Once the table was set for Super Bowl 58, the San Francisco 49ers opened as 2.5-point favorites on most of the best online sportsbooks. Since then, the point spread has slowly shifted toward the Chiefs. As of Wednesday afternoon, the spread is 49ers -1.5 or -1 depending on which sportsbook you look at. Point spreads swing all the time, but considering the devastating injury news coming out of Kansas City’s camp, a full point swing is aggressive this early on.
What could online sportsbooks be paying attention to ahead of the matchup? With Super Bowl 58 now on the horizon, we’re looking at why the 49ers could potentially end up as underdogs before kickoff. So, if you want the Chiefs on the moneyline, now is the best time to place your wager.
Super Bowl 58 Betting Odds
Here are the current offs for the big game on the top sports betting sites on the market.
Reasons why the Super Bowl 58 Point Spread Moved in Chiefs’ Favor
Brock Purdy’s Slow Starts
When you look at the numbers at surface level, 49ers QB Brock Purdy has been solid in two postseason starts. He has 519 passing yards with two touchdowns, and has completed 61.4% of his passes without throwing an interception. He has also rushed for 62 yards, many of which paid huge dividends against the Lions in their recent comeback victory. However, watching the games live tells a different story.
Against the Packers, he tossed several off-target passes that ended drives and stalled the offense in the first half. At halftime, his stat line was 9-of-15 for 86 yards and a touchdown. Fortunately for him and the 49ers, the Packers settled for two consecutive field goals in the red zone and only took six points into the half. Purdy made a few big plays late in the third and in the fourth quarter to put the 49ers over the top, but he got a lot of help from the Packers to avoid an upset in their first game.
He followed up that performance with a halftime stat line of 7-of-15 for 93 yards and one interception against the Lions. This time, it led to a 24-7 deficit at the half, which could have easily been more had the Lions settled for field goals instead of going for it on a critical third down within field goal range. Eventually, the Lions’ aggressive nature led to their unraveling. It caused mistakes to accumulate, leading to a comeback from Purdy and company. Purdy’s second half heroics won’t be as easy against the Chiefs’ defense and their Mahomes’ led offense.
49ers’ Defensive Woes
Defense has been San Francisco’s calling card in the Kyle Shanahan era. This year, although it has been solid, San Francisco may have the worst defense it has had in quite a while. In two playoff games, the 49ers are allowing 26 points per contest. They allowed second-year Packers QB Jordan Love to throw for 194 yards and two touchdowns. They forced him to throw two interceptions, one of which helped to win the game. However, that’s not a mistake Mahomes is likely to make.
They also allowed Lions QB Jared Goff to throw for 273 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. The Lions went for it on fourth down three times and only converted once. Two of those missed conversions were due to drops rather than solid defense. If even one more of the Lions’ fourth down attempts were converted, the 49ers could have been at home watching the Super Bowl rather than playing in it. The problem with opposing QBs’ impact is that they were not often rushed. Love was not sacked at all, and Goff was only sacked twice. If they are unable to get to Mahomes, the 49ers are in for a long game against the Chiefs.
Additionally, the 49ers have allowed 318 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in two playoff games. Rushing defense has been one of the team’s biggest strengths this season. They were third in stopping the rush in 2023, only allowing 89.7 rushing yards per game. During their playoff run, they allowed 136 yards to the Packers — 108 to Aaron Jones on 18 carries. They also allowed 182 to the Lions — 93 to David Montgomery on 15 carries (6.2 average).
Isiah Pacheco has been a force for the Chiefs in the playoffs, running as hard as anyone. He has accumulated 254 yards and three touchdowns in three games. If the Chiefs can get a big performance from Pacheco, the 49ers will be hard pressed to keep the Chiefs in check.
That’s two of the biggest areas of concern for San Francisco in this matchup and what could be swaying the sportsbooks. The line should continue to sway leading up to the game. The closer it gets to kick off, the more things could lean in the Chiefs’ favor as the fear of the consequences of betting against Mahomes begin to grow.
