The Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans will kick off Super Wild Card Weekend at 3:30 p.m. ET in Houston on Saturday, Jan. 13. The Browns are slight favorites in what’s expected to be the most tightly contested game of the weekend. From CJ Stroud’s breakout rookie campaign to Joe Flacco’s stunning return, both teams have defied the odds to get here and are among this year’s Cinderella stories. Before kickoff of the highly anticipated matchup, we’re looking at the Texans vs. Browns betting odds, predictions, and more.
AFC Wild Card Texans vs. Browns Betting Odds
The first meeting between the two ended in dominating, record-breaking fashion in favor of the Browns, but the top sportsbooks still expected this one to be much closer. The lines for this matchup are as competitive as they come this weekend and offer a lot of value for intrigued bettors.
Texans’ Good News and Bad News
In their 36-22 shellacking from Cleveland in Week 15, the Texans were without three of their four starting defensive linemen, their top safety, and, most notably, Stroud. As of now, their entire defensive line and Stroud is expected to play. They are also likely to get wide receiver Robert Woods to help boost their injury riddled receiving core against the Browns’ lights out passing defense.
With health on their side, they’ll put up much more of a contest than the last time around. Getting pressure on Flacco is where they’ll benefit the most. In the first game, they allowed Flacco to throw for 368 yards and three touchdowns. The majority of those yards went to Amari Cooper, who finished with a franchise record 265 yards and two touchdowns.
The bad news for the Texans is that the Browns still have a dominant defense, and against good defenses, Stroud hasn’t performed as well as he has against others. Against the three top passing defenses he has faced this season (Panthers, Jets, Ravens), he didn’t throw a single touchdown, leading to three games of 13 points or fewer and three losses. The Browns are the top passing defense in the league, and although he didn’t play the first time around, he has yet to show he can bring his normal performances against upper echelon defenses.
Cleveland Must Control Turnovers
Flacco has been electric for the Browns. In five games, he has thrown for 1,616 yards and 13 touchdowns. However, he has also thrown eight interceptions. With Stroud under center, the Texans are one of the best in the league at protecting the football. Houston’s turnover margin for the season is +10, as opposed to Cleveland’s -9, which is near the bottom of the league.
In the first game, the Browns kept the turnover margin balanced, which helped them win the time of possession. With Stroud under center, turnovers aren’t likely for the Texans, and with Stroud under center, Houston is better suited to make them pay for the turnovers. Statistically, the Browns’ defense has been out of this world, but they haven’t faced many QBs as good as Stroud while Flacco has been the QB and throwing interceptions at the clip he has.
Against Stroud, the Flacco won’t be able to turn it over at the same clip. If he does, he could be the cause of the end of the season he helped to save in Cleveland.
Texans vs. Browns Best Prop Bet: Dalton Schultz Anytime TD Scorer (+220 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Without their star rookie wide receiver Tank Dell, the Texans have relied heavily on Nico Collins, who has delivered significantly to help get them to this point. It isn’t likely the Browns and their top passing defense allow Collins one of the monster games he has put together in recent weeks, knowing how dependent the Texans are on his production. After Collins, Schultz is the second most targeted active player on the roster.
If the Browns have a weakness in their defense, it’s defending the tight end. Cleveland hasn’t allowed many yards to tight ends, but it is tied for the fifth most touchdowns surrendered to the position. Schultz is tied for third in red zone touchdowns among tight ends, and the Browns are dead last in stopping opponents from scoring in the red zone.
Texans vs. Browns Prediction: Houston Pulls off Narrow Upset
If you hadn’t had a chance to see Flacco play prior to this season, you may have wondered why he ever retired. The answer is because he couldn’t hold up against NFL pressure. In the first matchup, the Texans were unable to garner any due to an onslaught of injuries. That’s not the case this time around.
With a healthy defensive line, Houston should be able to wreck far more drives and force Flacco into enough turnovers to keep their star rookie in striking distance to steal a close one in the end.
Prediction: Texans 23, Browns 20
One Response
Nice Schultz prop bet!