Tennessee basketball gets a bit of a breather this week, not playing a game in the mid week before returning to the court at Vanderbilt on Saturday night.
It’s Tennessee’s first open date in conference play in over a decade and comes because the Big12/SEC Challenge is an event of the past. Every team gets an open date in the midst of the conference slate— though Kentucky is playing Gonzaga on their open date— and Tennessee’s comes just 28% of the way through the conference slate.
The Vols enter the open date 14-4 (4-1 SEC) with three lopsided home wins and a narrow road win and a narrow road loss. Tennessee is in second place in conference play coming in a game behind Auburn and tied with Alabama in second place.
What have we learned about Tennessee through five conference games? What questions are there moving forward? Where does Tennessee stand in the SEC Championship race? Let’s take a look at it in the Starting Five.
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It’s Dalton Knecht’s World
In the last edition of the Starting Five, I asked whether Dalton Knecht could be a consistent scorer for this Tennessee team. I stated that if Knecht could give Tennessee 15-plus points every time out that it would be a big plus for this team and its ability to find consistency.
In Tennessee’s first five SEC games Knecht has totaled 8, 28, 36, 39 and 25 points. A simple and efficient 27.2 points per game. That is an even better version of the Knecht we saw early this season and inspired confidence that this Tennessee team had another gear compared to the last few.
As always, consistency is the key but Knecht seems to have turned the corner since halftime at Mississippi State.
With Knecht playing like this, Tennessee is very much a SEC Championship contender and a team that could make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.
Vols Are Pivoting To A Heavier Ball Screen Offense
Rick Barnes has adapted and changed a number of things this season. Perhaps the biggest is how much ball screen offense Tennessee is running. Barnes’ teams have run pick-and-rolls at one of the lowest rates in the SEC in the past, instead leaning on off ball screening and movement to create open shots.
But Barnes is playing into his team’s strength. Knecht is very effective as a pick-and-roll ball handler, perhaps even at his best in it. Tennessee’s two other best offensive options in SEC play? Jonas Aidoo and Zakai Zeigler. Aidoo is a great pick-and-roll screener because of the way he can score within 12 feet of the basket facing the rim. Zeigler looks to get others involved out of the pick-and-roll more than Knecht does which makes him a great secondary ball handling option in the action.
Through five SEC games Zeigler is averaging 15.2 points (51 FG%, 38 3PT%) and 6.4 assists per game while Aidoo is averaging 16.2 points (58 FG%) and 8.8 rebounds per game.
Aidoo and Zeigler have become the strong secondary acts to Knecht and Tennessee is playing to the trio’s strengths on the offensive end.
Do Vescovi And James Find Extra Gears?
With Knecht, Aidoo and Zeigler scoring at a high level, someone has to be struggling offensively for Tennessee. It’s super seniors Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James.
Vescovi is averaging 6.2 points per game but is taking just six shots a game. I think these numbers are what you’re largely going to get from Vescovi the rest of the way. I think he’ll shoot it better from the perimeter than the 30% he’s shooting in SEC play this season but he’s just not going to take enough shots to score at the level he did the last two seasons.
And that’s fine. Vescovi is playing well besides the perimeter shooting and has seemingly embraced his smaller offensive role.
James is averaging just 3.8 points per game in SEC play and is just one-of-15 from three-point range. I don’t think James is going to average double-digit points in conference play but I do believe he’ll shoot it better. Before SEC play, he was having the best season of his career shooting from the perimeter.
But, similarly to Vescovi, James can make a big difference without scoring. Tennessee needs James’ defense, rebounding and versatility every game. Not his offense. Whatever he gives them on the offensive end is gravy.
Tennessee Is Going To Be Very Difficult To Beat At Home
Tennessee has played three conference games at home. They’ve won by an average of 21.7 points in those three games. Those wins came against two middle of the pack SEC teams and an Alabama team that’s just a small step down from the conference’s top group.
All that to say, Tennessee is going to be extremely tough to beat at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center. I’d pick Tennessee to finish the season unbeaten at home. The two games that create a pause are Kentucky and Auburn but especially Auburn.
Kentucky’s defensive struggles remind me too much of Alabama. I’d pick Kentucky to beat Tennessee in Rupp Arena next Saturday but I’d be surprised if the Wildcats win in Knoxville. But Auburn has the identity of the teams that have given Tennessee issues— physical and strong defensively with an elite post scorer in Johni Broome.
What Are The Most Important Road Games?
Let’s start with a quick look at the SEC title race. That’s why I’m discussing this after all. KenPom projects Tennessee and Auburn to both go 14-4 in SEC play, Alabama to go 13-5 and Kentucky to go 11-7. Going 14-4 would probably give Tennessee a conference championship split but if they want to win outright and almost be assured that they’ll get a share than 15-3 is the target number.
That makes Tennessee holding serve at home very important— particularly because its only meeting with Auburn is in Knoxville.
On the road, Tennessee has to take care of business at Vanderbilt and Missouri. Losing either game would be disastrous to their SEC title hopes. They should win at Arkansas, but Bud Walton Arena has been a house of horrors for the Vols so I’m not going to call it a layover. On the opposite end of the spectrum is South Carolina’s Colonial Life Arena. Tennessee has won four of its last five there but the Gamecocks are much better this year. That game will be a challenge much like the Georgia game was for Tennessee.
But if Tennessee is going to win the SEC then they probably need to win at Arkansas and South Carolina.
That leaves three massive games at Kentucky, Texas A&M and Alabama. All three of those games are going to be very challenging. Winning one of those would be a moderate success for Tennessee. That gives the Vols some leeway at home and with the previously mentioned road games to get to 14-4 in conference play and still gives them a chance to get to 15-3.
If they can win both of those games on the road? Now you’re talking about a team that could push for the program’s first one-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
