Saturday was a key day in SEC basketball and particularly in the conference championship race. LSU overcame a massive second half deficit to upset South Carolina in Columbia while Kentucky pulled out its best win of the season by leading wire-to-wire in an upset at Auburn.
The Gamecocks and Tigers losses combined with Tennessee’s blowout win over Vanderbilt allowed the Vols to move into sole possession of second place in the Southeastern Conference.
Now with three weeks remaining in the regular season, Alabama sits atop the SEC standings with a 10-2 record. Tennessee is a game back of the Crimson Tide at 9-3 while both Auburn and South Carolina are have a game back of the Vols at 9-4.
Florida and Kentucky are two games back in the SEC Championship race at 8-4 before another two-game drop where Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Texas A&M are sitting at 6-6.
In the standings, it’s a four-to-six team race for the SEC Championship. But according to analytical based college basketball websites, it’s really a three-team conference championship race between Alabama, Tennessee and Auburn.
According to BartTorvik.com’s Conference Title Race odds, Alabama is the definitive favorite to defend its regular season crown. Torvik gives Alabama a 73.2% chance of earning at least a share of the regular season championship and a 47.7% chance of winning the title outright.
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Tennessee has the second best odds, with a 36.5% chance of earning at least a share of conference championship and a 16.3% chance of winning the title outright. Bart Torvik only gives Auburn any real chance of earning the title— 17.1% chance of a share and a 3.4% chance of winning outright. There’s a big drop off after the top three with Florida having an 8.3% chance of earning a share and a 1.5% chance of winning outright.
According to KenPom, Alabama is projected to finish the regular season with a 14-4 SEC record while Tennessee and Auburn are projected to finish 13-5. Florida and Kentucky are both projected to finish 12-6 in conference play.
The good news for Tennessee is that they have matchups remaining against its top competition for the SEC title. After facing Missouri and Texas A&M this week, the Vols face an extremely challenging final four games of the regular season.
Tennessee hosts Auburn in Knoxville before traveling to Alabama and South Carolina before concluding the regular season at home against Kentucky.
