After a full decade of four-team College Football Playoffs action that revolutionized the sport, college football is set to undergo another landmark change for the upcoming 2024 season.
College football is moving to an expanded 12-team playoff format for the season on the horizon. While the previous format just took the top four teams and let them loose, the new format will need to be more structured and leveled out.
The top five conference champions will automatically qualify for a spot in the playoffs while the top four conference champions will receive a bye in the first found. The 5th through 8th-ranked teams will host their first-round matchup while teams No. 9 through No. 12 will start their run on the road.
The Orange Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl will host quarterfinal games this season while the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl host the semifinal games. The National Championship game will be played in Atlanta, GA, as will the SEC Championship game.
The expanded playoffs directly play into the favor of a team like Tennessee as the Vols project to be right on the outside of the Top 10 for the upcoming season. A spot near the Top 10 would likely indicate a potential playoff spot, though. There’s a myriad of factors that will obviously impact the final playoff list but the widespread thought is that Tennessee could be one of the contenders for a spot in the playoffs this winter.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Tennessee a 36.9 percent chance to make the playoffs, ninth-best in the country, and a 2.7 percent chance to win the national championship. As ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote on Thursday, though, Tennessee’s playoff chances ultimately come down to a few critical games spread out in the season.
“Tennessee should be better than it was last year on both offense and defense, but it still might be a three-loss team on the bubble because the schedule is so challenging,” Dinich wrote. “There are high expectations for quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who will be surrounded by talent and an offensive line that returns three starters. The defensive line should be the strength on that side, but the secondary struggled last year and will be rebuilt this season. Can the Vols win at OU, at home against Bama and at Georgia? ESPN’s FPI says they’re 0-3 against that lineup.”
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Dinich stayed on the scheduling conversation when discussing what the committee could potentially like about the Vols’ regular season run this fall. If all goes well for Tennessee, Josh Heupel’s squad could be looking at some combination of a Top 25 neutral site win over NC State, a road SEC win over Oklahoma, a home win over Alabama, or a road win over Georgia. Some of those are clearly more unlikely than others, but they’re all potential talking points for the selection committee come December.
“If the Vols are going to impress the panel, they’re going to have to do it on the road, where they will face some of their toughest competition,” Dinich continues on to write. “Tennessee could earn a nonconference win against a ranked ACC opponent Sept. 7 if it can beat NC State in the Duke’s Mayo Classic in Charlotte, North Carolina. If it doesn’t win that game, though, two of its best chances to compensate for it are Sept. 21 at Oklahoma and Nov. 16 at Georgia.”
It’s important to know that this isn’t ESPN or Heather Dinich picking Tennessee as the ninth-best team to make the playoffs next season. Instead, this is all based on ESPN’s Football Power Index ratings and rankings. Tennessee analytically trails four SEC teams including No. 1 Georgia, No. 3 Texas, No. 7 Alabama, and No. 8 Missouri. The Vols also land in front of No. 10 Oklahoma and No. 14 LSU.
In June, On3 Sports’ Andy Staples projected Tennessee as the 11-seed in the 2024 playoffs with an opening matchup against 6-seed Oregon in Autzen Stadium.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd have Tennessee at preseason No. 15 and No. 16 rankings, respectively, while Bill Connelly’s analytical SP+ rankings for ESPN have Tennessee as the No. 16 team in the country.
Tennessee kicks off the 2024 football season on Aug. 31 against Chattanooga in Neyland Stadium.
Check out the full list from ESPN’s Heather Dinich here.
