Who Are (Statistically) Tennessee Football’s Toughest Opponents?

Who are Tennessee’s toughest opponents this season?

You could make cases for a few different routes depending on your value for statistics against the eye test. For instance, the computer may love Tennessee in their contest against North Carolina State, but the location and neutral-setting game may change opinions based on what they see.

Fortunately, it’s not hard to decide Tennessee’s toughest game whether you look at it from the numbers or the eye test. The numbers say that Georgia is Tennessee’s toughest opponent as the No. 1 rated team in ESPN’s SP+ rankings and the eye test agrees with the game taking place on the road in Athens’ Sanford Stadium. The Bulldogs have the No. 1 rated overall team, the No. 2 rated offense, and the No. 5 rated defense to combine for a projected powerhouse ahead of the season.

Tennessee boasts the 21st-ranked strength of schedule, which is the fourth-easiest schedule among all 16 teams in the SEC. While the Vols do still have their normal opponents of Georgia and Alabama, Tennessee gets a good drawing with Arkansas and Mississippi State as two new opponents in the re-formatted Southeastern Conference.

Tennessee has the No. 16 overall rating in the SP+ rankings with the No. 14 offensive rating and the No. 19 defensive rating. The Vols would be their fourth toughest opponent if they were on their own schedule behind a trio of SEC teams spread out over the season.

According to ESPN’s rankings, Tennessee’s three toughest games from an analytical standpoint will be split up into all three thirds of the season based on the open dates (Tennessee will play four games, then an open date, three games, then an open date, then five games to close the season).

Tennessee’s second toughest game is against Alabama, the No. 5 rated team in ESPN’s post-spring rankings. The Crimson Tide enter the 2024 season with new head coach Kalen Deboer, the No. 7 rated offense, and the No. 8 rated defense. All eyes will be on Tuscaloosa this season as Deboer takes over for Nick Saban.

The third toughest game on Tennessee’s schedule from a numbers perspective is Oklahoma, the Vols’ fourth opponent of the season. The Sooners boast the No. 15 rated team, the No. 17 rated offense, and the No. 16 rated defense. Tennessee will mark Oklahoma’s first official SEC game as the host the Vols in front of a roaring crowd as former National Championship-winning quarterback Josh Heupel returns to Norman.

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Here’s a look at how Tennessee’s 2024 opponents shake out in ESPN’s post-spring SP+ rankings: