Tennessee football will go toe-to-toe with the Iowa Hawkeyes on Monday in the Citrus Bowl, who boast one of the nation’s best defenses.
On the flip side, Iowa has the worst offense in yards per game in the FBS. While it’s important to note how many Big Ten offenses Iowa’s defense has shut down, it’s just as important to note how poorly their offense has fared against mediocre Big Ten teams.
In matchups against Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nebraska, none of which won more than seven regular-season games, Iowa failed to score 16 points in any contest, despite winning four of five.
In fact, Iowa played only two opponents all year that had eight or more regular season wins: Michigan and Penn State. In those two games, the Hawkeyes were outscored 57-0.
Tennessee will be the third team on Iowa’s schedule with eight or more regular season victories.
But how is Tennessee different than any Power five team Iowa has faced this season, including the 10-win Nittany Lions and No. 1 Michigan?
They are inside the Top 50 in yards per game, as the Vols rank 16th in the nation with 453.5 yards per game.
The only other Iowa opponent from the 2023 season to rank in the Top 50 in yards per game is Utah State, who are 26th, but they are not a P5 team.
In terms of scoring offense, Tennessee is one of two P5 Iowa opponents in the Top 50, joining Michigan. Michigan is ahead of Tennessee, ranking 14th in the nation with 36.7 points per game compared to 38th with 31.5 ppg for the Vols.
More From RTI: Tennessee Football Citrus Bowl Practice Highlights
Points per game is a more commonly used metric to gauge an offense’s success over the course of the season than yards per game. But to beat Iowa, you don’t have to score a lot.
The Hawkeyes are scoring just 16.6 points per game this season. So if the Vols score 17 points on Monday, which is something they’ve done all but three times this season, they should be in good shape.
One of the biggest differences in Tennessee’s 2023 offense compared to the Hendon Hooker-led 2022 offense is red zone efficiency.
Tennessee is 73rd this season in red zone efficiency compared to 3rd in 2022. While they aren’t scoring anywhere close to the clip they were in the red zone a year ago, they are still moving the ball, and field goals will work against Iowa.
So what’s the overarching message here? Two things can be true.
Tennessee’s offense regressed significantly in 2023 compared to 2022. But if the Vols were in the Big Ten, they’d be one of the best offenses the conference has to offer.
We know Iowa won’t be able to move the ball well no matter who they play. And if Tennessee’s offense is more in the Penn State/Michigan camp rather than the Nebraska/Illinois camp – which numbers suggest they are (if not better) – the Vols shouldn’t have a difficult time earning Josh Heupel’s second consecutive bowl victory on New Year’s Day.
