the Pack revamped their offensive personnel this past off-season. After passing for over 10,000 career yards at Coastal Carolina, sixth-year QB Grayson McCall was brought to Raleigh to lead this offense. Noah Rogers (Ohio State) and Justin Joly (UConn) were brought in as pass catchers. Still, it is returning Wolfpack wide receiver KC Concepcion who serves as the most dangerous weapon on this team. Concepcion was a real bright spot as a true freshman in 2023 and caught nine passes for 121 yards in his season opener last week. Concepcion works mostly out of the slot. He is a smaller receiver, but has the right combination of speed, quickness, and strength after the catch. Tim Banks’ defense has historically played opposing receivers straight up, meaning Concepcion will not line up against the Volunteers’ starting corners too often. It will be a spotlight game for guys like Christian Harrison, Boo Carter, Will Brooks, and Andre Turrentine. They won’t just be responsible for Concepcion. They also will have to keep up with Justin Joly. Joly had 8 receptions for 89 yards against Tennessee last season. I expect Tennessee to focus on keeping these receivers in front of them. That has been commonplace with Tim Banks’ defense. NC State will be comfortable taking short and intermediate throws, at least to start the game. At some point, does the Pack feel the need to stretch the field though? At some point, will Tennessee have to tighten up coverage if the Vols are giving up too many easy completions? This will be the matchup to key on for a Volunteer defense that allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65% of their passes last season.
Fun Fact: The late Monte Kiffin spent over 55 years coaching between college football and the NFL. NC State was the only place he ever served as the head coach though. The elder Kiffin led the Wolfpack from 1980 – 1982, compiling a mediocre 16-17 overall record. Kiffin was hired by NC State after a successful stint as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas. It is in Fayetteville where he met the young man who he would hire as his own defensive coordinator for the Wolfpack. Pete Carroll was not even 30 years old when Kiffin brought him along to Raleigh. Years later, Carroll would return the favor by hiring a very young Lane Kiffin as his tight ends coach at USC.
So What Happens?: The amount of optimism, and public betting money, pouring into Tennessee worries me some. We tell ourselves not to get too worked up over Week 1 games versus FCS opponents, but that is easier said than done. If Tennessee can play with its preferred offensive tempo, then I think the Vols can wear out this Wolfpack defense. NC State played 19 defenders in its opener versus Western Carolina according to Pro Football Focus. To contrast that, Tennessee played 46. That number includes upwards to 30 defenders in the first half alone. Yes, NC State has had a really nice secondary over the past few seasons. They are down a starting safety in Devan Boykin for Saturday night, and the Vols have a lot of weapons to throw at them. After just a half of football against UTC, the Nico Hype Train predictably raced out of the station. Iamaleava’s record-setting half caught the attention of fans and pundits alike across college football. It is unrealistic to expect Nico to look that good against a much better defense. He will not have to be though. Nico will be good enough to keep this offense on schedule and find a few big plays. I highlighted the matchup earlier, but I think Tennessee will have success on the ground Saturday night. That will make life much easier for Nico. I also touched on Tennessee’s secondary earlier. They have their work cut out for them with a talented group of receivers. I left out a key ingredient though; the Volunteer pass rush. NC State’s offensive line was thought to be a strength of this team. For a group with four returning starters, they struggled against Western Carolina. The Pack allowed nine tackles for loss against the Catamounts. They now go up against a Tennessee defense that led the SEC in TFLs for last season. It is a Tennessee defensive front that will flex its depth on Saturday night. I expect the Wolfpack will try to get the ball out of McCall’s hands quickly. It fits more into his style of play; an accurate veteran without a super strong arm. At some point, he is going to have to hold onto the ball for more than a few seconds though. That is where I see Tennessee’s line causing problems. That will especially be true if the Volunteers can limit NC State’s ground game. That is what I expect to happen. The Pack will pop a decent run or two, but won’t be able to consistently run against Tennessee. That is going to force them out of the shorter throws, and into dangerous territory at times. The Volunteer defense will surrender some points, but also produce a few big plays. Tennessee will do enough to control both lines of scrimmage, and that will be the difference in this one. NC State is 1-9 in its last ten games versus the SEC. They are 6-22 against ranked opponents under Dave Doeren. Both trends continue on Saturday. Tennessee 38, North Carolina State 27
