The Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs will conclude Wild Card Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium in what could be the coldest game in NFL history. If the Dolphins are to pull off the upset, they’ll have to do it in 5-degree weather with an expected windchill of -10 degrees. The game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on Peacock. Before kickoff, we’re looking at Chiefs vs. Dolphins betting odds, predictions, and more.
AFC Wild Card Chiefs vs. Dolphins Betting Odds
Both teams have dynamic offenses but will have to adjust significantly to move the chains in this one. The first game was decided by just a touchdown, and Saturday’s matchup should be just as competitive. The Chiefs are favorites to protect their home field, and the weather isn’t going to do the Dolphins any favors.
Dolphins’ Key Advantage
Snowy games tend to significantly hamper passing attacks, which both the Dolphins and Chiefs depend on heavily. To counter the impacts of the snow contests, teams turn to the running game to move the chains. This year, the Dolphins’ rushing attack is essentially tied for fifth best in the league in yards per game, averaging 135.8 yards per game on the ground. Their leading rusher Raheem Mostert also leads the league in rushing touchdowns. Their backup running back De’Von Achane is also in the top 15 in rushing TDs as well.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense is middle-of-the-pack at stopping the run, allowing 104.9 yards on the ground per contest. They haven’t allowed many rushing touchdowns, but Mostert crossed the pylon against them in the first matchup. The Dolphins finished the game with 21 attempts for 117 yards and a touchdown on the ground in their battle in Germany this year, and that was without Achane.
That’s an advantage that could certainly help Miami pull off the upset.
Kansas City Must Avoid Dropping the Ball at Home
The Chiefs are no strangers to the cold. They have played an abundance of home games during the winter months during the Patrick Mahomes era, having only lost one of their last 10 home games when the temperature was 40 degrees or colder, including a 4-0 playoff record. So, although they can’t run it as effectively as the Dolphins, they have proven to still be able to go to the air effectively.
However, not everyone on the team is as experienced as Mahomes in snowy games, most notably, a few members of his receiving core. That’s a concern because the Chiefs lead the league in dropped passes this year with 44, which have arguably directly led to losses at the end of close games. In a snowy contest, those challenges could surface yet again for an offense that is already limited.
Big play passing opportunities are usually far and few in between. In a game that’s expected to be tightly contested, the Chiefs can’t afford critical drops. A couple of drops is all it takes for them not to be able to keep pace with the Dolphins’ dual-threat offense.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Best Prop Bet: Raheem Mostert Anytime TD scorer (+135 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
The odds for the Dolphins’ star back to cross the goal line is a bit surprising. The Chiefs own the fourth best passing defense in the league, and they limited QB Tua Tagovailoa to fewer than 200 passing yards in the first game. They also held WR Tyreek Hill to 62 yards and no touchdowns. In snowy weather, it’s not likely to get much better for them through the air.
That should lead to an influx of attempts for their star running back, who was one of the few bright spots for them in the first game against Kansas City. Additionally, Mostert has scored 1 of his 18 touchdowns this season in the red zone for a Miami offense that scores touchdowns 65.52% of the time they make it to that part of the field.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Prediction: Miami’s Run Game Helps Pull Out Upset
The Chiefs’ offense struggled significantly to end the season, only registering 13 points in their last game against the Chargers, who own one of the worst passing defenses in the league. In a cold weather game without an electric rushing attack to lean on, they’ll have to depend on aerial attack that has proven to be unreliable.
Drops are nearly a guarantee for the Chiefs at this point, and given the weather, there could be quite a few, which will be the talk of the town at the end of the game.
Prediction: Dolphins +4.5 and Under 44 points
