Tennessee basketball has played two months worth of games but the real show begins on Saturday when the fifth-ranked Vols open up SEC play against No. 22 Ole Miss at Thompson-Boling Arena at Food City Center.
Rick Barnes’ ninth Tennessee team enters conference play 9-3 with its losses coming in Hawaii against No. 1 Purdue and No. 2 Kansas and on the road at No. 8 North Carolina. The Vols boast wins versus No. 9 Illinois and at No. 21 Wisconsin.
Taking a look at what we know about this Tennessee team and what questions persist as the Vols begin the conference slate in the Starting Five.
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Zakai Zeigler Is Back To Form
The last time I wrote a story in this style was after the Maui Invitational when Zeigler played very poorly. I asked about how much better he would get as he continues to work back from the knee injury that ended his sophomore season.
The answer: a lot better. Zeigler has looked like the player we saw last season ever since the second half at North Carolina.
In seven games since the Maui Invitational, Zeigler is averaging 11.7 points (43 FG%, 41 3PT%), 5.9 assists, 2.3 steals and just 1.6 turnovers.
That’s winning point guard play and it improves the play of everyone around him. He’s the energy spark on defense and the heart and soul of this Tennessee team.
The only question now is how much he can improve as the year progresses. He lost a full offseason of development. Can he push himself to greater improvements over the next two months?
Rick Barnes talked about what a good shooter he was in high school following the Norfolk State game. That was Zeigler’s reputation when he arrived at Tennessee but he’s been just a career 33% three-point shooter entering this season. He’s shot it better as of late. Let’s see if he can keep climbing
This Team Is Improved Offensively But Not Perfect
The talk of the entire offseason was about Tennessee improving offensively and they’re certainly better on that end of the court. But how much better?
Tennessee enters SEC play ranking 30th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. That would be its best finish since 2019 when they finished third and only 2022 (35th) was close to 30th. There’s lots of reasons to think Tennessee can keep it up.
They are taking care of the basketball at a high level, offensive rebounding at a strong clip and shooting it well from the foul line. Tennessee has a number of players that can beat you offensively. But it feels unlikely that they’re going to get a ton of consistency— game-in, game-out— from that group. That showed up in the Purdue and Kansas losses.
Dalton Knecht is the guy that can change that which makes him very important for this Tennessee team. More on that in a bit.
This Will Be An Eight-Man Rotation Most Nights
Tennessee’s depths and rotations have been a major point of conversation so far this season, but it’s clarified itself ahead of SEC play.
Most nights this is going to be an eight-man rotation including Zakai Zeigler, Santiago Vescovi, Jordan Gainey, Jahmai Mashack, Dalton Knecht, Josiah-Jordan James, Tobe Awaka and Jonas Aidoo.
On any given night we could see J.P. Estrella, Cade Phillips, Cam Carr or Freddie Dilione play 5-10 minutes. But their playing time will come and go. Those first eight will play 12-plus minutes nearly every night barring injury or foul trouble.
And we know what Tennessee’s best lineup is. Zeigler, Vescovi, Knecht, James and probably Aidoo but maybe on some nights Awaka. A matchup could dictate Mashack playing more minutes and Gainey could get hot but that’s the go-to group.
Tennessee might play a little bit of two big lineups but we won’t see it much. Josiah-Jordan James is playing exclusively at the four this season and is playing 72% of the minutes at that spot. Credit his rebounding and defense for making that feasible.
Will The Rebounding Hold Up In SEC Play?
With Tennessee playing smaller, one of the big questions was whether the Vols could hold up on the glass. After some early season struggles, they’ve done just that.
Tennessee ranks 94th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and 103rd nationally in the defensive rebounding percentage. Those are strong marks in general and are particularly strong marks for the lineups Tennessee is playing.
Again, credit to Josiah-Jordan James who is leading the team in rebounding with seven a game. But Aidoo has been solid, Awaka continues to shine there and Vescovi and Knecht are making it an emphasis too.
But life gets harder for Tennessee now as they enter SEC play and face more formidable front courts every night. Can they hold up? Time will tell.
Can Dalton Knecht Be The Consistent Go-To Scorer?
We hit on it in section two but my biggest question about Tennessee offensively is the unpredictability of most of its players. Out of Knecht, no one has been a super consistent scorer.
And that is fine if Knecht is a consistent 15-plus points a game scorer on relatively efficient shooting. But, that’s a big if.
Knecht averaged 19 points per game in the first nine games of the season and was the go-to guy who could ice games with his iso scoring ability. Then in the three games before Christmas, he totaled just 15 points.
Granted, the Northern Colorado transfer was nursing an ankle injury and he looked much more like himself against Norfolk State on Tuesday, scoring 15 points in just 22 minutes.
But those three games were the first chink in the armor for Knecht. If he struggles, Tennessee might not necessarily struggle offensively but they will be liable to.
It’s unfair to expect any college player to be on every night, but Tennessee needs those games to be far and few between.
