Recent NFL history dictates that it’s not a question of if a last-place NFL division finisher from the 2023 season will soar all the way to the top in 2024.
Rather, it’s a question of which one(s) will become the latest worst-to-first success story.
Below we break down the NFL worst-to-first trends, facts and stats over the last two decades. That’s followed by a ranking of which of the eight basement-dwelling division finishers from last season we believe has the best shot of ascending to the penthouse.
Accompanying each team are their best-value division-title odds from the leading online sportsbooks, which currently are offering up to a combined $4,450 in new customer welcome bonuses (see below).
NFL worst-to-first facts and stats: 25 teams have accomplished feat over last 21 seasons
In 2002, the NFL realigned into eight, four-team divisions.
So, starting with the 2003 season, here’s a glance at the worst-to-first numbers from the last 21 seasons:
- A total of 25 last-place teams have gone on to win their respective division titles the ensuing season.
- There has been at least one worst-to-first journey in 19 of those 21 seasons, with 2014 and 2019 serving as the only exemptions.
- Each of the eight divisions, aside from the NFC West, has had at least one worst-to-first ascender during that span, with the NFC East and NFC South leading the way with seven and six such instances, respectively.
- Among the individual teams, Washington and the Philadelphia Eagles lead the way with a trio of last-to-first leaps apiece.
- The 10 most recent teams ascending from fourth place to first in successive seasons — beginning with Washington in 2015 to last season’s Houston Texans — have seen a year-to-year average win total increase of 6.4 victories.
So assuming the 2024-25 NFL season will follow the rule — and not the exception — the question is, who’s next?
Following, we examine the eight last-place division finishers from 2023 — the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Washington Commanders — and rank their 2024-25 division title chances from, appropriately, worst to best.
Ranking the 2024 NFL worst-to-first candidates: New England Patriots (best-value division title odds: +2800)
2023 finish: 4-13 — 7 games behind the first-place Buffalo Bills (11-6) in the AFC East
Last AFC East title: 2019
2024 outlook: The post-Tom Brady Era has been rough for the Pats, who have one winning season/playoff appearance since the GOAT departed for Tampa after the 2019 campaign.
And things don’t figure to get better anytime soon with the legendary Bill Belichick now replaced by rookie coach Jerod Mayo and another transition at quarterback with the 2024 combo of veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett and raw rookie Drake Maye.
Meanwhile, the division competition boasts experienced/decorated QBs in Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa, and New England’s 2024 schedule ranks as the league’s second-toughest on the basis of their opponents’ combined preseason sportsbook win totals.
Ranking the 2024 NFL worst-to-first candidates: Carolina Panthers (best-value division title odds: +1100)
2023 finish: NFL-worst 2-15 — 7 games behind the first-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) in the NFC South
Last NFC South title: 2015
2024 outlook: Carolina resides in what’s still arguably the league’s least formidable division but also is picking up the pieces from one of the worst seasons in franchise history.
The Panthers will be trying to get 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Bryce Young up to NFL speed after a brutal 11-touchdown, 10-interception rookie season in which the Panthers finished last in the league in total yards and second-to-last in scoring.
Enter first-year head coach Dave Canales — Carolina’s fourth coach in the last six season — who drew rave reviews last season as the offensive coordinator for revitalized QB Baker Mayfield and the division-winning Bucs.
Ranking the 2024 NFL worst-to-first candidates: Arizona Cardinals (best-value division title odds: +1300)
2023 finish: 4-13 — 8 games behind the first-place San Francisco 49ers (12-5) in the NFC West
Last NFC West title: 2015
2024 outlook: The Cards are coming off consecutive 4-13 finishes, and the heat is increasingly on QB Kyler Murray who has led the team to only one winning season/playoff appearance (2021) in his five seasons at the helm.
To be fair, Murray did only start eight games last season after recovering from a late-2022 knee injury, and the offense was trying to compensate for one of the league’s most forgiving defenses (31st in points allowed).
There is 2024 optimism with a now-healthy Murray targeting emerging tight end Trey McBride and talented first-round draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr., but will it be enough to bypass the Seahawks (9-8 in 2023) and Rams (10-7) this season, let alone the defending NFC-champion 49ers (12-5) in the West?
Ranking the 2024 NFL worst-to-first candidates: L.A. Chargers (best-value division title odds: +350)
2023 finish: 5-12 — 6 games behind the first-place Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) in the AFC West
Last AFC West title: 2009
2024 outlook: Another young QB under pressure is the Bolts’ Justin Herbert, who has guided the team to only one postseason berth (2022) in his four seasons at the controls.
Jim Harbaugh — fresh off a national championship and some NCAA trouble at Michigan — will be the third head coach in five seasons for Herbert and Co. The Chargers also are retooling elsewhere with the departures of running back Austin Ekeler, wide receiver Keenan Allen and linebackers Eric Kendricks and Kenneth Murray.
Overtaking the Broncos and Raiders (both 8-9 last season) wouldn’t be a major accomplishment in the West, but finding a way to unseat Patrick Mahomes and the eight-time defending division-champion Chiefs is the challenge of current NFL challenges.
Ranking the 2024 NFL worst-to-first candidates: Washington Commanders (best-value division title odds: +1100)
2023 finish: 4-13 — 8 games behind the first-place Dallas Cowboys (12-5) in the NFC East
Last NFC East title: 2020
2024 outlook: As detailed in this article’s intro, no division has witnessed more worst-to-first climbs over the last two decades than the NFC East, which famously also hasn’t had a repeat division champ during that span.
So can Washington go directly from bottom to top for the fourth time in the last 22 seasons?
That’s a lot to ask of a team with a new head coach (Dan Quinn), QB (rookie Jayden Daniels) and general manager (Adam Peters), but the current NFC East heavyweights, Philly and Dallas, do have weaknesses to exploit.
Ranking the 2024 NFL worst-to-first candidates: Tennessee Titans (best-value division title odds: +1000)
2023 finish: 6-11 — 4 games behind the first-place Houston Texans (10-7) in the AFC South
Last AFC South title: 2021
2024 outlook: It’s a new-look Tennessee squad entering 2024 with coach Mike Vrabel, RB Derrick Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill replaced by Brian Callahan, Tony Pollard and Will Levis.
And while the Titans’ three AFC South foes all finished with winning records a season ago, none are infallible by any means.
Still, it does make for a demanding itinerary as Tennessee’s 2024 schedule projects as the league’s sixth toughest.
Ranking the 2024 NFL worst-to-first candidates: Chicago Bears (best-value division title odds: +340)
2023 finish: 7-10 — 5 games behind the first-place Detroit Lions (12-5) in the NFC North
Last NFC North title: 2018
2024 outlook: On the flip side of the 2024 projected schedule strength spectrum we find the Bears, who have the third-easiest slate in the league.
And that’s despite the four head-to-head games against NFC North rivals Detroit and Green Bay who each rank among the consensus top-four NFC favorites.
Chicago won four of its final six games in 2023, including a 28-13 whupping of the division-champion Lions in Week 14, and have since added top-overall pick Caleb Williams, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze and safety Kevin Byard.
Ranking the 2024 NFL worst-to-first candidates: Cincinnati Bengals (best-value division title odds: +165)
2023 finish: 9-8 — 4 games in back of the first-place Baltimore Ravens (13-4) in the AFC North
Last AFC North title: 2022
2024 outlook: Cincy fell from first to fourth last season in the AFC North as QB Joe Burrow missed the final seven games with a wrist injury and the defense slipped to 31st in yards allowed per game.
But the Bengals still finished above .500 in 2023 coming off back-to-back division titles and AFC Championship Game-plus appearances in 2021 and 2022.
Far from coincidentally, those also were the two seasons where Burrow has played more than 10 games. And if Cincy’s reinforced offensive line can keep him upright and healthy, the Bengals’ second worst-to-first AFC North ascension in the last four years is very much on the table.
