After a hot start to the season that had the Wildcats entrenched in championship discussions, Kentucky has begun to falter to a concerning level. They have dropped four of their last seven games and are no longer in the top 10 in the country, currently sitting at No. 22. Somehow, the Wildcats have gone from championship contenders to the NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch. With the Big Dance quickly approaching, we’re looking at the Wildcats’ SEC odds and National Championship odds ahead of their game against Auburn on Saturday, Feb. 17.
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SEC Championship Odds
The Wildcats currently sit fifth in the SEC rankings, with losses to Tennessee, Florida, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. Two of those losses have come in overtime, but two were also sizable losses at the hands of the Gamecocks and Vols. Their biggest problems in those games were offensive rebounds surrendered. In their games against Tennessee and A&M, they allowed 43 total offensive rebounds.
That’s going to be a significant challenge come time for the conference tournament as Texas A&M and Florida are one and two in the country in offensive boards per game with 15.7 and 14.3, respectively. Alabama is 26th with 11, Tennessee is 40th with 10.5, and Auburn is close behind with 10.3. The second chance looks they allow makes it challenging for them to keep pace with already prolific offenses and allows struggling offensive teams to have big nights (i.e., 103 allowed to the Vols).
Securing rebounds (which they have struggled with all season) is going to be their biggest challenge to winning the conference tournament due to how strong teams are in the category in the SEC. The scary part of their low odds to win the tournament is that it may be necessary to even have a chance to play for all the marbles in March.
National Championship Odds
The Wildcats are currently No. 22 in the country, but unfortunately for them, the season doesn’t end today. Their seven remaining games include matchups with No. 13 ranked Auburn, No. 15 ranked Alabama, and No. 8 ranked Tennessee. Also included in that stretch are road games against Arkansas and LSU. Kentucky escaped by six points at home against Arkansas back in January and has dropped three straight road games to LSU. Each of those contests are potential losses for the Wildcats, which could push them out of the AP Top 25 and could potentially keep them getting a chance to make the tournament all together.
Currently, Kentucky is 4-5 in quadrant one contests and 1-2 in quadrant two matchups, leaving the bulk of the wins against lesser opponents. They do have a serviceable number of quality wins, but they were all earlier in the season. They could potentially lose four or five of their last seven games, which may be enough for the selection committee to leave them out of the Big Dance. As of now, they still have decent odds to win it all on multiple sportsbooks, although they have climbed significantly since the start of the season, and even the new year.
In current bracketology projections, they come in as low a No. 7 or 8 seed. If the losses continue to pile up as the season nears an end, there won’t be a valid reason to give them a bid. Things are looking dire in Kentucky, and all eyes are on coach John Calipari to turn it around and avoid one of the biggest collapses in recent years.
One Response
UK best Arkansas at Arkansas. Next game at Rupp. Although no sure win as long as Cal is coaching.