The dawn of a new season is almost here as Tennessee football begins its 2024 campaign on Saturday afternoon against Chattanooga at Neyland Stadium.
After taking a step back with a 9-4 (4-4 SEC) record in its third season under Josh Heupel, Tennessee is looking to get back to where it was in its resurgent 2022 season. There’s plenty of reasons for optimism including highly touted quarterback Nico Iamaleava and veteran play on both lines of scrimmage.
Tennessee’s schedule has a handful of challenging matchups but also pits them against three teams expected to finish at the very bottom of the SEC. The Vols regular season over/under win total has bounced back and forth from 8.5 to 9.5 this season but currently sits at 8.5 with much worse odds if you want to bet the over.
Here’s what the RTI staff thinks we see from Tennessee football in the regular season.
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Ric Butler
I’m picking 9-3 but don’t jump ahead just yet. I’m giving you the answer right off the bat, that’s got to count for something, right? Here’s why:
I’m extremely bullish on this Tennessee team. I like a lot of what’s happening here with the roster. Nico Iamaleava steps up to the starting quarterback position with a few new weapons to work with, including transfer WR Chris Brazzell and the emergence of new running backs such as Cam Seldon and DeSean Bishop. There’s reason to believe Tennessee will get back up to one of the fastest-moving offenses in the country under Iamaleava. Tennessee’s pace slowed down a bit going from Hendon Hooker to Joe Milton, but all signs suggest that Iamaleava has the ability to pick that tempo right back up. Despite a question mark or two around development, I love the veteran presence on Tennessee’s offense line with Mays, Spraggins, and Campbell. Health will be key for that unit, but again, I factor them in highly when projecting Tennessee’s tempo.
The Vols’ defensive line is, well – does “stout” even do it justice? What’s the word for a team that has a plethora of guys at one position that can rotate in and out without too much dropoff throughout four quarters? Let’s just go with stout. It’s a well-built, strong, deep defensive line. AND it projects a Top 5 NFL Draft pick in James Pearce Jr. Tennessee DC Tim Banks believes in bringing pressure on the opposing quarterback and that’s what Tennessee has – guys who can create pressure. I’m not sure what the rotation will look like but it’s clear that Tennessee has a handful of guys that can get off the line. That also helps what I believe will be Tennessee’s biggest question mark on the defense, the safety positions. With the addition of Jermod McCoy and the projected play of Rickey Gibson III, I like what Tennessee is doing with their starting corners. McCoy could make moves this season, especially. But Jourdan Thomas’s season-ending injury did leave a position to be filled at STAR. It looks like Tennessee will start Christian Harrison, Will Brooks, and Andre Turrentine at the safety spots this season, but look for a player like Boo Carter to potentially make some noise, too.
So with all this positivity, why 9-3? The schedule gives Tennessee some big breaks with SEC opponents of Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State. But on the flip side, though, Tennessee has to play Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma, with two of those games on the road. The Sooners return eight players on the Brent Venables-led defense, which I think is going to be the calling card for OU. While I think Tennessee is better than OU, the high-profile game in Norman is going to be a tough environment. I see Tennessee dropping that game early in the season. I also see Tennessee losing to Georgia on the road. Alabama… Alabama is tough. I believe that Alabama still has a great roster but the game is in Knoxville. I can’t say “I’ll pick it when I see it” either, considering I was on the goal line for Chase McGrath’s kick. Besides the fact that Alabama still has a solid roster, I can’t give an exact statistic of why I’m projecting Alabama in the preseason, it’s just a gut feeling.
I’m picking 9-3, Ryan, but I do want to acknowledge that 10-2 is on the table because of the Alabama game being in Knoxville. Heck, this is a 10-2 team with good quarterback play and an offense that returns to form from the 2022 season. Nine wins is my pick, right on the outside of the playoffs looking in, but I’ll happily admit where I was wrong come December – if that’s the case.
Prediction: 9-3
Jack Foster
It all comes down to the quarterback. We’ve seen what a Josh Heupel offense is capable of with elite quarterback play. It’s the best offense in the country. And the Vols are capable of rekindling that 2022 magic on offense with Nico Iamaleava at the helm.
Sure, he’s only played one game so far, and it’s not like he set the world on fire in that game. But he did show that he can comfortably run the Heupel offense and bring fast tempo back to the offense that UT fans came to know and love in 2021 and 2022. I’m buying into the Nico hype. I was hesitant at first to anoint him as the next legendary Tennessee quarterback, but after seeing how comfortable he looked against Iowa in a mistake-free shutout win, and after seeing his leadership qualities on display this offseason in countless press conferences and practices, I’m bought in.
Nico leads a top-five offense this year, and if a wide receiver emerges as an All-SEC caliber player, this could be the top offense in the sport.
But what about the defense? It’s largely been what’s held Tennessee back in the Heupel era, specifically the secondary. There’s question marks in the back end no doubt, but I love the upside of the cornerback spot with sophomore Rickey Gibson II and Oregon State transfer Jermod McCoy. I’m of the belief that the overwhelming amount of turnover in the secondary is a good thing. Clean slate. New players. With McCoy and Gibson at corner, and Andre Turrentine occupying one safety spot, I feel good about Tennessee’s secondary having its best season of the Heupel era.
Lastly, Tennessee will dominate this season in the trenches as long as the offensive line stays healthy. Defensive line is Tennessee’s best strength, and the experienced offensive line will be among the best in the SEC, but it must stay healthy, which given Cooper Mays and John Campbell’s track record, is far from a certainty.
The personnel is well above-average and the schedule is gettable. If Nico is the real deal, this is a playoff team. 9-3 is the floor, and I’m picking them to win one more.
Prediction: 10-2
Ryan Schumpert
Tennessee enters this new era of college football with plenty to be optimistic about. The Vols come in at No. 15 in the Preseason AP Poll with just two teams on the schedule ranked ahead of them and two more teams on the schedule ranked behind them.
There’s plenty of questions about Tennessee’s roster but the biggest is about starting quarterback Nico Iameleava. The former top five recruit is the man in Knoxville and what level he plays at in his first season as the full-time starting quarterback is the most important question for the 2024 Vols.
The defensive backfield projects to be Tennessee’s biggest weakness this season after the Vols lost all five starters from last season. There’s young talent at cornerback with Rickey Gibson and Jermod McCoy but depth across the secondary is cause for concern as is the safety spot as a whole.
Josh Heupel’s fourth team plays an interesting schedule. It’s hard to say any schedule that includes Alabama, Georgia and a trip to Oklahoma is favorable, but the Vols played five teams predicted to finish in the bottom six of the league. The trip to Athens looks like a certain loss but if Tennessee can take care of business against Florida and North Carolina State while splitting Alabama and Oklahoma they can very seriously make the playoffs.
Despite what the folks in the desert say, I believe this is a borderline 9-3 and 10-2 team. My prediction is that Nico Iamaleava is going to be good and Tennessee’s offense is going to be much better than a season ago. That doesn’t mean I think they’ll be the top offense in the country like 2022 but I anticipate them being in or near the top 10.
If Iamaleava performs well, the strengths of Tennessee’s team could very well be its defensive line, quarterback and offensive line. Those are the spots that you want to be good at. Because of that, I’ll say Tennessee returns to 10-2 and makes a strong case to make the College Football Playoff.
Prediction: 10-2
